It is hard to think of a United Nations agency with a more glaring failure in its core mission than the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, more commonly known as UNIFIL — and there has certainly been no shortage of contenders this year.
While global leaders pressure Israel to explain its plans for Gaza after its war with Hamas ends, Palestinian leaders are doing their own planning for that day – and recent developments on that front should raise concerns about prospects for long-term peace between Israel and a future government in Gaza.
Israel Mulls Its Iran Options: With considerable trepidation, the Middle East, and indeed the wider world, is awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s massive October 1st missile barrage on the Jewish state. The White House, fearful of a wider regional war, is exerting massive (albeit mostly quiet) pressure for Jerusalem to limit its retaliation to something “proportionate” that doesn’t target either Iran’s nuclear program or its energy sites.
As the war in Ukraine heads toward its third anniversary, the question on the minds of many Americans is, why do the Ukrainians keep fighting? The conventional wisdom argues that after nearly three years of killing, the war must end — something possible only through the surrender of Ukrainian land occupied by Russian forces. Yet polls consistently find that nearly 70% of Ukrainians oppose ceding land for peace. Why? Because giving up land means surrendering to life under Russian occupation. Ukrainians know from history what that means; to prevent it, they are willing to endure the deaths of thousands more of their soldiers and the destruction of many of their cities and towns.
It is now – even amid a bitter presidential campaign – that U.S. leaders should stand four-square behind Israel, giving it the leeway to protect itself as it sees fit rather than adding to the morally confused carping from abroad.
Whoever ends up winning the White House next month will need to reframe the way America thinks about Great Power Competition in order to adequately respond to the collective threat now posed by Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. Doing so will begin by answering a fateful question—Is the United States still prepared to serve as the "arsenal of democracy"?
During the vice presidential debate between Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), viewers in the People’s Republic of China experienced a broadcast interruption. When the CBS moderators asked Gov. Walz about discrepancies regarding his story of being in China during the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the video feed throughout China cut to an error screen. This “error” was, of course, the latest instance of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) censors silencing speech about sensitive topics within China.
On Sept. 4, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs announced that China would no longer carry out foreign adoption work, except for a few narrow exceptions. In turn, the U.S. Department of State notified American families, many of whom had already been matched with children in China years ago and were just waiting to bring their kids home.
With this devastating announcement, China has nullified the bond that American families had with their waiting children. For the families affected, it is a waking nightmare. For the U.S., it is the latest failure of Washington to tame the worst impulses of the Chinese Communist Party.
President Biden recently declared that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not doing enough to reach a deal with Hamas to free the hostages the terrorist organization has been holding since last Oct. 7. This pronouncement was both ill-targeted and ill-timed, proving once again that Washington often doesn’t know when and when not to meddle in the affairs of other nations.
As Georgia approaches parliamentary elections in October 2024, the South Caucasus state stands at a pivotal juncture. The growing authoritarian tendencies of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party threaten to derail the nation’s democratic progress, and its aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration. In this critical moment, the United States needs to act decisively by leveraging congressional measures to support Georgia’s democratic institutions and counter authoritarian influences there.
The more nations there are connected to China's satellites, the smaller the global audience share left for Starlink or other Western conglomerates will be. Conversely, if Starlink succeeds in its current bid to make gains in places like Africa and Latin America, it will create an inherently pluralistic, open global media environment—one in which it will be much more difficult for the PRC to propagandize, isolate, and influence. Only one of those pathways benefits American security. It's up to policymakers in Washington to empower it.
What all this might mean for Russia is still too early to tell. Policymakers in Moscow have initiated an array of measures in response to the Ukrainian incursion, ranging from declaring a state of emergency in Kursk as well as the neighboring Belgorod region, surging troops into the area, and creating new administrative units to manage the crisis). Still, as NATO officials have noted, Russia’s official response has been “slow and scattered” — at least so far. Whether it stays that way is still an open question.
Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has taken its fight with the Kremlin onto Russian soil. Kyiv’s offensive consisted of a daring raid into Russia’s Kursk region designed to bring the fight to Russian forces and draw the Kremlin’s combat troops away from its own territory. Aside from a few headlines, though, Ukraine’s bold strategic gamble has gone largely unnoticed. That’s a shame because Kyiv’s initiative—and Moscow’s response to it—has made clear that persistent Western fears of Russian brinkmanship are overblown.
The Republic of Georgia faces a critical juncture ahead of parliamentary elections in October 2024 as escalating political tensions, driven by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party's increasingly authoritarian tendencies, threaten the country’s democratic future and its pro-Western trajectory. This situation demands a nuanced understanding of Georgia's complex political landscape and a strategic response from Western partners.
Whatever the cause, this sense of momentum has led the Kremlin to rebuff recent Ukrainian peace overtures, and to stake out a maximalist position as a prerequisite for any negotiations with Kyiv. But Moscow's triumphalism masks a more sobering reality—by almost every empirical measure, Russia's war of choice has proven ruinous for the Kremlin.
Under a landmark U.S.-Saudi security deal that the Biden administration is reportedly finalizing, the United States could be closer than ever to jumpstarting Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program –– and brushing off more than a decade of warnings not to.
Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has experienced a massive population exodus.
The new agreement between the terrorist group Hamas and Fatah, the political party of the Palestinian Authority, to form a unity government would — if implemented — threaten Israel, hurt the Palestinian people and create new obstacles to Israeli-Palestinian peace. No one who seeks peace should support it.
…supporting an enhancement of India's naval capabilities marks the logical next step. It aligns with America's interest in countering an increasingly assertive China, and it helps to deepen the already-robust bilateral ties between Washington and New Delhi.
Up to now, Washington and its international partners have been loath to retaliate forcefully to Houthi aggression, fearful of precipitating a wider Mideast war. But the lack of a serious Western response has only emboldened the Houthis further, to the point where the group is now threatening to target America's regional presence directly.
As such, the current discussion about strengthening lines of communication is little more than political theater.
Since the U.S.'s abrupt departure from Afghanistan, the Taliban government has opened exten- sive contacts with China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Gulf States and some have elevated their ties to the ambassadorial level. No region has more at stake in Afghanistan's evolution than Central Asia and none follow developments there more closely. The U.S. should expand its C5+1 ties with Central Asia to include the sharing of information and discussion of policy choices re- garding Afghanistan. Europe and other friendly powers should do likewise.
Nor would Pezeshkian be the first “moderate” Iranian president to disappoint those hoping for real change in Tehran.
Iran's involvement is just part of a much larger story. All of the available evidence suggests that today's "pro-Palestine" activism is an instrument of statecraft—one that is actively being weaponized against the U.S. by an array of hostile actors.
This week’s NATO summit in Washington is, by any measure, a grand affair, full of the pomp and ceremony befitting the bloc’s 75th anniversary. It also offers up a useful opportunity to reflect on the state of the most successful military alliance in history.
Deterrence and containment are as critical to U.S. global strategy today as they were during the Cold War. NATO has been a lynchpin in that strategic effort.
Thus, the U.S. approach to an Israel-Hezbollah war – i.e., the extent to which Washington sticks by its closest regional ally as deaths mount in southern Lebanon – will have huge implications for the strategic calculations to come in Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing as they each plot their next expansionist moves.
In other words, the Palestinian Authority is asking the international community to empower one failed state to rebuild another.
The league’s latest behavior continues its thoroughgoing capitulation to China in pursuit of profit.
It has become painfully clear that America is losing the information war in the Middle East.
On one hand, the proposal would not put Hamas permanently out of business, which makes it a non-starter for Israel. On the other hand, it would “not allow Hamas to re-arm,” which makes it a non-starter for a terrorist organization that – along with its state sponsor in Tehran and fellow terrorist groups in the Iranian-directed “axis of resistance” – seems emboldened by October 7.
Set aside for a moment the moral dimensions of rewarding Hamas’s October 7 atrocities with Palestinian sovereignty. The other problem, which does not get nearly enough attention, is the new legal and political status quo that would prevail between Israel and the Palestinians once statehood kicks in.
U.S. policymakers have rightly focused on the need to turn Taiwan into a "porcupine"—that is, giving it sufficient weaponry to deter potential Chinese aggression. However, the island's current insecure energy status is a potentially fatal vulnerability as well—one that, if left unaddressed, might invite hostility from Beijing.
When they look across the Middle East and beyond, Iran and its terrorist minions in the “axis of resistance” must be happy with what they see – a global community that not only refuses to confront their aggression but actually rewards it, laying the groundwork for more war down the road.
President Biden has been pressing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to invade Rafah, Hamas’ last stronghold, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken in recent days blasted Jerusalem for lacking a plan to protect civilians in Gaza. Washington even offered to help Israel gather the intelligence to pinpoint the whereabouts of Hamas officials if Jerusalem abandoned its invasion plans.
After Xi Jinping took power in China in 2012, he promptly began a series of purges and ideological crackdowns that have set the tone for his rule.
On April 13th, the "shadow war" that has raged between Israel and Iran for decades finally broke into the open. That day, Iran's clerical regime fired over 300 drones and missiles at Israeli territory in retaliation for Israel's targeting of a top Iranian military commander in Syria days earlier. The massive Iranian attack, and Israel's limited response days later, has ushered in an ominous new "balance of terror" in the Middle East.
What might Moscow’s endgame be? The ultimate goal seems to be to recreate a Russia-dominated “Union” state that at least some, if not all, of the former Soviet republics will be forced to join.
The global push to stop the bloodshed in Gaza is understandable. But a push that solely pressures the original victim of attack (Israel) and demands nothing significant of the perpetrator (Hamas) will just embolden the latter.
And at home, Iranian regime officials—who not long ago were on the back foot in the face of sustained grassroots protests—have redoubled their domestic repression, launching a sweeping national plan to enforce restrictions on female dress and conduct. What accounts for this reversal of fortune? A great deal can be attributed to permissive American policy.
All proposed solutions to the deterrence problem on the Taiwan Strait require the United States to modernize and expand manufacturing facilities and infrastructure to increase the production and availability of military hardware.
Our most significant achievement during those years was fostering unmediated contact between Western scholars and Soviet social scientists working in the vast network of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The effect was like opening the window of a sealed room.
Instead of hasbara, Israel would do well to embrace a new approach to strategic communications built around speed, engagement, and influence.
While Moscow claims that it wants to replace the “rules-based international order” with a fairer system for all, Russia’s day-to-day behavior seems more appropriate for a rules-free system—one where right is determined simply by muscle and the nerve to use it.
If the Biden administration is intent on keeping the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in place, it would do well to make its existence contingent on a meaningful crackdown against Hezbollah.
Israel and the United States cannot afford to dismiss Iran’s escalatory strike on Saturday as a mere demonstration.
In tandem with its military offensive against Hamas, however, Israel has experienced a deeper strategic shift. A sea change is now taking place in Israel’s approach to security affairs, informed by the errors and miscalculations that made the atrocities of October 7th possible.
Iran is making a serious play for Sudan, and it merits attention from Washington.
Holding back support of aid to Ukraine for fear of worse to come from Russia is a surefire way to ensure that Moscow presses its advantage and engages in still more rogue behavior.