Iran Democracy Monitor No. 240
Iran Makes Strides in Tajikistan...;
...As Tehran and Moscow Inch Ever Closer;
The Growing Tehran-Caracas Connection;
An Iranian Execution Spree
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Publications
Global Islamism Monitor No. 125
Cracks In The Taliban Consensus...;
...And More Movement Toward International Rehabilitation;
The Birth of Syria's Morality Police;
Turkey, Europe, and Syrian Jihadism
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 42
Vietnam's Booming China Trade;
More Pressure on Manila;
Now, A Helping Hand From Moscow;
Beijing Strengthens Its Grip on The Pacific Islands
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2668
The Ukraine War's Criminal Alumni;
Now, Rehabilitating HTS;
Dugin's New Focus: Refashioning Academia
African Democracy Is In Retreat. That’s A Problem For America
When the Soviet Union collapsed nearly a quarter-century ago, it led to triumphalism about the "end of history" and the ultimate victory of liberal democracy over other forms of government. Since then, it's been a difficult couple of decades for global freedom.
Ukraine Reform Monitor No. 15
A Personnel Scandal Roils Military Procurement...;
...And Gets Others Involved;
Court Reforms Kick Into High Gear;
Ukrainians Fear Graft More Than War
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2667
Targeting Russia's Shadow Fleet;
Estonia Issues a Call to Arms...;
...And A Maritime Warning;
The Plight of Putin's Central Asian Soldiers
China Policy Monitor No. 1625
PRC Influence Center Stage at Yoon Impeachment Hearings;
Cook Islands Inks Deal In Beijing, Upsets New Zealand;
U.S. Amends Wording on Taiwan Independence;
China Repatriates 1000 Scam Victims from Myanmar;
China Backs U.S.-Russia Ukraine Peace Initative
Africa Political Monitor No. 46
Russia Begins Final Withdrawal From its Syrian Naval Base…;
… In Favor Of New Accommodations In Sudan;
Senegal Moves Closer to a French Departure;
Djibouti’s Foreign Minister to Lead African Union;
Satellite Imagery Reveals Rwandan Casualties;
African Leaders Meet Over DRC Crisis;
Iran and Sudan Strike a Deal
Conference Summary: 2025 “Airlie Dialogue”
On February 12th, the American Foreign Policy Council convened its third “Airlie Dialogue” conference at the University Club in Washington, DC. The full-day event brought together leading scholars, officials and experts for a day of discussions about the common intellectual fight against Islamic extremism, and the “war of ideas” now taking place in the Muslim World. What follows is a summary of the conference’s proceedings.
China Policy Monitor No. 1624
In 2024, $168 Billion Exited China;
PRC Cranes Raise Homeland Security Concern at U.S. Ports;
China Merges Hundreds of Banks to Alleviate Bad Loans;
China Smuggles Parts for Russian Drones – Estonia;
Beijing To Underwrite Vietnam's $8.3 Billion Railway
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 22
Sensing an opening, India deepens its ties to the Taliban;
Pakistan, Bangladesh revive direct shipping route;
Sri Lanka throws in with Chinese energy giant;
Afghan refugees in a bind
Europe Can’t Do It Alone
It might be too much for the Trump administration to expect that Europe will guarantee a Ukraine peace settlement they had no part in making.
Resource Security Watch No. 59
DOD considers climate change a growing security threat in Africa;
Tehran faces shutdowns amid worsening air quality;
A new cold war over rare earth elements;
Famine in Sudan expands as government resists foreign aid;
China's water policies endanger central Asian stability
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2666
The Kremlin's War On Everyone;
An Unexpected Solution To Europe's Gas Crisis Emerges...;
...While The Baltics Look West For Energy;
Moscow's Challenges – And Its Plan To Overcome Them;
Denmark Warns, Nato Weakness Is Provocative
The Case For CACE
A Central Asia-Caucasus-European Corridor (CACE) would reinvigorate historic trade routes and improve regional energy security.
Information Warfare Watch No. 43
How Russia Is Boosting Germany's AfD;
India Seeks To Regulate Social Media...;
...While Islamabad Adopts A Scorched-Earth Strategy;
Poland Needs To Up Its Counter-Disinformation Game;
A Tech Breakthrough In Targeting Disinformation
Africa Political Monitor No. 45
African Nations Pledge $35 Billion For Electrification;
Congo Crisis Escalates As M23 Rebels Advance;
New Signs Of Life For Militants In Nigeria;
West African Nations Withdraw From Ecowas;
U.S.-South Africa Tensions Escalate Over Land Reform Law
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2665
Russia's LNG Lifeline;
North Korea... No Longer At The Front;
The Reasons For Russia's Downhill Demography;
Laying The Groundwork For A New Draft;
From Russia, With Love
Trump Needs A New ‘Maximum Pressure’ Policy ... Against Russia
For all of its public rhetoric to the contrary, Europe has failed to meaningfully wean itself off Russian energy, a key strategic vulnerability. In fact, the continent's dependence on Moscow has grown...
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2664
The Grim Toll Of Putin's War;
Moscow Thinks Beyond Damascus;
More Signs Of Economic Fragility;
How Is Russia's Recruitment Drive Really Going?
China Policy Monitor No. 1623
China Builds World's Largest Fusion Energy Reactor;
PRC Influence Operation Pushs For Overthrow Of Spain's Government;
Florida Police Bust Smuggling Operation, Detain 26 Chinese Migrants;
Massive Dam In Tibet Alarms China's Neighbors;
China's Spies Recruit U.S. Clearance Holders
Thousand Sails: Why Low Earth Orbit is the Next Frontier for Great Power Competition between the U.S. and China
As China rapidly expands its network of satellite mega-constellations, it grows in informational power. As a result, it could acquire a dominant position in global connectivity, greatly expanding the reach and impact of its messaging, propaganda and influence operations.
Africa Political Monitor No. 44
World Bank Suspends Gabon Disbursements;
Kenya Turns To The Uae;
Nigeria Becomes A Brics Partner;
Sudanese Army Captures Strategic City;
Illegal Mining Crackdown Causes Chaos In South Africa;
New Mozambican President Sworn In Amid Mass Protests
Defense Technology Monitor No. 108
Quantum Cloning: The Future of Teleportation?;
SOCOM Seeks Hybrid Micro Drones;
Cutting The Cord: Wireless Power for Troops;
China's Microwave Superweapon: Science Fiction or Reality?;
From Warrior Suit to Carrying Companion
Global Islamism Monitor No. 124
Afghanistan's Other Islamists Rear Their Heads...;
...As Riyadh Moves Closer To Kabul;
Bracing For An Imperial Turkey;
How Hezbollah And Iran Are Adapting
China Policy Monitor No. 1622
Cia: Covid-19 Probably Leaked From Wuhan Lab;
Iranian Cargo Ships Transport Missile Propellant From China;
Philippine Authorities Seize Spy Car, Arrests Prc Agents;
"The U.S. Does Not Support Taiwan Independence" – Rubio;
China Affirms Support For The Who And Paris Climate Deal
Defense Technology Monitor No. 107
China Expands Quantum Satellite Network;
X-37B Tests Novel Orbital Maneuvers;
China Sets The Pace In Global Tech Standards;
Innovative Motor Propels Hypersonic Testing;
Building Better Ai... With Ai
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2663
An Energy Crisis In Russia's Moldovan Enclave;
How The Kremlin Is Combatting Demographic Decline;
Is Moscow Battling Back In Kursk?;
Russia's Ailing Economy
China Policy Monitor No. 1621
University Of Michigan Cuts Ties With Shanghai Jiao Tong University;
Chinese Owned Ship Suspected Of Cutting Taiwan's Undersea Cable;
China Works With Gangs To Gain Intelligence On Taiwan;
China'S Population Falls For A Third Straight Year;
U.S. Sanctions On Russia's "Shadow Fleet" Push Up China's Costs
Does the World Care About Gaza’s Future Under Hamas?
But lest anyone believe that Israel’s detractors in the region and across the world really care about innocent Gazans, events on the ground since the ceasefire took effect show that’s truly a farcical notion.
China’s AI Ambitions and U.S. Competition
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform economies, reshape societies, and redefine what it means to be a global power. China’s pursuit of AI advancement poses a challenge to U.S. interests.
In Foreign Policy, Half-Measures Won’t Do
When scholars look back at the foreign policy of the last administration, they’re liable to conclude that the “Biden Doctrine,” to the extent that there was one, wasn’t an elaborate, ambitious and well-thought-out affair, the way some pundits have suggested. Rather, it was a series of tactical responses to world events — responses that were ultimately undermined by the White House’s fear of adverse consequences.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2662
Warsaw in The Kremlin's Crosshairs;
The Ukraine War Is Driving Russian Demographic Decline;
Chechnya As Military Training Hub;
Russia's Ties To The Taliban Run Deep;
Are The Abraham Accords Coming Back To Life?
As strife abates, countries are remembering why ties to Israel are a good bet.
Beware of Premature Talks with Iran
As he prepares to enter the White House, Donald Trump should recognize that even a weakened Tehran is still dangerous.
China Policy Monitor No. 1620
Deflation Grips China;
As Jobs Dwindle, Youth Flock To Civil Service Exams;
Foreign Degree Holders Banned From Civil Service Exam;
Iran Sells Oil Stored In China To Fund Proxies;
Uyghurs Detained In Thailand Face Deportation Back To China
Africa Political Monitor No. 43
Unrest in Mozambique sparks mass exodus;
African nations continue wave of French troop expulsions…;
…After Macron’s contemptuous remarks;
U.S. defense officials visit Benin, Côte d'ivoire;
Biden administration declares Sudan's civil war a genocide;
Chad’s military foils assault on presidential complex
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2661
How the FSB is evolving;
A deepening science deficit;
Russia repositions after Assad;
Moscow's drone-enabled espionage
Trump Will End U.S. Passivity in the Western Hemisphere
Prioritizing the Americas after decades of neglect marks a return to traditional U.S. strategy.
Global Islamism Monitor No. 123
The Kremlin comes around on the Taliban;
Syria's crisis equals new opportunities for the Islamic state;
UNWRA has a radicalism problem
China Policy Monitor No. 1619
China trades weapons to Houthis in exchange for Red Sea passage;
PRC hackers access U.S. treasury workstations and documents;
China approves construction of mega-dam in Tibet;
China rolls out nationwide private pension plan;
Beijing raises the retirement age
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2660
Persecuting Navalny, continued;
A shakeup in the Russian intelligence ranks;
Moscow looks to Africa;
Finland fights back;
Homegrown resistance to academic propaganda
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 41
South Korea martial law debacle leaves U.S. regional priorities in doubt;
Signs of a thaw between Washington and Phnom Penh;
Thailand has it both ways on space exploration;
North Korean soldiers confirmed dead in Ukraine;
Pacific Island nations tentatively open protected seabeds
Israel Faces a Reshuffled Strategic Deck in Syria
Suddenly, Israel has a Syria problem. For years, officials in Jerusalem had banked on a relatively predictable balance of power with the neighboring regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Despite Assad's enduring hostility toward the Jewish state and the inherent weakness of his regime, a tenuous status quo had been struck between the two countries, making it generally possible to anticipate how the Syrian dictator would behave. This has served as a perverse source of comfort over the past 14 months, as Israel has found itself preoccupied with the threat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and more recently, that of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Rethinking Iran’s Future
When might meaningful change come to Iran, and how? Nearly 50 years after the country's last major political transformation – the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's radical Islamist revolt against the monarchy of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi – that question continues to bedevil policymakers, both in Washington and far beyond the Capital Beltway.
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 40
Beijing's forward-deployed fortress in the South China Sea;
Indonesia's agreement with Beijing muddies the waters;
U.S.-deployed task force in the Philippines revealed;
Taiwan remains an outsider in Pacific trade agreement
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2659
Seeking a post-Assad Modus Vivendi;
Subverting Ukraine from the inside;
Another use for Russia's shadow fleet;
More tyranny of the law
Is Putin’s Collapse Possible?
The question of why totalitarian regimes suddenly and unexpectedly collapse has long perplexed researchers, generating no shortage of post-mortems and scholarly analyses after the fact. Accurately predicting the longevity of such regimes is a risky enterprise, and the subject of this report – an examination of how close the regime created by Russian President Vladimir Putin might be to its downfall – is inherently speculative in nature. Yet, as a direct witness to the collapse of the Soviet Union, I have a clear sense of how the sudden collapse of seemingly unshakable power can occur. What follows is my best assessment of the current state of Putin’s regime, drawing on both general observations and extensive personal experience.
Warfare in the Age of AI
U.S., China Locked in AI Arms Race Where There are No Winners
Artificial Intelligence and its Influence in Chinese Military Thought and Operations
A New Age Of Deception In Warfare
The Dual-Use Dilemma in Military AI Advancements
How AI is turbocharging disinformation