Articles

Can Europe arm itself?

February 29, 2024 E. Wayne Merry AFPC Insights

There is no question that many European countries badly — very badly — need to restore their force structures and defense industries. However, they now need to do so within a time frame shorter than it would take to establish an EU-wide procurement system and czar, let alone to alter the bloc’s funding priorities.

Don’t Count On China To Curb Iran

February 1, 2024 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Contrary to what the Biden administration might hope, it's not really in Beijing's interest to rein in Tehran or its proxies. To the contrary, the Islamic Republic's increasingly aggressive regional profile is deeply beneficial to the PRC.

How America Can Still Cripple TikTok

January 23, 2024 National Review

Biden's deputies and political advisers consider TikTok a crucial tool for messaging and get-out-the-vote efforts in the general election. But it’s a cost the president should be willing to pay.

A New Spring for Caspian Transit and Trade

October 18, 2023 Svante E. CornellBrenda Shaffer CACI Analyst Feature Article

Major recent shifts, starting with the Taliban victory in Afghanistan and Russia’s war in Ukraine have led to a resurgence of the Trans-Caspian transportation corridor. This corridor, envisioned in the 1990s, has been slow to come to fruition, but has now suddenly found much-needed support. The obstacles to a rapid expansion of the corridor’s capacity are nevertheless considerable, given the underinvestment in its capacity over many years.

A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

September 8, 2023 S. Frederick Starr The Kyiv Post

Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act. Is it not high time for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy to do his job and bring Burns and Sullivan under oath to account for their private and secretive talks with Putin?

Moscow’s African Footprint In Flux

August 29, 2023 Matt Cesare AFPC Insights

Africa undeniably represents a major strategic prize... Russia’s extensive investments – especially in light of its ongoing war in Ukraine – reflect a recognition of this reality. Yet how its African profile evolves in the years ahead will depend a great deal on its ability to continue to build ties with, and quell doubts in, regional capitals on the continent.

The Risks Of Israel’s Judicial Reform

July 25, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Messenger

“[T]he basis of [U.S.] support” for Israel, longtime U.S. diplomat and Israel watcher Dennis Ross wrote back in 2015, “is driven by the perception of Israel as a country that shares America’s values... The last thing Israel needs now is to have its basic democratic character called into question.”

US Needs More Holistic Response to Emerging Axis

July 12, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Messenger

With NATO’s latest gathering this week in Vilnius, Washington is understandably focused on what the United States and its allies should do next to help Ukraine rebuff Russia. Moscow’s invasion, however, is part of a larger, multi-nation challenge to which Washington has not yet developed a comprehensive response.

That challenge is the axis of deepening diplomatic, military, and economic cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran. Washington is responding to individual provocations in ways that seem to contradict one another.

The Fallout From Prigozhin’s Putsch

July 5, 2023 Ilan I. Berman The Messenger

[T]he long-term consequences of Prighozin’s power play are liable to be profound. Here are a trio of what could be the most consequential for Russian foreign policy — and for Western nations now marshalling a response to its aggression, both in Europe and beyond.

Turkey’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble

June 28, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

These are heady days for Turkey's president. Last month, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country's larger-than-life strongman, eked out an electoral win over opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to secure a third five-year term in office. In the process, he dashed the hopes of many in the West for a more democratic turn on the part of NATO's only Middle Eastern member.

End Game in Central Asia

June 26, 2023 S. Frederick Starr AFPC Insights

Central Asians have no intention to roll back their ties with their large neighbors, but seek rather to balance them with ties with the West... America now has before it what may be the last, best chance to prevent the region from being dominated by autocratic outsiders.

A Roadmap for Taking on Tehran

June 23, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas Newsweek

With Washington resuming indirect talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal in the United States and abroad are raising legitimate fears that Washington will provide the Islamic Republic with sanctions relief while getting little, if anything, in return. And who can blame them?