Publications

Obama’s Iran Sanctions Bait-and-Switch

April 4, 2016 Ilan I. Berman National Review Online

Last week, a fresh political scandal erupted on Capitol Hill over Iran. At issue was a new plan being considered by the Obama administration to provide Iran's ayatollahs with limited access to the U.S. financial system as a sweetener for their continued compliance with their government's 2015 nuclear deal with the nations of the P5+1.

Russia’s Cease-Fire Fiction

April 4, 2016 Stephen Blank U.S. News & World Report

Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 14 announcement of a partial withdrawal of forces from Syria predictably surprised the Obama administration, which is habitually surprised by the current occupant of the Kremlin. In doing so, it became part of a larger pattern. Recent Russian-American ties demonstrate all too clearly that President Barack Obama still fails to grasp what it is, exactly, that Russia wants - and why it is successfully achieving these objectives despite the country's growing domestic crises.

Harry and Arthur: Truman, Vandenberg, and the Partnership That Created the Free World

April 1, 2016 Lawrence J. Haas Potomac Books

This book shares the untold story of how Democratic President Harry Truman and Republican Senator Arthur Vandenberg worked together in the perilous late 1940s to produce a revolutionary new U.S. foreign policy that has served America well ever since – with the United States seizing global leadership to protect its friends, confront its enemies, and promote freedom.

Strategic Primer - Cybersecurity

March 31, 2016 Richard M. Harrison

The goal of the new Strategic Primer initiative is to provide a concise, comprehensive overview of specific defense technology issues presented in a clear, direct, and graphical manner that serves as an accessible reference to policymakers. Volume 2 of the series focuses on Cybersecurity.

Cyber Threats in the Space Domain

March 30, 2016 Jennifer McArdle

The ability to access and exploit space has long been woven into the fabric of American national power. It is a critical component of global political leadership, the economy, and military power. Unfortunately, those pillars are increasingly at risk. The spread of space technology to new international actors and the increasing sophistication of those capabilities have made it possible to threaten American space systems directly. The national security community is accustomed to analyzing these threats and vulnerabilities and is pursuing a reasonable mix of policies and programs to address them. (Whether those actions are sufficient is subject to debate). However, over the last decade space and cyberspace have grown increasingly integrated. This opens up new vulnerabilities in American space systems, and gives a greater number of actors the potential to exploit those vulnerabilities...

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 388

March 28, 2016

Pak eyes more U.S. F-16S;

Hackers targeting Indian defense establishment;

India signs 28 defense contracts;

Pak seeks stronger ties with Sri Lanka;

Border forces to be withdrawn from LOC?

Why Russia Is Claiming Victory In Syria

March 23, 2016 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

Call it Vladimir Putin's "mission accomplished" speech.

The Russian president recently caused an international furor when he abruptly announced that his government was commencing a military withdrawal from Syria. Russia had "radically changed the situation" on the ground through its involvement, and its strategic objectives had been "generally accomplished," Putin said in a televised meeting with top advisors in Moscow, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. As a result, Russia's commander-in-chief declared, he had made the decision "to start withdrawal of the main part of our military group from the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic starting from tomorrow."

Our Quickly Unraveling Nuclear Deal

March 21, 2016 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

Iranians are famously savvy negotiators, so recent revelations that, under the U.S.-led global nuclear deal, Iran has far more leeway than we had thought to hide its nuclear progress and test ballistic missiles shouldn't surprise us.

It should, however, alarm us.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 356

March 16, 2016

Corruption: Scourge of Central Asia;

A shrinking Russian footprint in Tajikistan;

Kazakhstan, speaking plainly Kyrgyzstan tightens control over Islamic education

Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 162

March 14, 2016

Iran's elections: Less than meets the eye;

The Iranian military goes on the sectarian offensive;

A soaring execution rates;

Nuclear oversight of Iran shrinks 

No Means To Muster

March 9, 2016 Ilan I. Berman The Washington Times

In the current political season, it's the policy dog that isn't barking.

Over the past several primary debates, candidates on both sides of the aisle have sparred at length over national security, offering contrasting - if still vague - strategies for dealing with Russia, the Islamic State and Iran, among other foreign policy challenges. But precious little attention has so far been paid to a more fundamental question: Does the U.S. military actually have the resources to adequately respond to today's global threats?

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 18

March 8, 2016

Libya, and the Western response;

The Islamist penetration of Europe;

Pushing back against Boko Haram;

A growing ISIS footprint in Pakistan;

The ISIS threat to the U.S.

New Near East Challenges

February 29, 2016 Issue 16

The Isis Convergence

The Return Of The Bear

The Nuclear Deal And Iranian Cyber

Saudi Arabia At The Crossroads

Sunni/Shi'ite Proxy War Heats Up

An Ominous Election In Iran

February 29, 2016 Ilan I. Berman U.S. News & World Report

On Friday, Iranians went to the polls to select new representatives for the country's legislature, known as the Majles, and its Assembly of Experts, the powerful clerical body that oversees the performance of Iran's supreme leader. The results reflect a stronger-than-expected showing from the country's so-called "reformist" camp, particularly the political circles surrounding Iranian president Hassan Rouhani.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 386

February 23, 2016

$3B Indo-Israeli defense deal close;

Pakistan joins Saudi military training;

45 terrorist organizations in Pakistan;

US approves sale of 8 f-16 fighters to Pakistan;

India's internationa fleet review shows new focus

Iran’s Eurasian Adventure

February 23, 2016 Ilan I. Berman Foreign Affairs

As expected, last summer's nuclear deal is already shaping up to be an economic boon for Iran. From stepped-up post-sanctions trade with countries in Europe and Asia to newfound access to some $100 billion in previously escrowed oil revenue, the agreement (formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) has put the country on the path toward a sustained national recovery.

Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 161

February 22, 2016

Iran's campaign against the Baha'i continues;

Bahrain in the crosshairs...again;

Iranian attitudes, post-JCPOA;

Tehran's foreign legion;

Iran makes new nuclear plans

Iran’s Hard-Line Elections

February 22, 2016 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

Henry Kissinger famously remarked some time ago that Iran must decide whether it wants to be "a nation or a cause." For decades, U.S. presidents of both parties have been trying to coax Tehran toward the former and away from the latter.

Most recently, the U.S.-led global nuclear agreement with Iran - with its scores of billions in sanctions relief that President Obama hoped Iran would invest to improve the living standards of its people - was designed to convince Tehran to abandon its revolutionary ways and become a nation in good standing.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 17

February 21, 2016

The Islamic State's growing strategic capabilities;

Has the Islamic State come to Pakistan?;

Targeting ISIS finances...with bombs;

Iraq's Sunnis start to push back  

Countering Putin begins with knowing what his regime is saying

February 17, 2016 Stephen Blank The Hill

Recent media accounts have argued that the U.S. government suffers from an absence of high-quality expertise on Russia. These accounts correctly note that funding for careers to ensure career opportunities for a continuing flow of people interested in Russia has dried up as well as the quantitative as well as qualitative lack of capable analysts. Undoubtedly we suffer from a shortage of funding and of professional interest in Russia, which is widely regarded as a busted flush of little account despite Ukraine and Syria. This shortage tallies with the president and his administration’s view that Russia is a declining regional power. Yet, as we have seen reality continues to belie such shortsighted thinking, particularly when it comes to the information battlefield and America’s struggle to contest Russian dominance in the weaponization of information used by the Kremlin against the United States and NATO.

World War III In Syria?

February 15, 2016 James S. Robbins U.S. News & World Report

Peace in our time in Syria? Not even close. Last Thursday, international negotiators meeting in Germany announced that they had reached what was described as "an agreement toward halting hostilities." Not a ceasefire, not an armistice, but a deal to make another deal to possibly stop the fighting. "I'm pleased to say that as a result today in Munich," Secretary of State John Kerry said at the time, "we believe we have made progress on both the humanitarian front and the cessation of hostilities front... to be able to change the daily lives of the Syrian people." Note to Kerry: Try not to say "Munich" when announcing a peace deal, especially one doomed to fail.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 16

February 14, 2016

Islamist mobilization in Tajikistan;

One step forward, two steps back for U.S. counterterrorism;

A tactical setback for terrorist media in southwest Asia;

An ISIS navy?;

Saudi Arabia steps in

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 385

February 11, 2016

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives hold trilateral mil exercises;

Bangladesh rejects Chinese deep sea port;

Looks to India, Japan;

Japan may build aircraft plan in India;

India receives new shipment of MI-17 helicopters