Russia Policy Monitor No. 2701
Rising gold prices grease Russia's war machine;
Europe's new plan for defense readiness;
How Moscow tried to subvert Moldova...;
...And is targeting Germany with hybrid tactics;
A Russian military upgrade
Want these sent to your inbox?
Subscribe
Publications
Rethinking Central Asia
Opportunities and Challenges in A New Central Asia
Mongolia’s Pivot to Central Asia and the Caucasus
An American Strategy for Greater Central Asia
Implementing A New Regional Strategy
Needed: A Russia Containment Component
Why the U.S. is losing the battle for hearts and minds
As rivals flood the world with propaganda, Washington is dismantling its best tools to respond.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2700
Europe: A problematic dependence;
Trouble (for Moscow) in the Arctic;
Enemies, enemies everywhere
How Europe Is Still Fueling Russia’s War Machine
These days in Europe, there is a near-unanimous consensus about the threat posed by Russia and the need to continue to support Ukraine against Moscow’s aggression. But Europe’s steadfastness could be undermined by a different factor—a sustained and growing dependence on Russian energy among a number of its members.
Africa Political Monitor No. 59
Madagascar’s military seizes power after mass protests;
Congo trades export ban for cobalt quotas;
Russian forces fill the void as jihadists surge in Sahel;
Cameroon’s unrest grows
China Policy Monitor No. 1650
China purges top military officials;
China cracks down, arrests dozens of Christians;
Licensing deal for TikTok algorithm raises serious concerns;
Dutch government seizes PRC chipmaker Nexperia;
Despite China's threat's, UK delays China's mega-embassy again
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 247
Iran's new bargain with China: oil for arms;
New preparations for war...;
...And plans to militarize the Caspian;
Executions reach new high...;
...As legal penalties expand
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2699
Growing Russian military desertion;
A pivot away from the Mediterranean;
A mounting fuel crisis;
Freed Ukrainians count Russian torture
China Policy Monitor No. 1649
China continues to stockpile oil;
Beijing imposes more export controls on rare earths;
U.S. sanctions China refinery for Iran oil purchases;
China stops buying American soybeans;
BYD opens massive EV plant in Brazil
Global Islamism Monitor No. 135
Islamists target Nigeria's Christians;
An ISIS resurgence in the Sahel;
Iran and the Palestinian arena;
After the ceasefire, a struggle for control
A Space Week Without Strategy
Sixty-eight years ago, the Soviet Union shocked the world by launching Sputnik 1 and igniting the space race. Today, new Sputnik moments loom on the horizon, and the stakes are far higher. The country that emerges as a preeminent space power will guarantee its own economic and national security, and shape the “rules of the road” that govern the international community for decades to come. Who will that be?
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 49
Nepal forms interim cabinet, sets elections;
Beijing considers research lab at Scarborough Shoal;
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia follow diplomacy with dollars;
Japan picks Takaichi as LDP leader, set to become first female PM;
North Korea's new weapon
Lessons Learned From The Gaza War
After two years, the war in Gaza appears to be over. Following the Trump administration's active mediation last week, a tenuous ceasefire deal was struck over the weekend, and Israel's hostages have returned home. Of course, only time will tell whether this agreement will truly hold. Even so, it's not too early to draw some preliminary lessons from the conflict that just ended.
Donald Trump’s New Gaza Peace Plan Is a ‘Pipedream’
The plan relies on a future international force to dislodge the terror group, a scenario deemed highly unlikely. By failing to remove Hamas, the ceasefire merely sets the stage for the next inevitable war.
Africa Political Monitor No. 58
Sahel states quit the ICC;
Mutharika returns to power in Malawi;
Madagascar imposes curfew after protests;
Guinea approves new constitution;
China revamps Tanzania–Zambia railway;
Gen Z protests sweep Morocco
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2698
An AI race without Russia;
A Russian response to Europe's frozen assets plan;
Denmark warns of mounting Russian hybrid warfare;
Moscow helps Beijing prepare to seize Taiwan
US Space Strategy Can’t Rely on SpaceX Alone
The question is no longer whether SpaceX can deliver payloads into orbit; it is whether America’s present, profound dependence on this company could be politically weaponized in the future. The simmering summer-long feud between President Trump and Musk, which largely stemmed from the latter’s objections to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and which saw access to SpaceX used as a key bargaining chip, suggests that the answer to this question is “yes.”
Armenia’s Strategic Dilemma: Geography versus History
Armenia faces significant challenges to its political stability and geopolitical security as it attempts a high-stakes strategic pivot away from its traditional Russian security patron and toward the West—a reorientation driven not by choice but by necessity, as the country finds itself militarily inferior, diplomatically isolated, and abandoned by unreliable security guarantors.
China Policy Monitor No. 1648
China's new K visa for overseas STEM graduates sparks backlash;
China restricts exports of precision machine tools to Russia;
China to revitalize Tazara Railway;
China, U.S. strenghten cooperation after record drug seizure;
China's "breathtaking" nuclear buildup
We Have an Israel-Hamas Deal. Now Comes the Hard Part
Is the Gaza war truly over? On October 8, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had come to terms on a deal to cease hostilities and exchange hostages, something that had been largely unthinkable just weeks prior.
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 246
Iran's leaders work to co-opt Persian culture;
Iran's regime prioritizes power...;
...And eliminating opponents;
Border security, Iranian style;
A grim energy picture
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2697
Fear and loathing in Vilnius;
Another day, another Russian soft power play;
Moldova sides with Europe;
Russia's African footprint falters;
Kremlin seeks highest conscription target in nearly a decade;
Europe eyes Russia's frozen assets anew
Information Warfare Watch No. 50
China mobilizes to counter Starlink;
Moscow pushes its own messaging app;
North Korea weaponizing AI;
Rebalancing Al-Jazeera;
The scope of Hamas propaganda
Trump Should Visit Central Asia
Central Asia and the Caucasus have recently attracted American attention. Wabtec and Boeing have announced multibillion-dollar investments in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, respectively, and groups of American investors have descended on every country in the region.
Chinese Mining in West Africa: Responding to the Environment and Social Impacts
Chinese individuals, corporations, and state actors are increasingly involved in both legal and illegal mineral mining operations across West Africa. The negative impacts of these operations on water resources, forests and biodiversity, livelihoods, health, and food security across West Africa have been profound.
Resource Security Watch No. 62
Iran's water crisis and the Taliban;
Washington moves to secure critical mineral supply;
In Syria, a deepening food crisis;
All eyes on Ukraine's lithium sector;
Mining ambitions divide Pacific nations
Defense Technology Monitor No. 114
A polymer that heals on impact;
Navy tests first sea-based hypersonic launch;
Progress toward power beaming;
Sound waves expose hidden seafloor bombs;
Fix the data, fix the AI
Moscow Uses Pop Culture to Distract the Masses
As the economic problems grow, Putin’s government has increased its efforts to distract its population from the extent of the financial and political disaster it has brought upon them. This is evident in the holiday atmosphere that fills its capital city, featuring pop-up gardens, light shows, fountains, and theme parks. Street festivals are the most common form of such celebrations, with over 10,000 events held in Moscow this summer alone.
Africa Political Monitor No. 57
The RSF establishes a parallel government in Sudan;
Kenya courts Trump on trade;
A health emergency in Botswana;
Ethiopia inaugurates controversial grand renaissance dam;
African leaders unveil $100 billion green industrialization plan
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2696
Russia wages war on Ukraine’s future;
Moldovan president calls out Russian election interference;
Belarusian spy network discovered in Central Europe;
Navalny: Foul play after all
Defense Technology Monitor No. 113
Robots that walk, no circuits needed;
Army produces cheap drone swarms;
...While Navy directed energy weapon shoots them down;
Quantum sensing for defense;
French interceptor takes aim at orbital debris
Russia’s War on Ukrainian Children
President Trump is now talking tougher on Ukraine, but the White House clearly still holds out hope that negotiating a just peace between Moscow and Kyiv might be possible. To do that, however, the United States will need to fully grasp how Russia is targeting Ukraine’s future. And it will need to make a return of these innocents a core demand of its approach toward the Kremlin.
Global Islamism Monitor No. 134
Yemen's real government keeps up the fight;
Pakistan's problematic curriculum;
Beirut pushes for disarmament;
Counterterrorism cooperation of a different sort
China Policy Monitor No. 1647
China launches national campaign against deflation;
Bejing exports surveillance system to the Solomons;
U.S. business confidence in China hits new lows;
Rents are falling in China's top-tier cities;
China aims to double new energy storage capacity by 2027
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2695
A steadily worsening economy;
Blood diamonds of a different sort;
Russia and China deepen their energy partnership;
Russia drones over Germany;
Moscow green lights torture
We’ve Lost Control of Our Air Space
Without immediate legal and technological reforms, the U.S. will remain vulnerable to adversarial drone incursions that exploit current jurisdictional and strategic gaps in our existing system.
Space Shock: 18 Threats That Will Define Space Power
China isn't aiming for the Moon-it is planning for control of space itself. By 2045, Beijing plans to dominate a $10 trillion Cislunar economy, beam power to Earth from orbit, and mine asteroids worth quintillions.
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 48
Japan writes a bigger defense check;
The Philippines plant another flag in the Luzon Strait;
Seoul bids on better relations with Beijing;
India joins Russia & Co. in armed exercise;
Australia-PNG defense pact delayed, but not derailed
Mapping Iran’s Alternative Futures
Iran is a nation ripe for change. Forty-six years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, its radical religious regime is riven by contradictions—incapable of providing basic governance and increasingly rejected by its 92.5 million citizens. The June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” with Israel laid bare Iran’s vulnerabilities, but it did not spark mass uprisings or major opposition activity. Instead, the government doubled down: passing emergency legislation, executing alleged collaborators, and fast-tracking succession planning.
Why Israel’s Qatar Strike Deserves Applause
At first blush, the world seems universally outraged over Israel’s strike against Hamas leaders in Qatar – with Washington expressing unhappiness, Western leaders threatening retaliation, Arab nations convening in Doha, and the UN’s Human Rights Commission holding an “urgent debate.” But looks may be deceiving.
Africa Political Monitor No. 56
An attempted coup in Mali;
A solar surge across Africa;
Israel, South Sudan in Gaza resettlement talks;
A push to recognize Somaliland;
An M23 massacre in Eastern DRC
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2694
Russia banks on its Indian oil trade;
Russia tests "traditional values";
Russia imports Iranian weapons;
Reinforcements from Central Asia
China’s Appetite For Rosewood Is Causing Chaos In Africa
Many wealthy Chinese cherish the elegance and artistry of rosewood (hongmu) furniture. Famous for its rich burgundy color, its intricate Ming and Qing dynasty-style carvings, and its shockingly high price tag—a single bed can fetch $1 million—hongmu is distinctly Chinese.
China’s Concrete Empire in South America
Beijing is gradually linking South America together with its massive investments in infrastructure—right under Washington’s nose.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2693
Expanded ties with the Emirates
Assessing Russia's hybrid war on the West
Eavesdropping on NATO
Russia's own "Golden Dome"
The Woe's of Russia's War Economy
A Wrong Turn In The Indo-Pacific
Just a few months ago, U.S.-India relations were on an upswing. But that was then, and this is now. Ties between Washington and New Delhi have deteriorated dramatically since, for both political and economic reasons.
China Policy Monitor No. 1646
Xi Jinping makes rare visit to Tibet;
China’s icebreaker fleet arrives in the Arctic;
Chinese refiners gobble up Russian oil as India cuts imports;
As Chinese financing stalls, ADB backs Pakistan rail upgrade;
Chinese “redacted” embassy plans raise concerns in London
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2692
Tracking foreign students for classroom conformity;
Russia works to divide Poland and Ukraine;
Informational blackouts across Russia;
A shameful catalog
Global Islamism Monitor No. 133
Cairo prepares for the "day after" in Gaza;
Hezbollah's German network;
From foreign fighters to citizens?