The inconsistency of US foreign policy in the Wider Middle East and Greater Central Asia is stark. Over the last three decades, American priorities have cycled erratically between supporting state sovereignty, promoting democracy and state-building, and disengagement, before reverting to re-engagement. Such unpredictable shifts only confuse allies and embolden adversaries.
With Iran facing the threat of global “snapback sanctions” this Fall over its nuclear program, the United States and its European allies have a golden opportunity to coordinate a campaign of military and economic pressure against a regime that seems increasingly concerned about its grip on power at home.
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Since the summer of 2019, Georgia has cycled through periods of crisis and partial recovery, with the increasingly kleptocratic and authoritarian Georgian Dream (GD) government developing sophisticated methods to control public discourse and opinion. The fundamental question that Western policymakers can no longer avoid is: What is more important—a democratic Georgia or a cooperative, friendly Georgia? For years, these aspirations were aligned, but today they have diverged into mutually exclusive policy pathways, each carrying profound implications for regional stability and the credibility of Western engagement.
Any pivot to Asia must prioritize a comprehensive strategy for Greater Central Asia, yet the U.S. has offered no coherent regional strategy to date. Greater Central Asia is the connective tissue bridging Europe to Asia through energy, trade, transport, and resources, a cornucopia of commercial opportunities. The region figures prominently in the strategies of U.S. adversaries for securing competitive advantage against American interests. Ignoring Greater Central Asia thus exposes the U.S. to lost opportunities and unwanted strategic surprises.