Publications

Iran Strategy Brief No. 7: Iran’s Various Voices

June 16, 2015 Ilan I. Berman

Is the Islamic Republic of Iran a country or a cause? For decades, the question is one that has bedeviled Western observers. Foreign politicians and diplomats long have struggled to reconcile the Iranian regime’s radical rhetoric and destructive international behavior with its pragmatic participation in numerous treaty arrangements, and its prominent role in various multilateral forums.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 370

June 15, 2015

Finally, a constitutional deal in Nepal;

ISIS and Taliban square off in Afghanistan;

India strikes militants across border in Myanmar;

China mining for rare earths in the Indian Ocean;

Carter in Delhi  

Another Day, Another Cave

June 15, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

If, as Marx taught, history repeats itself "first as tragedy, then as farce," then Washington's latest reported concession proves that U.S.-led nuclear negotiations with Iran have moved from the tragic to the farcical.

Don’t Rejoice Yet: Erdogan Could Still Win

June 14, 2015 Politico Europe

For 13 years, the escape routes from Turkey's political haunted-house have been shutting one by one. Suffocation seemed inevitable. The June 7 election, which resulted in the first hung parliament since 1999, cracked open a tiny window in the attic. Turkey's hope is now predicated upon an unlikely scenario: One in which every major political group exits from that window in an orderly fashion, even as the smoke is rising.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 339

June 10, 2015

Egypt's leader tries to rule as a one-man show after a year in office;

Georgia's leader warns of Russian expansion;

Libyan gains may offer ISIS a base for new attacks;

Turkey's new parliament features four key parties;

Trove seized in Syria opens window on ISIS  

 

Keep Trade About Trade

June 7, 2015 U.S. News & World Report

After a heated battle last month, the U.S. Senate voted to pass the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015, commonly known as trade promotion authority, which gives the president the ability to negotiate trade deals and submit them to Congress as a whole for an up or down vote, which, these days, is an essential step towards passage. The fight now moves to the House of Representatives, where passage is critical as both chambers must agree on the final text of the pending trade promotion authority bill.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 6

June 4, 2015

Hard times for the PIJ;

Western strategy against the Islamic State: More of the same;

Turkey changes tack;

A Balkan anti-Islamism effort;

ISIS takes aim at the Taliban...;

...While the rift with Al-Nusra deepens

China’s Linked Struggles For Power

June 4, 2015 Joshua Eisenman The Wall Street Journal

The Chinese military is expanding disputed islands under its control in the South China Sea, alarming its neighbors. How worried should the world be that supreme leader Xi Jinping is making China into an expansionary power? The history of the People's Republic offers some useful clues.

The Difficulty of Being Bueno

June 2, 2015 Christine Balling Foreign Affairs

Juan Carlos Pinzon Bueno, Colombia's minister of defense, is constantly on the move, traveling all over the country to meet with members of the armed forces and citizens as part of his duties. At any given moment, he may be on a military base awarding medals to the wounded in action, in a helicopter surveying a ministry-funded resettlement village for a displaced indigenous tribe, or in a remote rural village once ravaged by rebel violence, inaugurating five miles of road rebuilt by the Army Corps of Engineers.

Get Ready To Scrap The Iran Nuclear Talks

June 1, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

"Interviews with scientists is completely out of the question and so is inspection of military sites," Abbas Araqchi, Iran's senior negotiator on its nuclear program, announced on state television on Saturday, just as Secretary of State John Kerry was conferring with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in a final push to meet the June 30 deadline for an Iran nuclear agreement.

Missile defense: evolving technology, and evolving threats

May 31, 2015 Issue 14

The Importance Of Missile Defense

Threat And Response: Missile Defense As Existential Requirement

Israel's Iron Dome: Lessons For The U.S.

Evolution And Adaptation: Improving Missile Defense

The Future Of Missile Defense: Technology And New Concepts Of Operation

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 369

May 25, 2015

India eyeing larger presence in Andamans;

Sri Lanka to launch war crimes investigation;

Maldives President visits Pakistan;

Beijing wants cooperation from Delhi on Indian ocean mining;

Taliban launches attacks on Badakhshan  

A Cautionary Tale

May 25, 2015 James S. Robbins U.S. News & World Report

The U.S. government's vast apparatus for data collection touches every aspect of human activity. But how can a system that seemingly has the capability to know absolutely everything still get major events so wrong?

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 5

May 21, 2015

Britain's Jihadis return home;

Pushback in Tunisia;

How the Islamic state is sneaking into Europe;

The Islamic State's resilient terror economy;

In the Sahara, cracks in Islamist identification;

Australia's hard line  

The Economics Of Deterring Russia

May 21, 2015 Ilan I. Berman The National Interest

When it comes to the prospects of war in Europe, perhaps we simply aren't asking the right questions. For months now, Russia watchers within the Beltway and in European capitals have been preoccupied with anticipating the next moves of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the year-old conflict taking place in Ukraine.

Beware China’s Grand Strategy

May 20, 2015 Foreign Affairs

Last month 57 nations applied to become founding members of China's newest creation: the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Ostensibly designed to help finance projects that sate Asia's expanding appetite for infrastructure, the AIIB has left Washington struggling over how to respond. Some applaud China for assuming greater international responsibility and wielding soft power to aid Asia's growth. Some oppose the move as undermining the U.S.-led economic order and using aid as a tool to advance China's strategic agenda.

No Good Outcomes For Israel

May 18, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

"We who defeated the Israelis will also defeat the terrorists," a Hezbollah fighter in Syria told the New York Times the other day, referring to Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in the early 1980s. "And we will take Jerusalem."

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 338

May 17, 2015

Cracks in Assad's inner circle;

Sunni tribesman to join Anbar offensive;

Houthis agree to temporary ceasefire;

Libya targets Turkish cargo vessel;

Another Arab-led intervention?  

 

Don’t Blame The Victim

May 14, 2015 Stephen Blank U.S. News & World Report

By every account Russia and its "insurgent army" are planning a new offensive in Ukraine. Shelling aroundShyrokyne has increased considerably. Russia, once again violating the Minsk II agreement that it first broke even before the ink was dry, has brought up reinforcements, including air defenses - a telltale sign of an impending offensive. It has also reorganized and trained separatist fighters in Ukraine to make them more proficient and professional under Russian command and control.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 368

May 11, 2015

Arihant Sea tirals move forward;

Kerry visits Sri Lanka;

Qatar hosts more Taliban peace talks;

Ghani pushes for access to Wagah border;

India, China vie for influence in Nepal after quake  

A Dangerous Middle East Policy

May 6, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

The growing concerns of Arab nations over an emerging Iran nuclear deal and their reported desire for U.S. weapons to protect themselves are the unfortunate outgrowths of President Barack Obama's foreign policy realism.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 4

April 30, 2015

In Georgia, a grassroots response to ISIS;

Unlikely allies in the Sinai;

Tackling education in Egypt;

Hamas gains in the West Bank;

The Islamic state's next casualty: The Taliban 

What We Don’t Know About Iran Could Hurt Us

April 29, 2015 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

To hear the Obama administration tell it, the framework nuclear accord agreed to between the P5+1 powers and Iran last month in Lausanne, Switzerland is a good deal. The White House has pledged that the final agreement to be concluded in coming weeks, backed up by a robust monitoring and verification regime, will block Iran's pathways to a bomb for at least a decade - and perhaps considerably longer.

America’s Good News Energy Story

April 28, 2015 James S. Robbins U.S. News & World Report

The United States is beginning to realize the strategic benefits of the fracking revolution. And they just keep growing.

This week at the IHS CERAWeek energy summit in Texas, Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz said that the United States anticipated "becoming big players" in the global liquefied natural gas market and that "there's a good chance that we will be LNG exporters on the scale of Qatar," which he noted was the world's largest LNG exporter.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 367

April 27, 2015

China invests big in Pakistan;

Pakistan arrests 47 Indian fisherman;

Russia to build $2 billion pipeline in Pakistan;

Militants feel pressure in Pakistan;

$45 billion in Afghanistan aid unaccounted for;

Ghani visits Iran