Eurasia Security Watch: No. 240
Morocco protesters reject monarchy's reforms;
Fatah, Hamas sign unity deal, but questions linger;
Iran and Saudi battle through Bahrain;
Tajikistan's Islamic party on the rise
Morocco protesters reject monarchy's reforms;
Fatah, Hamas sign unity deal, but questions linger;
Iran and Saudi battle through Bahrain;
Tajikistan's Islamic party on the rise
Philippines and China spar over Spratleys, again;
Chinese students to study in Taiwan for first time
The United States and Pakistan have sustained a decades-old partnership on the strength of a Cold War alliance and a set of narrow but shared vital interests. However, the relationship has undergone profound changes as a result of the Afghan War, which on one hand has forced the two countries into an awkward but necessary embrace, and on the other exposed deep and potentially irreconcilable differences.
President Obama's announcement last night that al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was killed by U.S. special operations forces outside the Pakistani capital of Islamabad is welcome news indeed. The death of the man responsible for the worst attack on the U.S. in history represents a major counterterrorism victory, and long overdue justice for the victims of 9/11. But it's hardly the "end of the War on Terror," as some observers have been quick to suggest.
Indian general sounds off on Sino-Pak ties;
ISI chief gets extension;
Panetta rebuffs the ISI;
Ethnic militias on the rise in northern Afghanistan
The Moslehi Affair: A Metric of Ahmadinejad's Power;
Rafsanjani on the Outs;
Tehran Targets Dogs, Pharmaceuticals;
Regime Jitters Over the Green Movement;
 
Shenzhen crackdown ahead of Summer Universiade;
Premier Wen makes another appeal for reform
The effects of this game of brinksmanship being played by China, and to a lesser degree India, have so far been constrained by prudent and cautious political leaders in both capitals. However, the longer the aura of confrontation perpetuates, the more it generates a momentum of its own. Hawkish comments by officials and newspaper editors are easily dismissed; shifts in military doctrines and public opinion are much harder to reverse.
Call it belated full disclosure. Ever since the ouster of president Hosni Mubarak earlier this year, the Muslim Brotherhood has reemerged as a major force in Egyptian politics. For most of that time, however, it has played coy about its political aspirations and ideological agenda. These days, though, the Islamist movement has become a great deal more frank about its plans for Egypt.
"At this period, we would like to lead the society to achieve its Islamic identity in preparation for the Islamic rule," Saad Husseini, a member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Bureau, proclaimed at a recent rally in Cairo. These ideas have been echoed by other Brotherhood officials, who have outlined sweeping social changes once “Islam enters the lives, ethics, and dealings of the people.”
NATO steps up assistance to Libyan opposition;
Qatar supplies Libyan rebels with "
defensive weapons"
';
Camp Ashraf under fire;
Syria wracked by protests
It should come as little surprise, but U.S. headlines are again dominated by dour news out of Pakistan. The U.S.-Pakistan relationship is today under severe strain, rattled by heated disputes over CIA drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas; clandestine U.S. intelligence operations inside Pakistan; and Islamabad's persistent refusal to crack down on the Taliban and their radical allies. Intelligence cooperation is at an all-time low.
China and India beef up border forces;
India largest importer over five years;
Taliban forms unit to hunt CIA spies;
Than Shwe steps down, sort of;
India and Pakistan to resume talks
White paper endorses cross-strait military talks;
China-Pak cooperation concerns India  
Western banks abandon Russia;
Microsoft plants a flag at Skolkovo
Beijing harassing underground catholic churches;
Infrastructure plans in Xinjiang spark environmental concerns
These are trying times in Morocco. Over the past three months, the small North African kingdom has seen regime change roil two of its neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt, and a third—Libya—descend into civil war. The Moroccan street itself has seen its fair share of ferment; large-scale rallies calling for new social reforms and sweeping governmental changes have taken place throughout the country in recent weeks. In response, the country’s monarch, Mohammed VI, outlined a series of far-reaching constitutional reforms in early March, even going so far as to propose a diminution of royal power in favor of the country’s government and parliament. But, at least for now, the protesters do not appear to be entirely mollified.
Turkey to host Taliban talks?;
Libya crisis puts Qatar in the spotlight;
Washington cutting off arms to Lebanon?;
Bishkek interested in U.S., Russian CT centers
CRM Special Edition: China's Expanding Crackdown on Dissent
Malabar war games on, minus Japan;
India phasing out MiG fleet;
TTP facing financial crunch;
Dissension in the Afghan Taliban's ranks
In Libya, China ready to cash in;
ASEAN seeks “
common stand”
on naval disputes with China
Russian missiles for Syria (and Hezbollah?);
Iron Dome comes online;
S-300 reinforces Russian claims to the Kurils;
U.S. missile shield sets sail;
Israeli defenses against the DPRK
A clampdown on migrant workers;
A call for reform from within the Kremlin
China to build Columbian railroad to link Atlantic and Pacific;
Beijing helping Zimbabwe government spy on its people
Is President Obama finally learning to love the idea of freedom in Iran? If the Administration’s Persian New Year message is any indication, it is certainly starting to seem that way.
That video greeting, issued on March 20th to mark Nowruz, took a serious stand in support of Iran’s opposition forces—and against its repressive regime. The Iranian government’s heavy-handed response to the grassroots protests that have taken place throughout the country since the fraudulent reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the summer of 2009, Mr. Obama declared, demonstrate
that it cares far more about preserving its own power than respecting the rights of the Iranian people.
Crackdown in response to calls for "
Jasmine Revolution"
China and Russia jockey over Heixaizi Island
Pak turns to plutonium;
India seeks peace in Assam;
Pakistan comes clean about drones;
Pak security forces infiltrated by extremists
Senior security officials meeting with Indian separatists?;
Beijing increasingly concerned about lead poisoning
With regimes collapsing throughout the Middle East, many Washington experts wonder if two U.S.-aligned monarchies, Bahrain and Jordan, might be the next possible candidates for the type of regime change seen of late in Tunisia and Egypt. In recent weeks, thousands have demonstrated in Bahrain in favor of overthrowing the monarchy after security forces killed several protesters calling for constitutional reforms and investigations into government corruption and human rights abuses. In Jordan, meanwhile, demonstrations against rising food prices and rampant unemployment quickly transformed into pro-democracy rallies, rocking the Hashemite Kingdom to its core.
The stakes for the U.S. are enormous. The overthrow of either regime would threaten American interests and further destabilize the already-volatile region. Bahrain's strategic position in the Persian Gulf, through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil exports pass, as well as its role as host to the U.S. Fifth Fleet (which helps protect that oil), makes its continued alliance with the U.S. crucial to American energy security. As for Jordan, its long border with Iraq, which will likely host American troops for many more years, and its peace treaty with Israel, makes the country an important strategic partner for America.
Chinese navy group rescues South Korean ship from pirates;
New body to scrutinize FDI on national security security grounds
Boosting Yemen's special forces;
A second nuke site in Syria?;
Bahrain opposition figure returns from exile;
Russian cruise missiles to Syria still on track
China blesses DPRK succession;
Beijing uses media to discourage smoking epidemic
CPC instructions designed to remind PLA who’
s in charge;
Taiwan hopes for representation in new Egyptian regime
Beijing investing more in Russian Far East than Moscow;
Facebook establishes office in Hong Kong, still faces trouble in China
In the wake of grass-roots protests that swept Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak from power, more than a few commentators have cautioned that the current political turmoil could end up bearing more than a passing resemblance to the events that led up to the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Even that bleak outcome, however, might end up being wishful thinking. Ominously, the present situation in Egypt closely resembles the events leading up to Algeria‘s bloody 11-year civil war, which stretched from 1991 to 2002.
Flawed defense policy hampers India mil modernization;
Pak attacks down 20% but other data mixed;
U.S. drops
sanctions on Indian defense firms;
Pakistan's nuclear bonanza
China to benefit from Burma’
s boom in hydroelectric power;
Former Tiananmen leaders refused entry into Hong Kong
The Green Movement, Revisited?;
Khamenei in Search of Religious Legitimacy;
The Fleeting Effect of Stuxnet
Beijing investing more in Russian Far East than Moscow;
Facebook establishes office in HK, still faces trouble in China
Manas clears another hurdle?;
Turkey and Azerbaijan solidify alliance;
Tribes use regional unrest to pressure Jordan's king;
A Saudi political party emerges
It took a day longer than expected, but the Egyptian opposition has gotten its way. Less than twenty-four hours after issuing a defiant address to the nation in which he pledged to serve out the remainder of his term, Hosni Mubarak has formally resigned the Egyptian presidency.
Mubarak's departure was by and large predictable. Beset by widening domestic disapproval and bereft of his traditional support from the West, it was clear that Egypt's long-serving strongman would eventually be forced to make an exit. What comes next, however, is far less clear. Indeed, since the start of the unrest some three weeks ago, the depths of the political and economic challenges confronting those seeking a new future for Egypt have become apparent.
What does Iran think about the Middle East’s democracy wave? On the surface, officials in Tehran have taken an optimistic view of the anti-regime sentiment now sweeping the region, depicting it as an outgrowth of Ayatollah Khomeini’s successful revolution 32 years ago—and the start of an ‘Islamic awakening’ in which the Islamic Republic will inevitably play a leading role.
Privately, however, Iran’s ayatollahs must be quaking in their boots. Why? Because the current anti-regime sentiment being expressed in Tunis, Cairo, and beyond could end up breathing new life into their country’s own beleaguered pro-democracy movement.
Prospects for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority have not been rising. The central issues of Jerusalem, Israeli settlements and Palestinian refugees seem no closer to resolution, and turmoil in Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and elsewhere in the region further complicates efforts to reach long-term solutions to vexing challenges.
Now, Hezbollah's de facto takeover of Lebanon's government puts a final nail in the coffin of Israeli-Palestinian peace, giving the terrorist group and its backers in Tehran and Damascus still more leverage to doom any serious peace initiative.
India prods China on Pakistan, visas;
Beijing steals footage from "
Top Gun"
to promote J-10 fighter
As the wave of grass-roots unrest sweeping across the Middle East envelops Egypt, all eyes are on the next move of embattled President Hosni Mubarak and his increasingly rickety regime. The telltale signs, however, are already becoming apparent; even as he has offered political concessions to his opposition, Egypt's aging autocrat is steering his country toward military control.
Since it began late last month, the turmoil taking place in Egypt has spawned no shortage of expert commentary here in the United States. Some observers have argued that, despite the current ferment in Cairo, strongman Hosni Mubarak will stubbornly cling to power and ride out the storm. Others, however, have come to question the utility of America's historic backing for the Mubarak regime—and counseled unequivocal support for its overthrow. Still others have taken the long view, seeing the Egyptian tumult as a belated vindication of the "Bush doctrine" of democracy promotion.
Precious few, however, have bothered to ask exactly what it is that ordinary Egyptians are after. They should, because—beyond the general dissatisfaction with the Mubarak regime now visible on the Egyptian "street"—the values and beliefs of the protestors are likely to have a profound influence on the nature of the political order that will eventually emerge there.
On that score, it turns out, there's ample reason for pessimism.
When the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad was engulfed by the “Arab Spring” last March, many waxed optimistic that regime change in Syria wouldn’t be long in coming. But ten months into the ensuing civil war, Assad’s regime shows no signs of fading away quietly. To the contrary, it has doubled down on repression, waging an extended campaign of official brutality against its own people in its bid to remain in power. As of mid-January, the death toll from Syria’s uprising had topped 6,000, with no let-up in sight.
Major boost to Afghan security forces?;
Bhutto takes a stand against rising tide of extremism;
Iran's support for Taliban outlined;
India mulls cut in Kashmir troops
PLA presence in North Korea;
Taiwan military drills expose deficiencies
China tests first trans-atmospheric vehicle;
Beijing tests propaganda in U.S. media during Hu visit