Publications

China Policy Monitor No. 1607

September 11, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

China should take its land back from Russia – Taipei;
Former aide to New York governors was a Chinese agent;
South Korean official sold secrets to China;
To build a "strong military," China merges its top shipbuilders;
China expands its polar presence

The US sends wrong signals on Israel and democracy

September 10, 2024 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

President Biden recently declared that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not doing enough to reach a deal with Hamas to free the hostages the terrorist organization has been holding since last Oct. 7. This pronouncement was both ill-targeted and ill-timed, proving once again that Washington often doesn’t know when and when not to meddle in the affairs of other nations.

Rising Stakes in Tbilisi As Elections Approach

September 7, 2024 Laura Linderman Civil Georgia

As Georgia approaches parliamentary elections in October 2024, the South Caucasus state stands at a pivotal juncture. The growing authoritarian tendencies of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party threaten to derail the nation’s democratic progress, and its aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration. In this critical moment, the United States needs to act decisively by leveraging congressional measures to support Georgia’s democratic institutions and counter authoritarian influences there.

The Fight For Informational Freedom Is Moving To Space

September 4, 2024 Ilan I. BermanPeter Garretson Newsweek

The more nations there are connected to China's satellites, the smaller the global audience share left for Starlink or other Western conglomerates will be. Conversely, if Starlink succeeds in its current bid to make gains in places like Africa and Latin America, it will create an inherently pluralistic, open global media environment—one in which it will be much more difficult for the PRC to propagandize, isolate, and influence. Only one of those pathways benefits American security. It's up to policymakers in Washington to empower it.

Russians are waking up to Putin’s Ukraine folly

August 29, 2024 Ilan I. Berman The Hill

What all this might mean for Russia is still too early to tell. Policymakers in Moscow have initiated an array of measures in response to the Ukrainian incursion, ranging from declaring a state of emergency in Kursk as well as the neighboring Belgorod region, surging troops into the area, and creating new administrative units to manage the crisis). Still, as NATO officials have noted, Russia’s official response has been “slow and scattered” — at least so far. Whether it stays that way is still an open question.

China Policy Monitor No. 1606

August 26, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

PRC hackers infect Russian government agencies;
China admits its ship destroyed key Baltic gas pipeline;
China’s AI-driven bot network aims to "deepens polarization";
U.S. adds 42 PRC firms to its trade restriction list;
Man punished for browsing overseas websites four years ago

Africa Political Monitor No. 35

August 26, 2024 Lilly Harvey

Sudan peace talks commence despite absent parties;
Mali, Niger sever ties with Ukraine after Wagner group deaths;
Somalia-Ethiopia talks show progress;
Landmark trial finds LRA commander guilty of crimes against humanity;
Franco-Algerian tensions rise over Western Sahara dispute

Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Has Revealed Russia’s Military Weakness

August 26, 2024 Elliott Petroff The National Interest

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has taken its fight with the Kremlin onto Russian soil. Kyiv’s offensive consisted of a daring raid into Russia’s Kursk region designed to bring the fight to Russian forces and draw the Kremlin’s combat troops away from its own territory.  Aside from a few headlines, though, Ukraine’s bold strategic gamble has gone largely unnoticed. That’s a shame because Kyiv’s initiative—and Moscow’s response to it—has made clear that persistent Western fears of Russian brinkmanship are overblown. 

China Policy Monitor No. 1605

August 21, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

American firms help China skirt U.S. chip bans;
Chinese criminals launder fentanyl cash for Mexican cartels;
China's industrial parks turn to cash to lure foreign firms;
China launches satellites to rival SpaceX's Starlink;
China-funded canal to connect Phnom Penh to the gulf of Thailand

China Policy Monitor No. 1604

August 19, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

State pension funds dump PRC investments;
TikTok illegally collects children's data – U.S. Dept of Justice;
China issues new fentanyl regulations;
Less Chinese are getting married;
With debts mounting, localities chase back taxes

A Political Inflection Point in Georgia

August 12, 2024 Laura Linderman AFPC Insights

The Republic of Georgia faces a critical juncture ahead of parliamentary elections in October 2024 as escalating political tensions, driven by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party's increasingly authoritarian tendencies, threaten the country’s democratic future and its pro-Western trajectory. This situation demands a nuanced understanding of Georgia's complex political landscape and a strategic response from Western partners.

Russia Has Already Lost in Ukraine

August 7, 2024 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Whatever the cause, this sense of momentum has led the Kremlin to rebuff recent Ukrainian peace overtures, and to stake out a maximalist position as a prerequisite for any negotiations with Kyiv. But Moscow's triumphalism masks a more sobering reality—by almost every empirical measure, Russia's war of choice has proven ruinous for the Kremlin.

China Policy Monitor No. 1603

August 6, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

A national internet I.D. system;
Loyalty training for Chinese pastors;
State-owned enterprises invest $414bn in new equipment;
Germany the latest to accuse China of cyberattacks;
State banks sign $50b in deals with Saudi wealth fund

China Policy Monitor No. 1602

July 31, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

Chinese and Russian bombers off Alaskan coast;
High-schools, universities further restrict foreign travel;
Manila shutters Chinese-run online gambling outfits;
Hong Kong helps Russia avoid sanctions;
China brokers Palestinian reconciliation deal

4 reasons everyone should oppose a Hamas-Fatah government

July 30, 2024 Lawrence J. Haas The Hill

The new agreement between the terrorist group Hamas and Fatah, the political party of the Palestinian Authority, to form a unity government would — if implemented — threaten Israel, hurt the Palestinian people and create new obstacles to Israeli-Palestinian peace. No one who seeks peace should support it.

India’s Maritime Imperative

July 26, 2024 Shivani Sharma Newsweek

…supporting an enhancement of India's naval capabilities marks the logical next step. It aligns with America's interest in countering an increasingly assertive China, and it helps to deepen the already-robust bilateral ties between Washington and New Delhi.

How To Strike Back Against The Houthis

July 24, 2024 Ilan I. Berman National Security Journal

Up to now, Washington and its international partners have been loath to retaliate forcefully to Houthi aggression, fearful of precipitating a wider Mideast war. But the lack of a serious Western response has only emboldened the Houthis further, to the point where the group is now threatening to target America's regional presence directly.

China Policy Monitor No. 1601

July 23, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

U.S. Coast Guard shadows PLA Navy near Aleutian Islands;
Cheap robotaxis spark anxiety among cabbies;
China's population is 100M less than official data claims;
Cooking oil scandal prompts residents to buy oil presses;
China and Philippines reach deal to stop SCS clashes

China Policy Monitor No. 1600

July 18, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

China and Belarus conduct military exercises on NATO's doorstep;
China the "decisive enabler" of Russia's war on Ukraine – NATO;
Germany bans Chinese telecom giants from 5G;
China builds a military base in Tajikistan;
PRC-state hackers behind online theft – Australia

China Policy Monitor No. 1599

July 16, 2024 Joshua Eisenman

United Front targets Taiwan's religious temples;
Taiwanese navy officer indicted for giving intel to China;
China cuts bankers' pay;
U.S. puts tariffs on PRC steel and aluminum routed via Mexico;
Japan to subsidize antibiotics to reduce reliance on China

Afghanistan Is Still There

July 12, 2024 S. Frederick Starr CACI Feature Article

Since the U.S.'s abrupt departure from Afghanistan, the Taliban government has opened exten- sive contacts with China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Gulf States and some have elevated their ties to the ambassadorial level. No region has more at stake in Afghanistan's evolution than Central Asia and none follow developments there more closely. The U.S. should expand its C5+1 ties with Central Asia to include the sharing of information and discussion of policy choices re- garding Afghanistan. Europe and other friendly powers should do likewise.

Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 37

July 11, 2024 Eamon Passey

Vietnamese President resigns amid anti-corruption campaign;
In break from pacifist principles, Japan approves plan to sell jets;
Malaysia rises as crucial link in chip supply chain...;
...While maintaining cooperation with Beijing;
U.S., Japan, Philippines plan joint South China Sea patrols

The Problems Still Plaguing NATO

July 10, 2024 Ilan I. Berman AFPC Insights

This week’s NATO summit in Washington is, by any measure, a grand affair, full of the pomp and ceremony befitting the bloc’s 75th anniversary. It also offers up a useful opportunity to reflect on the state of the most successful military alliance in history.