Articles

In Iran, an Electoral Flop

February 26, 2020 Ilan I. Berman National Review

What if you held a national election and no one turned out? That’s the situation currently confronting Iranian officials, who are grappling with the aftermath of a truly disastrous outcome in last week’s parliamentary elections.

How The Revolutionary Guards Could Reshape Iran

February 24, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

Iran’s clerical army could decide that an internal transition is the best answer, and move to remove (or at least subordinate) the country’s current clerical elite. Such a step, after all, would allow the IRGC to preserve its current, extensive grip on national power while simultaneously working to alleviate economic pressure from the U.S. and reintegrate into the international community.

The Risks Of Sino-Saudi Partnership

February 20, 2020 Ilan I. Berman Al-Hurra Digital

What does Riyadh really think about China? It was one of the questions on my mind last week, when I led a research delegation to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the invitation of the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Trump’s Plan Forces Palestinian Choices

January 31, 2020 Ilan I. Berman Al-Hurra Digital

It's your move, Mahmoud Abbas. That's the basic message behind the Trump administration's long-awaited "deal of the century," which was unveiled publicly on Tuesday at a joint press conference between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Washington needs to anticipate Iran’s next provocation

January 30, 2020 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

Signs are mounting that in Tehran, which faces rising pressures at home and abroad, the country’s powerful hardline conservatives are circling the wagons, raising the odds of still more Iranian global provocations. The question is whether Washington — which continues to tighten the economic screws on Tehran — is ready for what might come next.

How Demographics Could Spark Change in Iran

January 25, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

For years, Iran’s ruling ayatollahs have grappled with a profoundly vexing problem: how best to maintain the loyalty of the country’s growing (and increasingly unruly) population. The question isn’t strictly a political one. It is also made significantly more complicated by the age of the Islamic Republic’s population, which cuts against the regime in key ways.

The Real Start Of “Maximum Pressure” Against Iran

January 3, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

The targeting of Soleimani – which followed on the heels of U.S. military strikes on multiple facilities in Iraq operated by Kataib Hezbollah, a key Iranian regional proxy – has ushered in a qualitatively new phase in the Trump administration’s confrontation with Iran. Chances are, it will be one punctuated by heightened hostilities

The Quest For A New Iranian Constitution

January 2, 2020 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

The current quest for an Iranian constitution reflects a realization by opponents of the Iranian regime that, if they hope to galvanize support from the Iranian “street,” they need to paint a much clearer picture of the future they desire.

The Problems Plaguing NATO

December 11, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The Hill

Seventy years after the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty and the formation of the Atlantic Alliance, the West's most powerful and enduring military bloc is suffering from deep systemic dysfunctions.

Iran’s economy is a house of cards

November 18, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The Hill

Just how durable is the Iranian economy, really? As the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran marks its one-year anniversary, that’s the question many policymakers in Washington are asking.

Trump’s refugee crackdown threatens US security

November 7, 2019 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

On the heels of his controversial decision to pull out of Syria and abandon the Kurds, our close allies in the fight against the Islamic State, the President’s move to cap Iraqi refugees is sure to raise further doubts about why people in foreign lands should risk their lives to work with the United States.

The New Faces of Iranian Protest

October 29, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

Today’s anti-regime activism actually has more than two dozen public faces. And if they become better known globally, these personalities could help galvanize still greater resistance to the country’s clerical regime.

The future of combat is urban

October 9, 2019 Jacob McCarty Jane's Defence Weekly

The US armed forces are waking up to the fact that cities are likely to be the main environment for tomorrow’s battles and that they have some catching up to do with their rivals, as Jacob McCarty reports.

Russia’s National AI Center Is Taking Shape

September 27, 2019 Samuel Bendett DefenseOne

A famed Russian technical university is helping to lead the government’s push for public-private efforts to develop AI technologies and applications — including a joint project with China’s Huawei — and to stop top talent from flowing to the West.

First glimpses of Tokayev’s Kazakhstan: The listening state?

September 17, 2019 S. Frederick Starr Atlantic Council

- President Tokayev seeks to "maintain continuity" yet nonetheless calls for "systemic reforms." He appears to mean both.
- In the effort to engage society more deeply in governance, Kazakhstan will institute and seek to manage reforms from above.
- In continuing the principle of balance in its foreign policy, which Tokayev invented two decades ago, Kazakhstan will seek increased engagement and investment from the West.

Future Iran nuclear deal needs stronger verification

September 11, 2019 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

This week’s revelations that the International Atomic Energy Agency found traces of uranium at an undeclared nuclear site in Iran’s Tehran Province — revelations which the regime has refused to explain — shows that the Iranian nuclear issue is far more complicated than U.S. and Iranian jockeying of recent days suggests.

Why Iran Fears Its Women

August 13, 2019 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

In late July, Mousa Ghazanfarabadi, the conservative head of Tehran's Revolutionary Court, announced publicly that the Iranian regime had identified a new "hostile government" with whom interaction was henceforth banned, punishable by up to a decade in prison.

With autocrats on defensive, US has opportunity

August 4, 2019 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

Moscow detains nearly 1,400 protesters after a bloody crackdown and returns its most prominent opposition figure to jail after what he suspects was a state-ordered poisoning that put him in the hospital. Beijing hints that it will send its army to quell protests against Hong Kong's China-backed government.

Tehran’s Risky Maritime Maneuver

July 23, 2019 Ilan I. Berman Radio Farda

Iran's strategic position atop the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global waterway through which a fifth of world oil passes, is a key asset for Tehran – and a serious worry for regional oil suppliers and foreign oil consumers alike.