Publications

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 176

May 11, 2008

Syria,nukes, and North Korea;

In Iraq, two steps forward;

Pipelines and Politics in Central Asia;

PKK threatens Washington;

A Europe-Afghan railroad in the works?

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Eurasia Security Watch: No. 175

April 14, 2008

Syria's Cyber-Crackdown;

Jordan's Military Gesture;

AKP Mounts Constitutional Defense;

Central Asia and NATO: Hedging Bets;

Energy, internests bind gulf and China

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Bad Timing In Basra

April 7, 2008 James S. Robbins National Review Online

What a difference eight months makes. Last September, General David Petraeus was essentially branded a liar for reporting to Congress that the situation in Iraq was improving markedly, that the so-called “surge” strategy was achieving its intended aims. Today, the general returns with more good news: violence in the country down 75 percent; Sunni sheiks cooperating with the government and Coalition (the “Anbar awakening”); and al-Qaeda in Iraq severely weakened and on the run. Unfortunately, General Petraeus will no doubt have to contend with a barrage of questions about the recent weeks’ fighting in Basra and Baghdad.

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Small Steps: Iraq Edges Toward a Stable Future

April 1, 2008 Ilan I. Berman Jane's Defence Weekly

Slowly but surely, Iraq is turning a corner. In February, the Iraqi parliament approved two major measures aimed at normalising that country's fractious political scene. As significant as it is, however, this progress represents just one part of a larger picture. Indeed, future stability in Iraq may hinge as much on what transpires on two other strategic fronts as it does on the events now taking place in the so-called 'Sunni Triangle'.

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An Obsolete Alliance

March 31, 2008 E. Wayne Merry The Journal of International Security Affairs

It is axiomatic that nothing in government is so long lasting as temporary measures. Policies, programs and appropriations initiated to respond to a transitory issue take on lives of their own, spawning institutions which not only outlive their purpose but themselves create new problems to justify their continued existence. On the international stage today, the most egregious example of this principle is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). An alliance created in response to the devastation of the Second World War in Europe and the onset of the Cold War is now approaching its seventh decade, two generations beyond the restoration of Europe’s economy plus a large measure of European unity and a full generation beyond Gorbachev’s acceptance of failure in the Cold War.

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Eurasia Security Watch: No. 173

March 24, 2008

Brotherhood cries foul in upcoming elections;

The softer side of Erdogan;

A monster is freed in Jordon;

The PKK mafia;

Liberal "

apostates"

under fire in Saudi Arabia

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Quiet Victory?

March 19, 2008 James S. Robbins National Review Online

Has it really been five years since the advent of Operation Iraqi Freedom? The war has gone on far too long, and been far too expensive. The mistakes made in the crucial transition period from major combat operations to “Phase Four” stability operations will be reviewed and debated for decades. But as the president pointed out in his Iraq-war anniversary speech at the Pentagon Wednesday, the comprehensive “surge” strategy has been working. The surge has been a runaway good-news story. And there is no more certain sign of progress in the war than its disappearance from media coverage. Stories on Iraq comprised only 3 percent of the news in the first ten weeks of 2008, compared to 23 percent a year ago — an 87 percent drop. “Good news” has turned out to be an oxymoron. No bleed, no lede.

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Turf War

February 29, 2008 Ilan I. Berman The Journal of International Security Affairs

It has been nearly five years since President George W. Bush stood on the deck of the U.S.S Abraham Lincoln and announced the end of major combat operations in Iraq. During that time, the United States has gotten a first-hand education in the complex ideological and religious frictions that simmer below the surface in the Muslim world. And while the Bush administration’s “surge” has now helped the Coalition regain the initiative in the former Ba’athist state, it has become abundantly clear that if Washington and its allies hope to maintain—and, better yet, to expand—their influence in the region as a whole, they still have a great deal to learn about what makes its inhabitants tick.

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