Mr. Macron’s gambit rests on a fundamental miscalculation. It presupposes that France has the economic heft, military capabilities and political legitimacy to chart a truly independent course in world affairs.
By tying the Accords to the current Iran conflict, the Trump administration risks turning what was previously seen by regional states as a strategic opportunity into something approaching an unwelcome obligation. Doing so would end up serving neither the Accords nor U.S. regional policy well.
This essay by Dr. S. Frederick Starr was written for the meeting of the World Society for the Study, Preservation, and Popularization of the Culture of Uzbekistan, a body that has brought together Uzbek-sourced manuscripts from all the world’s museums. It has sent teams to the US, France, Germany, Turkey, and Japan, and has vastly expanded the known body of manuscripts from Central Asia, publishing them online and in print editions of superior quality. Dr. Starr has been a trustee since its founding in 2017.
The lesson is clear: both Trump and his successors would be wise to factor in the home front more strategically before the next U.S. military action abroad.
The Iranian regime may be down, but it is far from defeated. It is, moreover, adapting in ways that will invariably pose a problem for Western security—and a political and ideological challenge for its Muslim neighbors.