Putin’s Plan: To Outlast Kyiv and the West
Nearly two years into its war against Ukraine, the Kremlin gives no signs it is prepared to give up on its campaign of conquest.
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Publications
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2611
Toward a Russian "panopticon";
Prioritizing guns over butter;
Russia, Iran deepen military ties;
How Republicans plan to help Kyiv win
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2610
An attempted pogrom in Dagestan;
...Revives regional worries;
A helping hand from Pyongyang;
An alternative to the Kerch Bridge
China Policy Monitor No. 1576
Unrest on the China-Myanmar border;
Meta removes China's online influence networks;
Ukraine destroys key railway linking China and Russia;
U.S. lawmakers fear a "flood" of Chinese EVs from Mexico;
China eases its pressure campaign on Lithuania
Defense Technology Monitor No. 94
Investing in new nuclear fuel;
Now is the time for quantum clocks;
Circumventing semiconductor sanctions;
Is augmented reality back on track?;
Drifting toward real-world tractor beams
Israel Is Finally Starting To See China And Russia Clearly
Wars have a way of clarifying a great many things, and of reshuffling existing partnerships in profound ways. This is what's happening with Israel's views of China and Russia, which are now undergoing a redefinition because of its current conflict with terrorist organization Hamas.
Why is the Biden Administration Scared of Iran?
With Israel and Hamas still vowing to destroy one another, and with full combat resuming after a tenuous truce, Washington says it doesn’t want to do anything to provoke Iran into a wider regional conflict.
The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus
The geopolitical environment surrounding Central Asia and the Caucasus has changed dramatically over the past decade, with important implications for American and European interests. Regional and great powers have accorded the region ever greater attention, and the regional states themselves have developed a greater agency in responding to the geopolitical challenges confronting them. European, and in particular American, perceptions of the region have not kept up with these changes and are in need of updating.
Ukraine Reform Monitor No. 6
Zelenskyy takes aim at cyber defense officials;
Combatting corruption is key to Ukraine's EU quest;
Kyiv eyes military medical reform;
Securing the "day after";
Protecting the military from graft
China Policy Monitor No. 1575
Taiwan ramps up arrests of China's spies;
U.S. provides arms, training to Taiwan's military;
$1 trillion in developing country debt to China is coming due;
China expands its naval base in Cambodia;
Nepal's new Chinese-built airport investigated for corruption
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2609
Is Wagner wading into the Mideast's newest conflict;
Qatar brokers the return...of Ukrainian children;
The geopolitical cost of the Ukraine war;
...And the human ones;
Goodbye to the CFE;
Moscow seeks a Libyan foothold
The Competition over the “Global South”
Public Opinion and Great Power Competition in the Global South
China's Eroding Global Image
China's Struggle for Discourse Power in the Middle East
Latin America In The Geopolitical Crosshairs
How to Contest Beijing’s Gains in the “Global South”
Information Warfare Watch No. 26
TikTok shapes the debate over Israel and Hamas;
...And spreads Al-Qaeda's creed...;
...Garnering new scrutiny in the U.S.;
Silencing TikTok in Nepal
China Policy Monitor No. 1574
Beijing continues its crackdown on business;
China stocks up on staple crops;
Nepal bans TikTok for spreading malicious content;
Thailand rejects China's police patrol plan;
Applied materials faces probe for selling chips to China
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 11
Accusations roil India-Canada ties;
New Maldivian President vows a cold shoulder for India;
China's diplomacy a sign of growing interest in Afghanistan...;
...As Kabul comes aboard the Belt and Road;
Alarm over Pakistan's plan to expel illegal Afghan migrants;
The diplomatic costs of Chinese loans
China Policy Monitor No. 1573
Chinese firms diversifying out of China: HSBC CEO;
Britain and Taiwan expand ties, China not happy;
Estonia approves Taipei office, PRC envoy threatens to leave;
China's largest chipmaker sees 80% drop in third-quarter profits;
The Philippines accuses China of "unprovoked coercion
Defense Technology Monitor No. 93
Is "rods from god" a fraud?;
Upgrading quantum information storage;
Making directed energy more efficient;
Hypersonics get plasma protection;
Chinese gets better at sub-scanning
Defense Technology Monitor No. 92
Are we heading for AI Armageddon;
China's green rocket innovation;
Israel advances in autonomous warfare;
Wanted: anti-tank UAVs;
A new way to defeat loitering munitions
Security in East Africa Matters for Great Power Competition
Kenya has a longstanding reputation as a stable democracy, but recent violent protests have drawn concern from other African states, and from the international community.
Russia Policy Monitor 2608
Surkov's new big idea...;
...and the Kremlin response;
Russian hackers target the U.S. federal government;
Back to the Red Army;
Hamas courts the Kremlin
Biden’s Ukraine Policy is Less than Meets the Eye
Behind the lofty rhetoric lies a sobering question: Does the White House truly want Ukraine to win? The answer is less clear-cut than it appears.
China Policy Monitor No. 1572
Xi: Chinese women must start "new trend of family";
Rich Chinese move themselves, assets out of the PRC;
More Chinese are braving Panama's jungle to reach the U.S.;
Popular social media users must reveal their identities;
PLA General: China will "crush foreign interference," "severely punish" Taiwan secessionists
Planning for Protraction: A Historically Informed Approach to Great-power War and Sino-US Competition
As Sino-US relations have deteriorated, concerns have grown in Washington over its ability to defeat China in a major conflict.
A Case for a Full Israeli Victory over Hamas in Gaza
Israel is facing all-too-predictable global pressure to scale back its military operation in Gaza to spare innocent lives and prevent a regional conflict that could draw in Iran, the United States, and other nations.
Ukraine Reform Monitor No. 5
How America is thinking about Ukrainian corruption;
Seeking Europe's approval;
Desperately seeking new judges
China Policy Monitor No. 1571
Spy chiefs warn of Chinese espionage on an "epic scale";
China, Pakistan sign $7 billion rail deal;
Beijing elevates ties with Taliban at BRF;
Sri Lanka reaches $4.2 billion debt deal with China;
China officially renames "Tibet" as "Xizang"
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2607
A cold shoulder for Moscow at Turtle Bay;
Ukraine and Israel: a common fight;
More pressure on Team Navalny;
A new source of military conscripts;
How European firms are circumventing sanctions on Russia
The Genius of Their Age: Ibn Sina, Biruni, and the Lost Enlightenment
ted the works of Ibn Sina and Biruni, S. Frederick Starr focuses also on their lives and the times in which they lived. By contextualizing their work and by making the age palpable to the reader, S. Frederick Starr gives the achievements of Ibn Sina and Biruni a holistic and unforgettably human dimension.
The Gaza Ground War: What to Expect
Israel shouldn't wait to invade Gaza City.
China Policy Monitor No. 1570
China's campaign of harassment;
Former Bank of China boss arrested;
China's first hydrogen-powered ship sets sail;
China deports hundreds of North Koreans;
Set free, Cheng Lei welcomed back in Australia
Information Warfare Watch No. 25
The downside of monetizing X;
How AI is turbocharging disinformation;
China stokes the disinformation fires;
Indonesia protects its economy... by banning TikTok
Israel’s New War is Part of Iran’s Strategic Plan
Ever since the Hamas terrorist group carried out its savage campaign against Israel nearly two weeks ago, countless observers have nervously watched the start of what, as of this writing, stands as a real risk of spiraling into a regional war.
Challenging Moscow’s Message
In CHALLENGING MOSCOW'S MESSAGE, Ilan Berman examines the strategic logic underpinning Russia's extensive use of propaganda and disinformation, and evaluates the effectiveness of the institutions erected by a range of Western governments over the past decade in response.
It’s Time to Drop ‘Eurasia’
With its roots in Russian imperialism, the concept of Eurasianism isn't as benign as many believe.
A New Spring for Caspian Transit and Trade
Major recent shifts, starting with the Taliban victory in Afghanistan and Russia’s war in Ukraine have led to a resurgence of the Trans-Caspian transportation corridor. This corridor, envisioned in the 1990s, has been slow to come to fruition, but has now suddenly found much-needed support. The obstacles to a rapid expansion of the corridor’s capacity are nevertheless considerable, given the underinvestment in its capacity over many years.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2606
More drift on arms control;
What makes Putin tick?
A new Black Sea naval base;
Repurposing Russia's funds
What Was Hamas Thinking?
Unlike its previous encounters with Israel, Hamas may have unleashed an unlimited war that would culminate in the group’s utter destruction.
America’s Iran policy needs a reset
A massive foreign policy scandal recently shook official Washington when two news outlets, Semafor and Iran International, revealed the sordid details of a long-running—and extensive—Iranian influence operation.
China Policy Monitor No. 1569
Liechtenstein thwarts China's efforts to compete with Starlink;
Indonesia launches China-backed high-speed railway;
China and Brazil start trading national currencies;
Belgium suspects Alibaba of espionage;
DOJ announces indictments against Chinese fentanyl suppliers
On Ukraine, Biden needs to step up and make the case before it’s too late
At this inflection point, with Congress having excluded aid to Ukraine from the funding bill keeping the government running, the time seems right for President Biden to make a high-profile speech that outlines America’s stakes in Ukraine and addresses the “America First” arguments against them.
AFPC Iran Strategy Brief no. 14: How Israel Thinks About Iran’s Future
For Israel, the Islamic Republic of Iran represents both a cardinal security challenge and an existential danger. The country’s current clerical regime is estimated to be connected to some “80 percent” of the contemporary security problems confronting the Jewish state.[1] These include not only Iran’s increasingly mature nuclear program, but also its extensive sponsorship of extremist proxies throughout the Mideast, as well as the radical expansionist ideology that continues to animate the regime in Tehran.
China Policy Monitor No. 1568
Berlin blocks Chinese firm's takeover of Starlink rival;
China installs "floating barrier" to Scarborough Shoal;
China spy agencies head-hunting well-placed British nationals;
Retired British pilots face prosecution for training Chinese pilots;
U.S. accuses China of global media manipulation
Russia Policy Monitor 2605
The view from Moscow;
Wagner back under control - and back in Ukraine?;
Russia plans for a long war;
Moscow strengthens its ties to Tehran;
Beefing up the ranks...again
Crimea in Putin’s War: What You Need to Know
Any political effort to resolve Russia’s war against Ukraine must reckon with the special circumstances of Crimea.
The Imperative for United States Engagement in a Global Space Debris Cleanup Program
The United States should proactively engage with other nations and initiate a comprehensive program to clean up the space debris problem.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2604
Speculation surrounds Chechnya's strongman;
A deepening gold trade with Abu Dhabi;
The high cost of avoiding military service;
More signs of long-term military planning;
A fire sale in Crimea
The West has a massive China spy problem
A bevy of headlines in just the last few weeks concerning Chinese spying should force the West to bolster its China-focused counterintelligence efforts.
Ukraine Reform Monitor No. 4
The buck stops with Zelenskyy;
A divisive determination;
Germany takes stock;
A notable cabinet reshuffle
China Policy Monitor No. 1567
China's Defense Minister disappears;
China uses AI to sow disinformation about Hawaii fires;
UK Parliament researcher arrested amid China spy claims;
Canada launches inquiry into foreign interference;
China, Russia to build border grain terminal
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 35
Tokyo Fights to Keep the Black Sea Deal Alive;
Manila Pushes to Fast-Track Defense Sits for Washington;
With an Eye on Beijing, Canberra Calibrates Foreign Aid;
Palau Empowers America to Police Its Waters