Articles

The Fallout From Prigozhin’s Putsch

July 5, 2023 Ilan I. Berman The Messenger

[T]he long-term consequences of Prighozin’s power play are liable to be profound. Here are a trio of what could be the most consequential for Russian foreign policy — and for Western nations now marshalling a response to its aggression, both in Europe and beyond.

Turkey’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble

June 28, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

These are heady days for Turkey's president. Last month, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country's larger-than-life strongman, eked out an electoral win over opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to secure a third five-year term in office. In the process, he dashed the hopes of many in the West for a more democratic turn on the part of NATO's only Middle Eastern member.

End Game in Central Asia

June 26, 2023 S. Frederick Starr AFPC Insights

Central Asians have no intention to roll back their ties with their large neighbors, but seek rather to balance them with ties with the West... America now has before it what may be the last, best chance to prevent the region from being dominated by autocratic outsiders.

A Roadmap for Taking on Tehran

June 23, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas Newsweek

With Washington resuming indirect talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal in the United States and abroad are raising legitimate fears that Washington will provide the Islamic Republic with sanctions relief while getting little, if anything, in return. And who can blame them?

Seeing Our Adversaries With Clear Eyes

June 9, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas 19fortyfive.com

To be sure, our leaders must engage not just with democratic allies but with autocrats in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and elsewhere. Presidents are wise to seek meetings in which to enunciate our values, delineate our priorities, glean what we can from our adversaries, and seek cooperation when possible.

The Ukraine Peace Offensive

June 2, 2023 James S. Robbins AFPC Insights

In some respects, the diplomatic peace offensive is as important as the Ukrainian ground offensive, because conflict termination will ultimately come from the bargaining table and not the battlefield. This phase of the conflict is critical.

New Rules in Israel’s North

May 16, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Between mid-March and mid-April, Israel's northern frontier experienced its worst spasm of instability in over a decade-and-a-half. On March 13, an armed extremist connected to Hezbollah infiltrated the country and blew up a car at the Megiddo junction, some 50 miles south of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Three weeks later, over the Passover holiday, the Hamas terrorist group launched a salvo of 36 rockets from Lebanese territory against towns and civilian populations in the western Galilee, wounding several and damaging local infrastructure. Two days after that, rockets were launched at Israel from Syria as well.

Israel needs to refocus abroad

April 24, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

“Never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying himself,” Napoleon once said. That’s a lesson Jerusalem needs to learn quickly, and Washington needs to reinforce, as Israel’s regional challenges escalate while the Jewish state is splintering over an ill-timed debate on judicial reform.

Russia’s Independent Media Diaspora Needs Our Support

April 18, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

With the outbreak of the Ukraine war more than a year ago, Russia's already unfree media sphere has constricted precipitously. New regulations and constraints imposed by a Kremlin desperate to control the narrative about its "special military operation" have made independent journalism virtually impossible inside the country, and precipitated a mass exodus of journalists, producers, and opposition media figures to locations in Europe and beyond.

Ukraine remains at heart of freedom’s future

March 29, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

“The global struggle for democracy approached a possible turning point in 2022,” Freedom House writes in its latest annual report on political rights and civil liberties around the world. “There were signs … that the world’s long freedom recession may be bottoming out, which would set the stage for a future recovery.”

Parsing Russian Support for Putin’s War

February 20, 2023 Ilan I. Berman The Hill

Just how solid is the domestic backing for Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine? For months, Western observers have pondered the question, amid signs that — despite an expanding array of onerous sanctions and restrictions imposed by the U.S. and Europe — internal backing for the “special military operation” initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin last February remains high.

A New Page in the Russo–Iranian Partnership

February 15, 2023 Ilan I. Berman The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

In July 2022, against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin embarked on a notable foreign trip. Amid mounting international censure and growing hostility from the outside world, Putin traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials and formally usher in a new phase in the long-running strategic partnership between the two countries.

The View From Kyiv

February 6, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas AFPC Insights

Pursuing its version of victory, Ukraine has a bold vision for the future. For Russia, it seeks a thorough defeat, one that will prevent future Russian aggression against Ukraine or nearby states.

Costs associated with U.S. not supporting Ukraine are steep

January 10, 2023 Herman Pirchner, Jr. The Washington Times

With few exceptions, aiding Ukraine in its efforts to push back against Russian aggression continues to enjoy broad bipartisan support, both in Congress and among the American public. But precisely how much Washington can and should underwrite Kyiv’s war effort has become something of a political football — especially among conservatives. The arguments are varied and range from worries over fraud to accusations of misplaced priorities. Each has its grounding in legitimate concerns. Yet each fails to grasp the significance of what is at stake in the current fight against Russia’s imperialist ambitions.

Russia’s Propaganda Is More Persuasive Than We Think

January 5, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

The current triumphalism among many in the West regarding the decline of Russian disinformation is somewhat premature. That's because, while Russian propaganda outlets are now having a more difficult time reaching European nations, they're still making major gains in advancing the Kremlin's position—and eroding that of the West—throughout the developing world.

Joe Biden’s Approach To Eurasia Is Stuck In The Past

December 22, 2022 Svante E. Cornell 19fortyfive.com

With considerable pomp and circumstance, the Biden administration recently unveiled its signature National Security Strategy. The document, intended as an authoritative expression of the Administration’s priorities in the field of foreign affairs, pays extensive attention to the great power challenges posed by China and Russia, framing them as the greatest threats to contemporary American security.

Signs of a global democractic revival?

November 20, 2022 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

These developments provide a timely reminder (after a nearly two-decade-long decline of freedom and democracy around the world) that people who live under, or are threatened by, authoritarian rule will take great risks for freedom — and that those who live in free societies may treasure their freedom more than we realized.