Big changes are afoot in the South Caucasus. Back in August, in a move that passed largely unnoticed in the American press, the Trump administration pulled off a major diplomatic coup when it brought together Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to ink a joint declaration formally ending decades of hostility between the two regional rivals. 

A regime stalwart who has long carried Putin’s water (and boosted his neo-imperial agenda), Lavrov has been conspicuously absent in recent days from a number of high-profile functions. The Foreign Minister, usually a fixture, failed to attend a meeting of Russia’s National Security Council on November 5th – purportedly “by agreement” (presumably with Putin). He was also cut out of Russia’s delegation to the upcoming G20 meeting in South Africa later this month, with a much more junior official, Deputy Chief of Staff Maxim Oreshkin, tapped to lead the Russian team instead. 

For decades, the Kremlin has sought to intimidate foreign powers by threatening to use nuclear weapons. In the current Ukraine war, nuclear threats have been a key way by which Russia’s government has sought to restrain Western aid to Kyiv. The efficacy of Moscow’s nuclear brinksmanship, however, seems to be waning.

These days in Europe, there is a near-unanimous consensus about the threat posed by Russia and the need to continue to support Ukraine against Moscow’s aggression. But Europe’s steadfastness could be undermined by a different factor—a sustained and growing dependence on Russian energy among a number of its members.

Sixty-eight years ago, the Soviet Union shocked the world by launching Sputnik 1 and igniting the space race. Today, new Sputnik moments loom on the horizon, and the stakes are far higher. The country that emerges as a preeminent space power will guarantee its own economic and national security, and shape the “rules of the road” that govern the international community for decades to come. Who will that be?

The plan relies on a future international force to dislodge the terror group, a scenario deemed highly unlikely. By failing to remove Hamas, the ceasefire merely sets the stage for the next inevitable war.