South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 16
A new Indo-European trade deal;
India courts Bhutan...;
...And eyes Africa for strategic minerals;
Pakistan’s new naval assets foreshadow a maritime arms race
A new Indo-European trade deal;
India courts Bhutan...;
...And eyes Africa for strategic minerals;
Pakistan’s new naval assets foreshadow a maritime arms race
After Xi Jinping took power in China in 2012, he promptly began a series of purges and ideological crackdowns that have set the tone for his rule.
Classical computing keeps pace with quantum rivals;
A more bulletproof exoskeleton;
Marine life-inspired armor boosts protection;
Plasma stealth tech could render aircraft invisible;
Electronic warfare and transparent battlefields
On April 13th, the "shadow war" that has raged between Israel and Iran for decades finally broke into the open. That day, Iran's clerical regime fired over 300 drones and missiles at Israeli territory in retaliation for Israel's targeting of a top Iranian military commander in Syria days earlier. The massive Iranian attack, and Israel's limited response days later, has ushered in an ominous new "balance of terror" in the Middle East.
Floods paralyze parts of the Persian Gulf;
A mounting Sudanese hunger crisis;
Another step forward for Russia in the Arctic;
China’s floating reactors spark U.S. worries
What might Moscow’s endgame be? The ultimate goal seems to be to recreate a Russia-dominated “Union” state that at least some, if not all, of the former Soviet republics will be forced to join.
Russia’s alternative futures;
The Pentagon's satellite security concerns break into the open;
Russia blacklists Freedom House;
Russian income for Ukrainian defense
U.S. sanctions Chinese companies for supplying Russia’s military;
China’s wealthy are movin' out;
China subsidizes fentanyl sales to the U.S.;
China stops providing real-time data on stock trades;
Forty percent of Americans see China as an enemy: pew
Governance pains in Afghanistan;
Mali makes counterterrorism progress;
Reconfiguring al-hol... and the Iraqi role;
Life after Wagner;
Moscow versus the demilitarization of space;
Caribbean conscripts;
A helping hand from Beijing
The global push to stop the bloodshed in Gaza is understandable. But a push that solely pressures the original victim of attack (Israel) and demands nothing significant of the perpetrator (Hamas) will just embolden the latter.
And at home, Iranian regime officials—who not long ago were on the back foot in the face of sustained grassroots protests—have redoubled their domestic repression, launching a sweeping national plan to enforce restrictions on female dress and conduct. What accounts for this reversal of fortune? A great deal can be attributed to permissive American policy.
After Crocus, a Russian clampdown;
Washington, Baghdad differ on ISIS danger;
Rethinking counterterrorism in Africa;
The Iranian hand behind Hamas terror
All proposed solutions to the deterrence problem on the Taiwan Strait require the United States to modernize and expand manufacturing facilities and infrastructure to increase the production and availability of military hardware.
A resilient Russian supply network;
The costs of opposing the war;
A growing Russian presence in Libya;
Sweden hardens its energy infrastructure…;
...And eyes Russian espionage in the Baltics
Our most significant achievement during those years was fostering unmediated contact between Western scholars and Soviet social scientists working in the vast network of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The effect was like opening the window of a sealed room.
South Africa tilts east;
Report: America needs Africa's mineral wealth;
Why Senegal matters;
Russia dips its toe into Africa's nuclear energy market
Israel's crisis, India's workforce;
Sri Lanka scrambles for an economic lifeline;
A refuge in India... for some;
Now Delhi is courting the Taliban, too
NATO rushes to defend Ukraine's airspace;
Moscow's plan to destabilize America;
Germany rolls up Russian spy and sabotage network;
Demonizing the opposition;
A Russian maritime threat to the Baltic Sea;
Russian scientist jailed for treason
Border official acquitted…;
...While ex-defense personnel move into the crosshairs…;
....As Ukraine's agriculture minister falls from grace;
Another step toward partnership with Europe;
Strong-arming foreign investors... again
Russian disinfo shapes Slovakia's vote;
China tightens the digital reins;
The Taliban clamps down on Afghan media
Xi meets with former Taiwanese President;
China scrambles fighter jets to shadow U.S. Navy plane;
Manila: China recruiting members of the Philippine military for espionage;
PRC spies target Dutch industries: Amsterdam;
China establishes information warfare unit
A new energy source... in a different gulf;
China's rise to clean energy sector dominance;
A geothermal breakthrough;
Can Washington and Beijing cooperate on climate?;
Floods threaten the mining status quo in Russia
The Islamic Republic's war on women, rebooted;
Tehran's hand in Sudan’s turmoil…;
...And Iranian designs on the Red Sea;
Iran's version of the war on drugs;
A warning about Iran... from Fatah
Instead of hasbara, Israel would do well to embrace a new approach to strategic communications built around speed, engagement, and influence.
After three years U.S., China military talks resume in Hawaii;
Security lapses led to deadly suicide attack on Chinese engineers in Pakistan;
China's banks reject payments from Russian electronics importers;
China is "flooding the UK with fake Royal Mail stamps": Royal Mail;
U.S. and China hold talks to deport more Chinese nationals
Cracks in the Moscow-Beijing alliance?;
Quiet talks about a prisoner swap;
Putin calls for space nuclear development
While Moscow claims that it wants to replace the “rules-based international order” with a fairer system for all, Russia’s day-to-day behavior seems more appropriate for a rules-free system—one where right is determined simply by muscle and the nerve to use it.
Fear and loathing in Moscow;
The Kremlin enforces conformity;
A strange nuclear emergency in Khabarovsk;
The high cost of Putin's adventurism;
The (surprising) view from Beijing
Israel versus Al-Jazeera;
Advanced tech powers Chinese disinfo
If the Biden administration is intent on keeping the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in place, it would do well to make its existence contingent on a meaningful crackdown against Hezbollah.
Israel and the United States cannot afford to dismiss Iran’s escalatory strike on Saturday as a mere demonstration.
In tandem with its military offensive against Hamas, however, Israel has experienced a deeper strategic shift. A sea change is now taking place in Israel’s approach to security affairs, informed by the errors and miscalculations that made the atrocities of October 7th possible.
China's coast guard increases its presence around Kinmen;
Taiwan respectfully declines China's earthquake aid;
China quietly pushes into Russia's far east;
Russia uses more Chinese yuan;
Kenya considers curbing TikTok
Iran is making a serious play for Sudan, and it merits attention from Washington.
Russia and Iran: a burgeoning military alliance;
Tajik nationals linked to ISIS terror in Moscow;
Mounting nuclear threats against NATO;
A deeper Russian footprint in Syria
Increasingly, ISIS banks on cryptocurrency;
Target: Europe;
Do the Palestinians still prefer Hamas?;
Rehabilitating the Taliban, one country at a time
Holding back support of aid to Ukraine for fear of worse to come from Russia is a surefire way to ensure that Moscow presses its advantage and engages in still more rogue behavior.
The growing demonization of Israel is not unstoppable.
China and Russia seek unhackable comms;
China's Taiwan plans include an anti-tank assault;
Moving toward super semiconductors;
China simulates hypersonic strike;
Powering future soldiers better
The promise of European aid prompts new reform proposals;
Cutting the Ukrainian bureaucracy down to size;
The wages of Ukraine's judicial reform;
Procurement schemes and high politics…;
...And product manipulation to boot
U.S. Army special forces train Taiwanese troops;
Marines go virtual to address lack of Indo-Pacific training grounds;
With an eye on China, Japan announces maritime domain awareness aid;
Hanoi poised for explosive growth;
Cambodia's airport dreams stall
The Islamic Republic and information warfare;
Hamas takes a victory lap in Tehran…;
...As the Iranian regime ponders pressing its advantage;
A tug of war in the south Caucasus
Cumulatively, these factors will help determine what lies ahead for the Palestinians. But if Team Biden ignores them in favor of quick fixes, or worse still, empty pandering to its constituents, it will only end up perpetuating their misery.
Talkative combatants, powered by AI;
Training via enhanced laser tag;
The promise of quantum batteries;
New, more versatile vaccines;
Drones of infinite duration
Xi: China's officials unprepared for "great struggle";
Seven Chinese hackers indicted for targeting U.S. officials, companies;
China's cyberattacks on UK, NZ parliamentarians;
Five Chinese and 1 Pakistani killed in suicide bombing;
Foreign consulting firms a "cover" to steal state secrets, ministry says
It stands to reason that the sooner the House of Saud launches a serious campaign to convince its own subjects rapprochement with Israel is in their long term interest, the better off the Kingdom will be.
The March 22 attack in Moscow may be a potential portent of things to come. Russia’s Mideast policy has given foreign Islamist militants several excuses for conducting murderous attacks, and Russia’s Muslim minority groups are feeling alienated from, and sometimes hostile to, the prevailing political order.
Russia increases its African footprint;
The U.S. sanctions Zimbabwe... again;
A new African "great game";
Iran's Sudan play goes sideways