Publications

No Good Outcomes For Israel

May 18, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

"We who defeated the Israelis will also defeat the terrorists," a Hezbollah fighter in Syria told the New York Times the other day, referring to Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in the early 1980s. "And we will take Jerusalem."

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 338

May 17, 2015

Cracks in Assad's inner circle;

Sunni tribesman to join Anbar offensive;

Houthis agree to temporary ceasefire;

Libya targets Turkish cargo vessel;

Another Arab-led intervention?  

 

Don’t Blame The Victim

May 14, 2015 Stephen Blank U.S. News & World Report

By every account Russia and its "insurgent army" are planning a new offensive in Ukraine. Shelling aroundShyrokyne has increased considerably. Russia, once again violating the Minsk II agreement that it first broke even before the ink was dry, has brought up reinforcements, including air defenses - a telltale sign of an impending offensive. It has also reorganized and trained separatist fighters in Ukraine to make them more proficient and professional under Russian command and control.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 368

May 11, 2015

Arihant Sea tirals move forward;

Kerry visits Sri Lanka;

Qatar hosts more Taliban peace talks;

Ghani pushes for access to Wagah border;

India, China vie for influence in Nepal after quake  

A Dangerous Middle East Policy

May 6, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

The growing concerns of Arab nations over an emerging Iran nuclear deal and their reported desire for U.S. weapons to protect themselves are the unfortunate outgrowths of President Barack Obama's foreign policy realism.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 4

April 30, 2015

In Georgia, a grassroots response to ISIS;

Unlikely allies in the Sinai;

Tackling education in Egypt;

Hamas gains in the West Bank;

The Islamic state's next casualty: The Taliban 

What We Don’t Know About Iran Could Hurt Us

April 29, 2015 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

To hear the Obama administration tell it, the framework nuclear accord agreed to between the P5+1 powers and Iran last month in Lausanne, Switzerland is a good deal. The White House has pledged that the final agreement to be concluded in coming weeks, backed up by a robust monitoring and verification regime, will block Iran's pathways to a bomb for at least a decade - and perhaps considerably longer.

America’s Good News Energy Story

April 28, 2015 James S. Robbins U.S. News & World Report

The United States is beginning to realize the strategic benefits of the fracking revolution. And they just keep growing.

This week at the IHS CERAWeek energy summit in Texas, Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz said that the United States anticipated "becoming big players" in the global liquefied natural gas market and that "there's a good chance that we will be LNG exporters on the scale of Qatar," which he noted was the world's largest LNG exporter.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 367

April 27, 2015

China invests big in Pakistan;

Pakistan arrests 47 Indian fisherman;

Russia to build $2 billion pipeline in Pakistan;

Militants feel pressure in Pakistan;

$45 billion in Afghanistan aid unaccounted for;

Ghani visits Iran

Iran: Isolated No Longer

April 26, 2015 Ilan I. Berman National Review Online

Less than a month after it was signed in Lausanne, Switzerland, the framework nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers is already beginning to pay dividends - for Iran, that is.

Even before the April 2 accord, the enforced isolation that brought Iran's ayatollahs to the nuclear negotiating table back in 2013 had begun to erode, progressively undermined by hungry investors eager to return to "business as usual" with the Islamic Republic. But since the framework deal was signed, the floodgates have opened in earnest.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 366

April 21, 2015

India, China hold annual defense dialogue;

Rafale deal sees progress;

Lakhvi released, Aqis targeted in drone strikes;

Pakistan, U.S. seal weapons deal;

Bangladesh executes Jamaat-E-Islami leader

Iran Is Already Winning

April 20, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

As global talks over Iran's nuclear program resume in Vienna this week, one can't help wonder whether, in a larger sense, the die of an Iranian regional, military and economic victory has already been cast. From Washington to Berlin, Moscow to Beijing, and many places in between, Iran's isolation is disappearing as governments and businesses prepare to exploit its return to global respectability.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 336

April 14, 2015

Erdogan visits Iran;

Amid Yemen crisis, Egypt vows to protect Arab gulf;

Iraqi Kurds to cooperate with Baghdad on combating ISIS;

New domestic security law for Turkey 

Understanding Cybersecurity - Part 2 | Information Assurance

April 14, 2015 Richard M. Harrison

Information Assurance is the art and science of securing computer systems and networks against efforts by third parties to disable, intrude, or otherwise impede operations. It is the focus of most “cybersecurity” professionals in the technical community. The principal goals are to maintain an information system’s Confidentiality (the secrecy of information as it is used and stored), Integrity, reliability of data and equipment, and Availability, that a computer system is ready and able to function as needed. Information Assurance includes writing secure software, deploying it safely, and managing it to minimize the risk of compromise.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 365

April 13, 2015

FGFA program sputters;

Five Indian shipyards to bid for submarine contract;

Chinese, Indian troops face off along LAC;

Pakistan to purchase eight Chinese subs;

Sirisena tours Pakistan

Iran Democracy Monitor: No. 155

April 12, 2015

Iran, P5+1 strike tentative nuclear deal...;

...but is there a meeting of the minds?;

Hedging on verification in Tehran;

Mixed reaction in the Middle East

Putin’s Next Offensive

April 9, 2015 Stephen Blank Washington Times

Both NATO and the United States have publicly acknowledged that Russia is violating the newest cease-fire over Ukraine, which was recently concluded in Minsk, Belarus. Despite the agreement, Moscow is still sending tanks, armored vehicles, rocket technology and artillery to separatist elements inside Ukraine, and has moved on to occupy the strategically located railroad terminal of Debaltseve. Moscow's continuing military buildup in the Donbass region, and the outbreak of renewed fighting, strongly suggests that Russia does not seek an off-ramp out of Ukraine but intends to conquer still more Ukrainian territory.

5 Reasons Iran Nuke Deal Fails

April 8, 2015 Ilan I. Berman USA Today

No sooner had the P5+1 powers and Iran announced on April 2 that they had agreed upon the framework of a nuclear deal than its supporters began to spin the results. To hear the boosters tell it, the preliminary agreement represents a victory for proponents of peace and a defeat for warmongers everywhere. That sort of simplistic rhetoric may play well on a political level, but there are real strategic reasons to be skeptical of the impending deal.

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 364

April 7, 2015

FGFA program sputters;

Five Indian shipyards to bid for submarine contract;

Chinese, Indian troops face off along LAC;

Pakistan to purchase eight Chinese subs;

Sirisena tours Pakistan  

Obama’s Ill-Advised Gamble

April 6, 2015 Lawrence J. Haas U.S. News & World Report

Of the new framework accord with Iran over its nuclear program, President Barack Obama said he hopes "that we can conclude this diplomatic arrangement - and that it ushers a new era in U.S.-Iranian relations - and, just as importantly, over time, a new era in Iranian relations with its neighbors."

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 335

April 5, 2015

Turkey green lights Azeri pipeline;

Saudi airstrikes in Yemen ahead of ground op;

Assad says ISIS still expanding;

Syrian rebels capture key town;

Egypt lists brotherhood figures as terrorists  

 

South Asia Security Monitor: No. 363

April 2, 2015

38 countries to send military personnel to India for training;

Indian, Chinese officials discuss border dispute;

U.S. airstrike kills senior Pakistani Taliban commander;

Hazara seek Taliban protection;

Ghani nominates 16 ministers to round out cabinet  

 

Kremlin Fight Club

April 2, 2015 Ilan I. Berman Foreign Affairs

At first glance, Grozny seems like an odd place for a gathering of the world's best fighters. The capital of Russia's restive Chechen Republic, Grozny is in a better place today than it was in the 1990s and early 2000s, when it was ground zero for two brutal wars between Islamist insurgents and the Russian state. But the city, like the region it inhabits, still ranks high on the misery index. Despite a major rebuilding effort on the part of the government, Chechnya's unemployment and poverty rates are among the highest in the Russian Federation, and the region has emerged as a significant source of angry young men who have traveled to the Middle East to join the ranks of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.

Iran Is to Blame for the Palestinians’ Plight

March 30, 2015 U.S. News & World Report

If you go by President Barack Obama's rhetoric, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has single-handedly sunk the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The United States has been forced to "re-assess our options," the commander in chief has said, including supporting Israel at the United Nations, on the basis of Netanyahu's election-eve statement opposing a two-state solution.

Global Islamism Monitor: No. 2

March 29, 2015

The Islamic state's social media offensive;

Boko Haram vs. Democracy;

Kazakhstan's foreign fighter problem...;

...and a threat of terror in Tajikistan;

Islamist factions unite in Syria