Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 35

TOKYO FIGHTS TO KEEP THE BLACK SEA GRAIN DEAL ALIVE
Japan has long played a unique role in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Diplomatically, Tokyo is aligned with Washington on key security matters. Economically, however, Japan maintains deep commercial ties to regimes that Washington is often unwilling or unable to cultivate. This dynamic was most recently displayed in Africa. Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visited Uganda and Ethiopia to advocate for reviving the Black Sea grain deal, a wartime agreement brokered in 2022 that temporarily allowed Ukraine to continue its grain exports. Moscow withdrew from the agreement in July, and food exports from Ukraine — often called the world's "bread basket" — have plummeted. Vladimir Putin has promised to make up the difference free of charge to African nations. Tokyo's diplomatic gambit is to leverage its economic influence in Africa to keep the prospect of renewed Ukrainian food exports alive. (Nikkei Asia, August 2, 2023) 

MANILA PUSHES TO FAST-TRACK DEFENSE SITES FOR WASHINGTON
Earlier this year, the Philippines authorized four additional military sites for the United States to use. In August, Philippine defense secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. called on his nation's military to speed up the pace of development. "We need to build more facilities to increase our operational tempo so we have to expedite the development of the five initial EDCA sites and four more Philippine bases with EDCA sites," Teodoro said, referring to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, the Washington-Manilla defense framework. Although unspoken, Taiwan is the primary security consideration with these new defense sites. Teodoro hinted at this when he characterized them as "essential to the integrity of our credible deterrent posture and Philippine territorial security." (Radio Free Asia, August 3, 2023) 

INDONESIA PREPARES TO SUBSIDIZE BRI RAILWAY
As is the case with many Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, Indonesia's Jakarta-to-Bandung high speed railway has been beset with construction delays and cost overruns. The venture is Indonesia's first high speed rail, and is also the first of its kind in Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) member states. Originally set for completion in 2019, the rail is now facing testing and launch delays. More significant, however, is the project's ticket price, forecasted to be double what Indonesians already pay for transit. For the deal to function, the government in Jakarta is expecting to heavily subsidize the railway to manage ticket prices. (Reuters, August 14, 2023) 

WITH AN EYE ON BEIJING, CANBERRA CALIBRATES FOREIGN AID
In a veiled effort to blunt Beijing's influence in the Pacific Island region, Australia announced a new push for climate change cooperation. The issue consistently ranks as a top-tier concern for island nations, given their susceptibility to changes in sea levels. In response, Canberra rolled out a $163 billion program in August to support private sector solutions in the region, as well as in Southeast Asia. More broadly, Australia is aiming for 80% of its global foreign aid projects to incorporate a climate change component within five years. When it comes to the Indo-Pacific, however, the focus of Canberra's efforts is centered squarely on Beijing. According to Foreign Minister Penny Wong, the challenges Australia is facing includes "encroachments on the ability of countries to exercise agency... [and] the reshaping of international rules, standards and norms that have benefited smaller countries from trade to human rights." (Nikkei Asia, August 9, 2023) 

PALAU EMPOWERS AMERICA TO POLICE ITS WATERS
In late August, the United States and Palau inked a new agreement that empowers Washington to defend Ngerulmud's territorial waters without a Palauan officer present. The measure is the latest example of the unique relationship America has with Pacific Island nations that freely associate with the U.S. for economic support and military protection, but it also reflects the level of China's encroachment into the region. Palau's President, Surangel S. Whipps Jr., has noted that Chinese warships have violated his nation's territorial waters on multiple occasions since 2021, primarily as a result of Palau's diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. Beijing's typical economic inducements — entailing a withdrawal of recognition of Taipei in exchange for economic favors — have fallen flat in Palau, but many of its regional neighbors have taken the deal. (ABC News, August 29, 2023)