Publications

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 206

July 30, 2009

Iraq's hydrological challenge;

Russia seeks another base in Kyrgyzstan;

Israel prepares for possible strike on Iran;

Signs of life in the West Bank;

HuT crackdown in Turkey

How To Move Forward With Iran

July 20, 2009 Ilan I. Berman Forbes.com

How should the U.S. respond to Iran's post-election turmoil? A month and a half after a fraudulent election sparked popular outrage among ordinary Iranians and an unprecedented outpouring of opposition onto Iran's streets, that question continues to bedevil policymakers in Washington. The depths of the administration's dilemma are readily apparent. There is a way out of this impasse, however; one capable of satisfying the administration's supporters and its critics.

Obama In Moscow - Perhaps A B-Minus?

July 15, 2009 E. Wayne Merry OpenDemocracy

President Obama has completed his first in-depth engagement with the Russian leadership during his Moscow visit. From an outsider's perspective, he gets a B-plus for substance but no better than a C on form. On balance, then, a B-minus. The new American administration's relations with Russia are a process, adjusting the policies of the previous Bush administration to its own goals. The main areas of change are three: treaty-based strategic nuclear arms control; Afghanistan; and a structure for other bilateralcooperation. This process began with the meeting of the two presidents in London. The Moscow summit represents progress on their first meeting in each area, but each is a shell waiting for real achievement. In each case, the serious work is still ahead.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 205

July 12, 2009

A War of Words between Baku and Tehran;

Al Qaeda gets its day in (Saudi) Court;

Turkey on a tightrope over Uighur crackdown;

Authoritarianism gains steam in Eurasia;

Another ideological body blow for the bin Laden network

Winning The Long War: Retaking The Offensive Against Radical Islam

June 30, 2009 Ilan I. Berman Rowman and Littlefield Publishers

Winning the Long War is a trenchant examination of the past seven years of the Global War on Terror, the future battlegrounds that will confront the United States in the struggle against radical Islam in the years ahead, and how America can reclaim the initiative in what has become the defining struggle of the twenty-first century.

Obama Needs To Stay Course On Afghanistan

June 28, 2009 Ilan I. Berman McClatchy-Tribune News Service

What to do about Afghanistan? Ever since taking office in January, President Obama has received no shortage of advice about the proper way forward on the first front of America's struggle against radical Islam. Some have argued that Afghanistan is politically the same as Iraq — a war of choice in which America has little at stake, and even less idea of how to achieve victory — and counseled withdrawal. Others have acknowledged Afghanistan's strategic importance, while stressing that nothing more is required than simply relying on Coalition and NATO support to continue fighting an insurgency that is now in its seventh year. Still others have suggested that lightning can in effect strike twice, and the very same "surge" strategy adopted by the Bush administration in 2007 to deal with Iraq will reap dividends in Afghanistan as well.

The China-India Border Brawl

June 23, 2009 Wall Street Journal Asia

The peaceful, side-by-side rise of China and India has been taken for granted in many quarters. But tensions between the two giants are mounting, and Washington would do well to take note. On June 8, New Delhi announced it would deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons near its border with China. Beijing responded furiously to the Indian announcement, hardening its claim to some 90,000 square kilometers of Indian territory that China disputes.

Iran’s Revolutionary Moment?

June 21, 2009 Ilan I. Berman The American Spectator

These are hopeful and perilous times in Tehran. Ever since the blatant fraud of Iran's June 12th presidential election, popular opposition to that country's ruling clerical order has been on the rise, leading more and more observers to wonder whether Iran could really be on the cusp of another revolution. Maybe so. But any analysis of the current situation in Iran must begin with the acknowledgement that revolutions, properly understood, are notoriously hard to predict.

Eurasia Security Watch: No. 203

June 18, 2009

More aid for Palestinian security forces;

Another round in Turkey's ideological tug-of-war;

At SCO, China steals the show;

The cyber front in the Gaza war

Interesting Times In Tehran

June 15, 2009 Ilan I. Berman The American Spectator

What a difference a few days can make. Last week, ahead of Iran's presidential elections, I wrote here that the outcome would matter little in the grand scheme of Iranian politics. I may have spoken too soon. Since Friday, that country has descended into political turmoil of a type not seen since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The cause is a rigged election that has catalyzed widespread outrage among ordinary Iranians and threatened the legitimacy of the ruling regime in Tehran.

Much Ado About Nothing

June 10, 2009 Ilan I. Berman The American Spectator

Tomorrow, Iranians will go to the polls to elect a new president in what has become the most anticipated political event in that country since the Islamic Revolution three decades ago. The results, however, are already a foregone conclusion. Whoever ends up becoming president will have little real power -- and even less influence over Iran's geostrategic direction.

Iran’s Nuclear Threat: The Day After

June 4, 2009 Ilan I. Berman

Iran is on the brink of attaining a nuclear weapons capability. The U.S. should immediately put in place the foundations of a strategy to dissuade Tehran from attaining a nuclear weapon through diplomacy, disarm it through military force, or establish a robust framework of augmented deterrence to mitigate the threat posed by a nuclear Iran and prevent a future disaster from unfolding.

Obama and the Two Muslim Worlds

June 2, 2009 The American Spectator

When President Obama delivers his long-awaited speech in Egypt on Thursday, he will be fulfilling his inaugural pledge to "seek a new way forward" with the Muslim world. But finding areas of mutual interest may prove far more difficult than the president imagines. That is because, in recent years, the Middle East has seen the crystallization of regional politics around two distinct ideologies. Call it the new bipolarity.

China Reform Monitor: No. 762

May 25, 2009

May 5:  

 

In the second half of this year, the People’

s Liberation Army (PLA) will use two months for a continuous series of live-forces exercises designated "

Kuayue 2009"

with the participation of four PLA military regions and the Air Force. The four Military Regions participating in the exercises will mobilize 50,000 troops and 60,000 vehicles, weapons and equipment. The Zhongguo Xinwen She reports that the exercises are intended “

to promote military training, boost units' ability to conduct combat operations, implement the army’

s new Outline for Training, and test the overall effectiveness of bases.”

 

 

 

May 6:  

 

Xi Jinping, China’

Vice President, greeted to more than 1,000 students on the campus of Beijing’

s Capital Normal University;

even joyfully hugging one and reportedly receiving a warm applause from others. Members of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, including President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, are also inspecting universities across the country to assess the “

ideological conditions of university students.”

According to the Zhongguo Tongxun She the delegations’

will review student’

s living conditions and their “

mentality and attitude”

and were “

helping resolve the realistic difficulties currently faced by the students in their life.”

The Central Organization Department, Ministry of Education, and other organs have jointly issued the "

Opinions on Establishing a Long-Lasting Mechanism for Selection and Appointment of University Graduates as Village Officials."

The document states the salaries and future career of university graduate-turned village officials, stressing that "

measures should be taken to ensure that [they] are willing to go down to and stay at the grassroots level."

 

 

May 7:  

 

China views Vietnam’

s $1.8 billion purchase of 6 kilo class submarines from Russia as a direct provocation. “

Tension in the South Sea has escalated since the beginning of this year. Some Southeast Asian countries are trying to occupy some of China's island reefs in the South Sea either through legislation or strengthening their armament. If Vietnam takes military measures to confront China on the South Sea issue, this will be unfavorable to Vietnam,”

the Zhongguo Tongxun She (ZTS) reports. Vietnam’

s is also building 10 Molniya class missile boats with Russian technology, buying 2 Gepard 3.9-class frigates, and has spent $3.8 billion on 17 Russian Su-27 and 4 Su-30 fighter planes with “

the capability of air-to-sea combat covering most of Nansha [Spratly] waters.”

ZTS was critical of Washington’

s role: “

After the "

9/11"

attack, the United States began to try to win over Southeast Asian countries' militaries under the pretext of assisting global antiterrorism war. If China and Vietnam clash in the South Sea, this is something a certain third party would be glad to see. Hopefully, China and Vietnam will not fall into the trap set by a third party.”

Moscow also came under fire: “

Russia is trying to gain strategic benefit by stepping up arms sales to Southeast Asian countries. Its arms sales to Vietnam possibly have special significance for Russia, because returning to Cam Ranh Bay has been a goal long cherished by Russia.”

 

 

May 8:  

 

Beijing dissident Li Jinping has staged a demonstration on Tiananmen Square holding a banner and shouting "

Long live Chairman Hu, Right the Wrong for Mr Zhao Ziyang!"

Zhao, the now deceased former chairman of the Communist Party of China, was forced to step down after he opposed hardliners’

decision to crackdown in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989. Only seconds Li’

s arrival, two to three men rushed towards Li, took down his banner, and took him to a waiting police vehicle, as posted on youtube. Li himself was once part of Beijing public security personnel, but was forced out in 2001 because of his political views, Hong Kong’

s Apple Daily reports.  

 

May 10:  

 

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has said he is prepared to talk politics with China if reelected to a second term in 2012. In an interview with Singapore’

s Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao published Saturday, Ma also said he would not rule out political talks with Beijing if a need for emergency negotiations occurred. In the interview Ma said he aimed to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore next November. Although Taiwan is a member, China has always opposed the attendance of the self-governing island’

s president. He emphasized that Taiwan wanted to become an ASEAN partner in the same fashion as China, Japan and South Korea. Ma denied there was a timetable to sign an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China, but repeated his stance that an agreement was necessary or Taiwan might become marginalized as ASEAN cuttrade tariffs with China, Japan and South Korea beginning next year.

In Mideast, A Pivotal Proliferation Moment

May 24, 2009 Ilan I. Berman Defense News

If it needed another reminder of the global danger posed by Iran's nuclear program, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama has just gotten one. In early May, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the nuclear watchdog of the United Nations, revealed in a closely held report that its inspectors had found traces of highly enriched uranium in Egypt last year. The disturbing revelation is the latest sign that the regime of President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo may in fact be looking for a nuclear deterrent, despite official assurances that its program is intended strictly for "peaceful purposes." Egypt’s apparent interest in "the bomb" is hardly an isolated incident, however. It is part of a growing pattern of proliferation and nuclear development in the greater Middle East — a trend that has been intensified by Iran’s increasingly mature, and menacing, atomic effort.