Articles

First glimpses of Tokayev’s Kazakhstan: The listening state?

September 17, 2019 S. Frederick Starr Atlantic Council

- President Tokayev seeks to "maintain continuity" yet nonetheless calls for "systemic reforms." He appears to mean both.
- In the effort to engage society more deeply in governance, Kazakhstan will institute and seek to manage reforms from above.
- In continuing the principle of balance in its foreign policy, which Tokayev invented two decades ago, Kazakhstan will seek increased engagement and investment from the West.

Future Iran nuclear deal needs stronger verification

September 11, 2019 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

This week’s revelations that the International Atomic Energy Agency found traces of uranium at an undeclared nuclear site in Iran’s Tehran Province — revelations which the regime has refused to explain — shows that the Iranian nuclear issue is far more complicated than U.S. and Iranian jockeying of recent days suggests.

Why Iran Fears Its Women

August 13, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

In late July, Mousa Ghazanfarabadi, the conservative head of Tehran's Revolutionary Court, announced publicly that the Iranian regime had identified a new "hostile government" with whom interaction was henceforth banned, punishable by up to a decade in prison.

With autocrats on defensive, US has opportunity

August 4, 2019 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

Moscow detains nearly 1,400 protesters after a bloody crackdown and returns its most prominent opposition figure to jail after what he suspects was a state-ordered poisoning that put him in the hospital. Beijing hints that it will send its army to quell protests against Hong Kong's China-backed government.

Tehran’s Risky Maritime Maneuver

July 23, 2019 Ilan I. Berman Radio Farda

Iran's strategic position atop the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global waterway through which a fifth of world oil passes, is a key asset for Tehran – and a serious worry for regional oil suppliers and foreign oil consumers alike.

Making Sense of The MeK

July 4, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

Quite simply, the MeK believes that, after forty years of active resistance, it has more “skin in the game” than any other personality or faction in the struggle against the Islamic Republic.

The Rise of Russia’s Hi-Tech Military

June 26, 2019 Samuel Bendett Fletcher Security Review

[T]he United States should be aware of key adversarial developments such as Russia’s emerging unmanned, autonomous, and AI capabilities, and prepare itself in terms of appropriate capabilities, tactics, and plans.  

The Real Iran Threat to the Strait of Hormuz (Causing Oil Prices to Skyrocket)

April 30, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

The Iranian government could wreak real havoc on the global economy not by closing the Strait outright, but rather by narrowing it. By limiting commercial traffic flowing through the crucial waterway (for example, via military exercises), the Iranian regime can successfully drive up the marginal price of world oil without providing the United States with a clear justification to act.

Ukraine’s race a sign of our time

April 13, 2019 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

Ukraine’s presidential election, in which a popular comedian with no political experience is projected to beat a seasoned incumbent with considerable baggage, reflects global trends that continue to shake the global order.

What Israel’s elections signify

April 12, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The Hill

In Israel’s latest national elections on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded in securing a decisive electoral victory despite early returns that indicated he and his conservative Likud party were behind in the polls. In truth, however, Netanyahu’s victory was always more likely than not.

Awakening From the Green Dream

April 5, 2019 InsideSources.com

Without intending it, and quite apart from the U.S. Senate’s stance, trumpet calls for a Green New Deal (GND) perversely heralds a retreat from combating climate change.