Publications

After Iran, the Houthis Should Be Enemy No. 1

July 15, 2025 Eran Ortal The National Interest

The campaign carried out by Israel last month against Iran’s nuclear program was, by all indications, a spectacular feat of military prowess and strategic planning. But the role played by the United States cannot be overstated. America’s involvement dramatically augmented the damage done to key Iranian facilities, like Fordow—damage that it would have been difficult and potentially costly for Israel to inflict on its own.

A Test For Trump: After Congo, Can The US Broker Peace in Sudan?

July 14, 2025 Alexander Brown National Security Journal

Although overshadowed by the war in Iran, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and a seemingly perpetual struggle between Russia and Ukraine, last month saw an end to at least one global hotspot. On June 27th, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) signed a peace deal designed and brokered by Washington. The objective? Ending the violence that has surged in Central Africa since Rwandan-backed rebels took two major cities in the DRC earlier this year.

The Next Steps For Iran After Its War With Israel

July 12, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Forbes

What a difference a year can make.

Last summer, Iran appeared to be well and truly on the march. Its chief Palestinian proxy, Hamas, had succeeded in bogging Israel down in a costly ground war in Gaza – and turning global public opinion against the Jewish state in the process. The United States, under the Biden administration, didn't appear to have much of an answer to Iran's persistent pursuit of nuclear status, or to the growing regional threat posed by its other proxies, like Yemen's Houthi rebels. And vulnerable Gulf states, acutely aware of this dynamic, were increasingly seeking some sort of accommodation with Tehran. As a result, the Iranian leadership's strategic ambitions had begun to expand dramatically.

China Policy Monitor No. 1639

July 9, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

China Sends Scores of Planes Into Taiwan Strait...;
...While Japan's Nacy Navigates It;
Deployments To The South China Sea;
Hong Kong's Last Pro-Democracy Party Disbands;
Hong Kong's Crackdown Extends To Small Businesses

Why The Kremlin Isn’t Interested In A Ceasefire In Ukraine

July 9, 2025 Ilan I. Berman The Hill

When President Trump returned to the Oval Office earlier this year, he confidently proclaimed that he could broker an immediate end to the Russia-Ukraine war. But the White House has gotten a better sense of the potential for meaningful compromise in the months since, and revised its expectations down — way down.

China Policy Monitor No. 1638

July 8, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

Two PRC Nationals Charged With Spying on U.S. Military Facilities;
SCO An "Anchor of Stability" -- Beijing;
PRC Hackers Access Russian Systems, Steal Defense Secrets;
Chinese Firms Expand Into Brazil...;
...As Flood of Cheap Chinese EVS Triggers Backlash

In Israel, A Public Diplomacy Pivot

July 7, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

Israel has begun a little-noticed foreign policy transformation. Against the backdrop of its ongoing war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Jerusalem has launched a new initiative in strategic communications. 

China Policy Monitor No. 1637

July 2, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

China Issues New Centralized Virtual Internet ID;
China-Africe Trade, Deficits Soar;
Niger's Junta Expels PRC Oil Executives;
China Sells Fighter Jets And Weapons To Pakistan And Azerbaijan;
Congress Investigates Billionaire's CPC Links

Africa Political Monitor No. 53

July 1, 2025 Alexander Brown

Trump imposes travel ban on African states;
Nigeria eyes border fencing to combat militants;
China deepens continental ties amid record trade;
Niger eyes French-operated uranium mine;
Nigeria, Brazil ink $1 billion deal to modernize agriculture;
Deadly clashes erupt in Kenya on anniversary of tax protests

Africa Political Monitor No. 52

June 17, 2025 Alexander Brown

Another Step Forward For Morocco In The Western Sahara;
Islamist Attacks Threaten Mozambique’s Energy Plans;
Amid U.S. Retraction, China Mirrors American Strategy;
Ethiopia, Iran Expand Security Ties;
Wagner WIthdraws From Mali;
U.S. Mulls Somaliland Recognition For Base Access

Israel-Iran War: 3 Things To Watch As The Conflict Unfolds

June 17, 2025 Ilan I. Berman National Security Journal

Over the past several days, all eyes have been on the Middle East. Last week, Israel initiated "Operation Rising Lion," its unilateral military campaign to roll back Iran's nuclear program. The effort marks the end of a quarter-century during which Israeli policymakers desperately urged Western governments to take the threat of the Iranian atomic effort more seriously – and to take concrete steps to mitigate it.

China Policy Monitor No. 1636

June 10, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

China Is Recruiting Russians -- FSB; 
PRC Hackers Exploit Google Calendar;
Taiwan-Based Group Hacks China's Sensitive Infrastructure;
Internet Censorship in Henan Is Even Tighter;
China Launces New Railway To Iran To Bypass U.S. Sanctions

China Policy Monitor No. 1635

June 9, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

Rogue Devices Found in Chinese Solar Power Inverters;
U.S. To Revoke Visas of Students With CCP Connections;
PRC Institutions Lure Chinese Researchers From U.S. Universities;
China Issues New Policies To Channel Capital Into Tech Innovation;
Pakistan Uses PRC Hypersonic Missiles To Hit India's Air Defenses;

The Nine Gates of Power: China’s Passageways to the World Ocean

June 6, 2025 Kyle Kinnie American Foreign Policy Council

In December 2010, the Asahi Shimbun published a remarkable roadmap laying out the future trajectory of Chinese maritime expansion. In its analysis, the Shimbun outlined a geographically contingent thesis of Chinese geopolitical strategy—one on which the scholar Tetsuo Kotani elaborated further in a 2019 academic paper. Both publications argue that Chinese maritime access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans is effectively constrained through a series of islands and straits in the First Island Chain. These potential chokepoints constitute the “Nine Gates” through which Chinese maritime commerce and sea power must flow. 

From France, A Fresh Warning About Islamism

June 3, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Not all that long ago, warnings about a creeping Islamist infiltration in Europe were widely ridiculed as conspiracy theories or, worse, "Islamophobia." In previous years, when politicians like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands and Britain's Michael Gove, or authors like France's Michel Houellebecq raised alarms about the growing prevalence of political Islam on the Continent, they were routinely dismissed as cranks, alarmists, or simply as racists.

These days, though, such concerns are getting harder to refute. Just ask the French.

How Student Visa Crackdowns Undercut US Soft Power

June 2, 2025 Lawrence J. Haas The National Interest

With the State Department’s new vows to halt visa interviews for all foreign students until it beefs up its social media screening and to “aggressively revoke” the visas of Chinese students, the United States is heading down a precarious path. By doing so, it risks ceding its longstanding global advantages in terms of “soft power.”

Africa Political Monitor No. 51

May 30, 2025 Lilly HarveyAlexander Brown

France and The Western Sahara;
Ghana Closes DC Embassy Amid Visa Fraud Scheme;
Trump To Host African Leaders, Pushes Commercial Diplomacy;
Uganda and Germany Are On The Outs;
Mali’s Junta Dissolves All Political Parties;
U.S. and DRC Near Minerals-For-Security Deal;
RSF in Retreat;
Trump Confronts Ramaphosa Over Claims of White Genocide…;
…And Deports Migrants to South Sudan in Defiance Of Court Order

China Policy Monitor No. 1634

May 19, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

PLA To "Expand Practical Cooperation" With Russian Military;
China and Russia Sign Lunar Nuclear Reactor Deal;
China and Brazil Ink Deals, Vow To Defend Free Trade;
Colombia Joins The BRI;
China Expands Visa-Free Travel To Five Latin American Nations

Africa Political Monitor No. 50

May 12, 2025 Mia Shaw

Sudan Paramilitary Forms Rival Government;
China, Kenya Upgrade Ties Amid Global Challenges;
Trump Administration Shutters Africa Infrastructure Agency;
Gabon’s Military Leader Secures Controversial Presidential Victory;
Congo, Rwanda Edge Toward Peace Deal