Articles

A New Spring for Caspian Transit and Trade

October 18, 2023 Svante E. Cornell, Brenda Shaffer CACI Analyst Feature Article

Major recent shifts, starting with the Taliban victory in Afghanistan and Russia’s war in Ukraine have led to a resurgence of the Trans-Caspian transportation corridor. This corridor, envisioned in the 1990s, has been slow to come to fruition, but has now suddenly found much-needed support. The obstacles to a rapid expansion of the corridor’s capacity are nevertheless considerable, given the underinvestment in its capacity over many years.

A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

September 8, 2023 S. Frederick Starr The Kyiv Post

Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act. Is it not high time for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy to do his job and bring Burns and Sullivan under oath to account for their private and secretive talks with Putin?

Moscow’s African Footprint In Flux

August 29, 2023 Matt Cesare AFPC Insights

Africa undeniably represents a major strategic prize... Russia’s extensive investments – especially in light of its ongoing war in Ukraine – reflect a recognition of this reality. Yet how its African profile evolves in the years ahead will depend a great deal on its ability to continue to build ties with, and quell doubts in, regional capitals on the continent.

The Risks Of Israel’s Judicial Reform

July 25, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Messenger

“[T]he basis of [U.S.] support” for Israel, longtime U.S. diplomat and Israel watcher Dennis Ross wrote back in 2015, “is driven by the perception of Israel as a country that shares America’s values... The last thing Israel needs now is to have its basic democratic character called into question.”

US Needs More Holistic Response to Emerging Axis

July 12, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Messenger

With NATO’s latest gathering this week in Vilnius, Washington is understandably focused on what the United States and its allies should do next to help Ukraine rebuff Russia. Moscow’s invasion, however, is part of a larger, multi-nation challenge to which Washington has not yet developed a comprehensive response.

That challenge is the axis of deepening diplomatic, military, and economic cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran. Washington is responding to individual provocations in ways that seem to contradict one another.

The Fallout From Prigozhin’s Putsch

July 5, 2023 Ilan I. Berman The Messenger

[T]he long-term consequences of Prighozin’s power play are liable to be profound. Here are a trio of what could be the most consequential for Russian foreign policy — and for Western nations now marshalling a response to its aggression, both in Europe and beyond.

Turkey’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble

June 28, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

These are heady days for Turkey's president. Last month, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country's larger-than-life strongman, eked out an electoral win over opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to secure a third five-year term in office. In the process, he dashed the hopes of many in the West for a more democratic turn on the part of NATO's only Middle Eastern member.

End Game in Central Asia

June 26, 2023 S. Frederick Starr AFPC Insights

Central Asians have no intention to roll back their ties with their large neighbors, but seek rather to balance them with ties with the West... America now has before it what may be the last, best chance to prevent the region from being dominated by autocratic outsiders.

A Roadmap for Taking on Tehran

June 23, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas Newsweek

With Washington resuming indirect talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal in the United States and abroad are raising legitimate fears that Washington will provide the Islamic Republic with sanctions relief while getting little, if anything, in return. And who can blame them?

Seeing Our Adversaries With Clear Eyes

June 9, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas 19fortyfive.com

To be sure, our leaders must engage not just with democratic allies but with autocrats in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and elsewhere. Presidents are wise to seek meetings in which to enunciate our values, delineate our priorities, glean what we can from our adversaries, and seek cooperation when possible.

The Ukraine Peace Offensive

June 2, 2023 James S. Robbins AFPC Insights

In some respects, the diplomatic peace offensive is as important as the Ukrainian ground offensive, because conflict termination will ultimately come from the bargaining table and not the battlefield. This phase of the conflict is critical.

New Rules in Israel’s North

May 16, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Between mid-March and mid-April, Israel's northern frontier experienced its worst spasm of instability in over a decade-and-a-half. On March 13, an armed extremist connected to Hezbollah infiltrated the country and blew up a car at the Megiddo junction, some 50 miles south of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Three weeks later, over the Passover holiday, the Hamas terrorist group launched a salvo of 36 rockets from Lebanese territory against towns and civilian populations in the western Galilee, wounding several and damaging local infrastructure. Two days after that, rockets were launched at Israel from Syria as well.

Israel needs to refocus abroad

April 24, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

“Never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying himself,” Napoleon once said. That’s a lesson Jerusalem needs to learn quickly, and Washington needs to reinforce, as Israel’s regional challenges escalate while the Jewish state is splintering over an ill-timed debate on judicial reform.

Russia’s Independent Media Diaspora Needs Our Support

April 18, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

With the outbreak of the Ukraine war more than a year ago, Russia's already unfree media sphere has constricted precipitously. New regulations and constraints imposed by a Kremlin desperate to control the narrative about its "special military operation" have made independent journalism virtually impossible inside the country, and precipitated a mass exodus of journalists, producers, and opposition media figures to locations in Europe and beyond.

Ukraine remains at heart of freedom’s future

March 29, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

“The global struggle for democracy approached a possible turning point in 2022,” Freedom House writes in its latest annual report on political rights and civil liberties around the world. “There were signs … that the world’s long freedom recession may be bottoming out, which would set the stage for a future recovery.”