Eurasia Security Watch: No. 193
UAE poised to join the missile defense club...;
...and the nuclear club;
Egypt and Iran at it again;
Lonely in Central Asia
UAE poised to join the missile defense club...;
...and the nuclear club;
Egypt and Iran at it again;
Lonely in Central Asia
Communication blackout between the Koreas;
A more productive partner in Islamabad
(Attempted) dialogue of the deaf;
Khamenei does strategic communication;
The majles, marching toward irrelevance;
Dwindling dreams of energy independence
Irked by "
absurd"
credit terms, Moscow cancels loans from China;
Beijing keeps India border dispute simmering
India taking measures to "
cope with China's rise"
China expands space ties with Moscow, nuclear ties with Astana
Hajj row raises Saudi-Hamas tensions;
Jones plan for West Bank gets cold reception;
Turkey, EU spar over membership;
Media crackdown in Baku and Bishkek
As the conflict in Iraq winds down, the “forgotten front” of the War on Terror, Afghanistan, has moved back into the forefront of the national security debate. Operation Enduring Freedom-Afghanistan (hereafter OEF) is aptly named, since the conflict will endure long into the next administration. Whoever takes the oath of office in January of 2009 will face the same types of challenges in Afghanistan that have bedeviled the current administration since 2001, and to an extent have been characteristic of Afghan politics for decades.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has three phobias," according to Iranian expatriate journalist Amir Taheri. "Women, Jews and America." Forget bombs. Maybe we should send in Barbra Streisand.
Syrian nuke site revealed;
Iraq happy, Turks nervous about SOFA;
Looking for land routes in Central Asia;
Kuwait cabinet resigns... again
An Internet offensive;
Iran's new naval base;
If you can't beat them, join them;
Iran's inexorable march toward the bomb
Russia's corrupt military;
Back to business as usual with Europe, NATO
Chinese censorship spills over into Indonesia;
China's military making rounds with allies abroad
A nuclear sponsor for Chavez;
A spooked NATO slows its push east
Vodka: a casualty of the global economic crisis;
Russia's secret archives slam shut
China looks to Asian solutions for financial crisis;
Iran wants into SCO - China has "
no problem"
As the president-elect begins to weigh the carrots and sticks he can employ when dealing with the Middle East, he will run into the question of how to handle Syria. Bashar Assad was the first to reach out with a telegram to Barack Obama on November 7 that "expressed hope for constructive dialogue so that the difficulties can be overcome which have hampered the advance of peace, stability and progress in the Middle East."
The case for space-based defense;
A plea for continued attention;
Hezbollah's growing arsenal
Syria and Lebanon trade accusations;
Report: U.S. and allies vulnerable in the Gulf;
Religious authorities take a stand against the headscarf
Taiwan mulling first military-to-military contacts with mainland;
India irked by China's support for insurgents in NE
New reactors for New Delhi;
Kyiv in the energy crosshairs
Arming Pakistan's tribes;
Toward detente with the Taliban?
What should the next administration do about Iran? During the 2008 presidential campaign, Sen. Barack Obama advocated the need for direct negotiations as a way of addressing the Iranian regime's persistent nuclear ambitions. And since his electoral victory, the president-elect has given every indication that he intends to initiate a diplomatic dialogue with Tehran after he assumes office on Jan. 20.
Gas OPEC gathers steam;
Dissension in the military ranks
Desperately seeking a financial fix;
Russia's beleaguered liberals band together
A challenge to Jiang's legacy;
Defection highlights corruption problem
During the presidential campaign Vice President-elect Joe Biden predicted, "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy." This wasn't just another gratuitous allusion to the impending Camelot 2.0, but an apt comparison. A new, young president is a standing temptation to foreign powers seeking to find his limits.
Premier Wan under fire from own party;
Sudanese rebels target China's interests
Islamists in Saudi face their day in court;
Hezbollah in our Hemisphere;
Kazakhstan eases Coalition burden;
Creeping progress on Nagorno-Karabakh
Iranian coalition-building;
Israel thinks the unthinkable;
Hard times for Ahmadinejad;
An Indo-Iranian divorce?
November 7 marks the first anniversary of the Georgian government's use of force to break up peaceful opposition demonstrations in the heart of Tbilisi. Opposition groups have announced renewed public action against President Mikheil Saakashvili on that date, with the added objective of bringing him to account for his disastrous military confrontation with Russia in August. Georgia's image in the West as a developing democracy will be influenced by the ability of the government and the opposition to mark this anniversary in a peaceful manner.
An early test for Obama;
Putin for president once again?
China-Russia border disputes "
closed"
Pakistan seeks its own nuclear deal with China
AMID TENSIONS, INDIA FORTIFIES BORDER WITH CHINA...;
... WHILE CHINA LOOKS TO PLAY THE KASHMIR CARD;
BANGLADESH SHUTS THE DOOR ON HIZB-UT TAHRIR;
MRAP GETS A MAKEOVER FOR AFGHANISTAN
New energy links to China;
Qadhafi comes calling
Washington plans for new nuclear deal with Russia...;
...as Moscow rejects missile defense talks...;
...and arms its allies;
The "
third site"
in stasis;
Israeli sea-based defenses come online
Sectarian war of words;
Tajikistan fed up with Salafis;
Rare criticism for clerics in Saudi Arabia;
A game-changing gas find in Turkmenistan
A new nuclear partnership with India;
Taking a different tack toward the Taliban
With oil high, China turns to coal;
Party mouthpiece delineates "
noninterference"
principles
Moscow blocks Google push into Russian market;
Ukraine closes door on Russian Black Fleet lease extension
Russia, Iran, and Qatar to form gas cartel;
Venezuela eyes Russian tanks as arms exports on rise
Give the Kremlin credit for ambition. Just weeks after its invasion of Georgia ignited a major conflict in the Caucasus and dramatically altered the status quo in the 'post-Soviet space', the Russian government appears to have set its sights on another strategic prize.
Politkovskaya trial begins;
Capital flight fails to dent defense budget
China to help Pakistan with 10 nuke plants;
North Korea shells Chinese fishing boat
Iran's preconditions for dialogue;
Wooing Sistani;
Fiscal fixes, and their discontents;
Ahmadinejad's challengers begin to emerge
Damascus tightens Internet controls;
Russian advances in Central Asia...;
...and the Gulf;
Syrian-Saudi cold war continues
These must be heady days for Iran’s ayatollahs. Just a year ago, American efforts to contain and isolate the Islamic Republic seemed to be gathering steam. A third UN Security Council resolution censuring Iran for its nuclear advances was on the horizon, and the Bush administration could claim headway on the creation of a regional coalition of Sunni Arab states to counteract Iran’s growing clout. Today, however, things are very different. Western efforts to control and contain the Islamic Republic have clearly faltered, while Iran’s march toward the bomb gives every indication of having accelerated.
Over the past few years we have been witnessing the slow rolling defeat of the United States at the hands of North Korea. In the past six years this charter member of the Axis of Evil, a country with a nominal GDP slightly less than Aruba — and GDP per capita one-thirteenth that of the island paradise — has gone from being an isolated remnant of Stalinist political theory in action to joining the nuclear club and becoming a major weapons-of-mass-destruction proliferator. This took place while the United States asserted that North Korea should not, must not, will not be allowed to go nuclear, but obviously could not figure out how to get the North to cooperate.
Moscow feels the pinch from financial crisis;
Duma rep signals (slight) preference for Obama
The growing China challenge;
Russia cooperates, after a fashion;
Strengthening Israeli defenses;
Pyongyang behaving badly