Policy Papers

America’s Three-Body Strategic Mineral Problem

July 31, 2025 Kyle Kinnie American Foreign Policy Council

Control over the extraction, refining, export, and applied manufacturing of power natural resourc­es will become a key strategic goal for the U.S.—not only for maintaining a globally competitive edge but also for ensuring Great Power status in an increasingly multipolar world.

The Nine Gates of Power: China’s Passageways to the World Ocean

June 6, 2025 Kyle Kinnie American Foreign Policy Council

In December 2010, the Asahi Shimbun published a remarkable roadmap laying out the future trajectory of Chinese maritime expansion. In its analysis, the Shimbun outlined a geographically contingent thesis of Chinese geopolitical strategy—one on which the scholar Tetsuo Kotani elaborated further in a 2019 academic paper. Both publications argue that Chinese maritime access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans is effectively constrained through a series of islands and straits in the First Island Chain. These potential chokepoints constitute the “Nine Gates” through which Chinese maritime commerce and sea power must flow. 

Understanding ASEAN

March 17, 2025 Larry M. Wortzel American Foreign Policy Council

ASEAN has grown from a small, consensus-based group into a significant regional bloc, now at the center of U.S.-China competition. Its expanded scope and diverse membership make it both a key player and a complex challenge for external powers.

Identifying the Next TikTok: Which Apps Could Washington Target Next?

September 13, 2024 Joel Thayer American Foreign Policy Council

Congress passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (the Act). The Act specifically mentions ByteDance and TikTok, which means that they and their subsidiaries are required to divest. However, the law's scope is not limited to just TikTok and ByteDance. The Act broadly applies foreign ownership restrictions to apps operating within the United States. Specific attention is given in this paper to WeChat and Temu.

The Road to Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election

December 14, 2023 Larry M. Wortzel American Foreign Policy Council

On January 13, 2024, the Republic of China, also known as “Nationalist China” and Taiwan, will hold its next presidential election. This will be the eighth direct election of a president in Taiwan, the first having been held in 1996. It will also be a contest that showcases the island’s changing identity politics, shifting political preferences, and potential security challenges. 

AFPC Iran Strategy Brief no. 14: How Israel Thinks About Iran’s Future

October 4, 2023 Ilan I. Berman

For Israel, the Islamic Republic of Iran represents both a cardinal security challenge and an existential danger. The country’s current clerical regime is estimated to be connected to some “80 percent” of the contemporary security problems confronting the Jewish state.[1] These include not only Iran’s increasingly mature nuclear program, but also its extensive sponsorship of extremist proxies throughout the Mideast, as well as the radical expansionist ideology that continues to animate the regime in Tehran.