Publications

Iran: Isolated No Longer

April 26, 2015 Ilan I. Berman National Review Online

Less than a month after it was signed in Lausanne, Switzerland, the framework nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers is already beginning to pay dividends - for Iran, that is.

Even before the April 2 accord, the enforced isolation that brought Iran's ayatollahs to the nuclear negotiating table back in 2013 had begun to erode, progressively undermined by hungry investors eager to return to "business as usual" with the Islamic Republic. But since the framework deal was signed, the floodgates have opened in earnest.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 366

April 21, 2015

India, China hold annual defense dialogue;

Rafale deal sees progress;

Lakhvi released, Aqis targeted in drone strikes;

Pakistan, U.S. seal weapons deal;

Bangladesh executes Jamaat-E-Islami leader

Iran Is Already Winning

April 20, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

As global talks over Iran's nuclear program resume in Vienna this week, one can't help wonder whether, in a larger sense, the die of an Iranian regional, military and economic victory has already been cast. From Washington to Berlin, Moscow to Beijing, and many places in between, Iran's isolation is disappearing as governments and businesses prepare to exploit its return to global respectability.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 336

April 14, 2015

Erdogan visits Iran;

Amid Yemen crisis, Egypt vows to protect Arab gulf;

Iraqi Kurds to cooperate with Baghdad on combating ISIS;

New domestic security law for Turkey 

Understanding Cybersecurity - Part 2 | Information Assurance

April 14, 2015 Richard M. Harrison

Information Assurance is the art and science of securing computer systems and networks against efforts by third parties to disable, intrude, or otherwise impede operations. It is the focus of most “cybersecurity” professionals in the technical community. The principal goals are to maintain an information system’s Confidentiality (the secrecy of information as it is used and stored), Integrity, reliability of data and equipment, and Availability, that a computer system is ready and able to function as needed. Information Assurance includes writing secure software, deploying it safely, and managing it to minimize the risk of compromise.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 365

April 13, 2015

FGFA program sputters;

Five Indian shipyards to bid for submarine contract;

Chinese, Indian troops face off along LAC;

Pakistan to purchase eight Chinese subs;

Sirisena tours Pakistan

Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 155

April 12, 2015

Iran, P5+1 strike tentative nuclear deal...;

...but is there a meeting of the minds?;

Hedging on verification in Tehran;

Mixed reaction in the Middle East

Putin’s Next Offensive

April 9, 2015 Stephen Blank Washington Times

Both NATO and the United States have publicly acknowledged that Russia is violating the newest cease-fire over Ukraine, which was recently concluded in Minsk, Belarus. Despite the agreement, Moscow is still sending tanks, armored vehicles, rocket technology and artillery to separatist elements inside Ukraine, and has moved on to occupy the strategically located railroad terminal of Debaltseve. Moscow's continuing military buildup in the Donbass region, and the outbreak of renewed fighting, strongly suggests that Russia does not seek an off-ramp out of Ukraine but intends to conquer still more Ukrainian territory.

5 Reasons Iran Nuke Deal Fails

April 8, 2015 Ilan I. Berman USA Today

No sooner had the P5+1 powers and Iran announced on April 2 that they had agreed upon the framework of a nuclear deal than its supporters began to spin the results. To hear the boosters tell it, the preliminary agreement represents a victory for proponents of peace and a defeat for warmongers everywhere. That sort of simplistic rhetoric may play well on a political level, but there are real strategic reasons to be skeptical of the impending deal.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 364

April 7, 2015

FGFA program sputters;

Five Indian shipyards to bid for submarine contract;

Chinese, Indian troops face off along LAC;

Pakistan to purchase eight Chinese subs;

Sirisena tours Pakistan  

Obama’s Ill-Advised Gamble

April 6, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

Of the new framework accord with Iran over its nuclear program, President Barack Obama said he hopes "that we can conclude this diplomatic arrangement - and that it ushers a new era in U.S.-Iranian relations - and, just as importantly, over time, a new era in Iranian relations with its neighbors."

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 335

April 5, 2015

Turkey green lights Azeri pipeline;

Saudi airstrikes in Yemen ahead of ground op;

Assad says ISIS still expanding;

Syrian rebels capture key town;

Egypt lists brotherhood figures as terrorists  

 

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 363

April 2, 2015

38 countries to send military personnel to India for training;

Indian, Chinese officials discuss border dispute;

U.S. airstrike kills senior Pakistani Taliban commander;

Hazara seek Taliban protection;

Ghani nominates 16 ministers to round out cabinet  

 

Kremlin Fight Club

April 2, 2015 Ilan I. Berman Foreign Affairs

At first glance, Grozny seems like an odd place for a gathering of the world's best fighters. The capital of Russia's restive Chechen Republic, Grozny is in a better place today than it was in the 1990s and early 2000s, when it was ground zero for two brutal wars between Islamist insurgents and the Russian state. But the city, like the region it inhabits, still ranks high on the misery index. Despite a major rebuilding effort on the part of the government, Chechnya's unemployment and poverty rates are among the highest in the Russian Federation, and the region has emerged as a significant source of angry young men who have traveled to the Middle East to join the ranks of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.

Iran Is to Blame for the Palestinians’ Plight

March 30, 2015 U.S. News & World Report

If you go by President Barack Obama's rhetoric, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has single-handedly sunk the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The United States has been forced to "re-assess our options," the commander in chief has said, including supporting Israel at the United Nations, on the basis of Netanyahu's election-eve statement opposing a two-state solution.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 2

March 29, 2015

The Islamic state's social media offensive;

Boko Haram vs. Democracy;

Kazakhstan's foreign fighter problem...;

...and a threat of terror in Tajikistan;

Islamist factions unite in Syria  

An Ugly Double Standard For Israel

March 23, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

President Barack Obama's vow to reassess U.S.-Israeli relations after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign remarks about a Palestinian state showcases his badly skewed views of Israel, its conflict with the Palestinians, its Arab neighbors and the true sources of regional instability.

Netanyahu’s Win

March 20, 2015 Ilan I. Berman World Affairs Journal

The Israeli electorate has spoken. After a bitterly acrimonious political campaign, and an election on March 17th that saw the highest voter turnout (72.3 percent) in recent memory, Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu has received a reinvigorated mandate to govern.

Congress Must Derail Obama’s Iran Debacle

March 17, 2015 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

You wouldn't know it from the mainstream media, but President Obama has an Iran problem. His administration has wagered - and wagered big - on the idea of a nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic. But the effort is increasingly unpopular, and a hard sell among the American electorate.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 387

March 16, 2015

U.S., Japan, India to conduct joint naval exercises;

India eyeing $3B defense package with Israel;

Pakistan: India bigger threat than terrorism;

ISIS thwarted in Afghanistan;

Taliban rejects new peace talks  

When The Laws Of War Kill

March 16, 2015 James S. Robbins US News and World Report

The laws of war are intended to limit conflict and minimize casualties. But what happens when terrorists use these same laws to expand conflict and kill more people?

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 362

March 15, 2015

Sri Lanka suspends Chinese port project;

Indian, Pak Foreign Ministers meet;

Pakistan tests ballistic missile;

Bomb misses Bangladesh PM by minutes;

Stalling Rafale deal heightens prospects of PAK-FA  

Relax about Republicans’ letter to Iran

March 10, 2015 James S. Robbins USA Today

A firestorm erupted Tuesday over the letter by Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark. and 46 other Senators to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, laying out their view of the ongoing negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program. Critics of the letter started throwing around words like unprecedented, illegal, even treasonous.

Morocco’s Counterterrorism Moment

March 10, 2015 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

The summit on countering violent extremism convened by the Obama administration last month was a lavish affair, full of pomp and circumstance and awash in foreign dignitaries. But substantive strategies for combatting radical ideologies, particularly those of Islamist groups, were far less in evidence.

Nuclear Musings

March 9, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

From today's diary entry of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei:

Ah, the Americans. When it comes to our nuclear weapons program, they leave us with only good choices!

On the one hand, I can drag out the talks beyond this month's latest deadline because the desperate Americans certainly will agree to keep talking. That's how we went from the six-month interim deal in November 2013, through a deadline in July 2014, and then through another deadline in November 2014.

Missile Defense Briefing Report: No. 334

March 8, 2015

New sensor blimp unnerves citizens;

Turkey goes its own way on missile defense;

Nuclear talks with Iran skirt its missiles;

North Korea now launching at sea;

A new Iranian-Russo missile deal

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 361

March 8, 2015

Sri Lanka: No more Chinese subs in ports;

India and Israel coope on the new SAM system;

Afghans launch largest-ever solo offensive;

India to fast-track, upgrade new carrier;

Battle rages near China-Myanmar border