Publications

Central Asian States and the Bagram Dilemma

December 16, 2025 Aleksandar Ivanović Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

The tense clash in opinions over Bagram has left Central Asian countries, Afghanistan’s northern neighbors, in a complex position. The five states initially hinted at opposition to Trump’s efforts, shown in a joint statement of the Moscow Format of Consultations on Afghanistan.

Kinmen: Taiwan’s Forgotten Line

December 15, 2025 Shayna Faul The National Interest

Yet the real challenge facing Kinmen isn’t military—it’s a matter of political economy. Administratively tied to Taiwan, Kinmen illustrates the complex dynamics of geopolitical influence and economic integration.

China Policy Monitor No. 1657

December 15, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

A Coast Guard standoff between disputed islands;
Amid demographic crisis, China starts taxing birth control;
China delays publishing home sales data;
China cancels Japanese music acts amid frosty ties;
Russia sells Yuan-dominated bonds

Space Roles and Missions: From Fragmentation to Unity

December 11, 2025 Peter GarretsonJackson Schnabel American Foreign Policy Council

The United States faces a fundamental organizational crisis in space. America’s space enterprise remains fragmented across multiple agencies with unclear roles, overlapping responsibilities, and competing authorities. This institutional confusion undermines national security, stifles commercial innovation, and threatens U.S. leadership in the vital space domain.

Europe’s Next Big Task Is Military Transport

December 4, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Military readiness isn't simply about money. It also depends on mobility. Put another way, even if it is produced in greater quantities than before, European battlefield equipment won't do the Ukrainians—or anyone else—much good if it can't be transported to the frontlines.

China Policy Monitor No. 1656

December 1, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

U.S. restricts visas for Central Americans with PRC ties;
Huawei, ZTE seal 5G deals with Vietnam amid U.S. tariffs;
Taipei announces $40 billion budget for "Taiwan Dome";
PBOC expands crackdown on cyber currencies;
China is closing the military power gap

Deterrence and the Industrial Base: the U.S. and China

November 28, 2025 Larry M. Wortzel American Foreign Policy Council

China has emerged as America’s primary geopolitical, economic, and military rival, rapidly building a modern industrial base tightly aligned with its strategic ambitions. The United States, by contrast, now depends on overseas suppliers for key components and resources essential to its defense industrial base.

China Policy Monitor No. 1655

November 26, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

China criticizes, sanctions Japan over PM's Taiwan comments;
China builds the world's first floating artificial island;
UK set to approve new PRC mega embassy;
Amsterdam suspends Nexperia takeover;
Chinese stakes in Italy's energy grid raise red flags

Beijing Rewrites the Story of Taiwan

November 25, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

Over the past several years, China's information warfare capabilities have grown by leaps and bounds as Beijing has tapped into the disinformation expertise of its longstanding strategic partner, Russia.
But the most immediate target of Chinese messaging remains Taiwan. As officials and experts there made clear on a recent trip, the People's Republic of China's informational assault is changing—and intensifying.

Africa Political Monitor No. 61

November 24, 2025 Sarah Way

UN backs renewed talks on Morocco’s Western Sahara proposal;
UAE accused of supplying weapons to RSF;
Al-Qaeda-linked militants tighten fuel blockade;
The perils of Chinese mining;
Guinea seeks iron ore leverage

China Policy Monitor No. 1654

November 24, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

China has invested $2.1 trillion in strategic sectors around the world;
MI5: PRC spies target UK lawmakers using LinkedIn;
Britain announces plan to counter PRC espionage;
China funds $29 million revamp of South African military base;
Beijing warns citizens of risks amid African gold rush

Europe’s Hidden Timebox

November 21, 2025 Laura Linderman The Dispatch

The Trump administration’s success in brokering the Armenia-Azerbaijan deal demonstrates what’s possible when the United States engages seriously in the region. As the TRIPP corridor begins development, American policymakers would do well to look beyond immediate economic opportunities to the strategic landscape taking shape around them. The Caucasus is no longer Russia’s exclusive domain. The South has transformed. The North may follow, with consequences extending far beyond Russia’s borders.

Charting Iran’s Influence in Africa

November 18, 2025 American Foreign Policy Council

Although Tehran’s activities in Africa tend to receive far less attention than its machinations in the Middle East, Europe, or Latin America, they form a critical pillar of the Islamic Republic’s global strategy.

Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 50

November 18, 2025 Thomas S. SextonShayna Faul

Fruits of the recent ASEAN summit;
APEC summit wraps with U.S.-China trade trucel;
Japan's new prime minister hits the ground running;
Australia and U.S. strike critical-minerals deal;
Pakistan-India tensions spike anew after terror attacks

How America Can Help Vietnam-and Itself

November 18, 2025 Lawrence J. Haas The National Interest

A recent week of meetings in Vietnam with Communist Party leaders, government officials, and other influential figures reveals how Hanoi views today’s economic and geopolitical challenges, as well as how Washington might reassure the country about its commitment to a deeper U.S.-Vietnam relationship after months of unhelpful friction between the two.

China Policy Monitor No. 1653

November 17, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

Beijing's AI-driven hacking campaign;
Trump-Xi meeting spurs agricultural deals;
China trade surplus with Germany hits new high;
China is a "very significant" challenge to German car companies;
Visa-free policy extended through 2026, Sweden added

The CIS Summit and Central Asia’s Afghan Challenge

November 14, 2025 Aleksandar Ivanović Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

On October 10, 2025, the CIS heads of state summit was held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. Multiple packages of documents were signed, targeting trade, crime, and most importantly, security. Security challenges from Afghanistan, including extremism and border conflicts, have continued since the Taliban takeover, and these recent agreements make up another component of Central Asia’s lengthy efforts to reduce the recurring concerns that can potentially spill over into their territories.

Armenia Faces an Information War on Three Fronts

November 14, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Big changes are afoot in the South Caucasus. Back in August, in a move that passed largely unnoticed in the American press, the Trump administration pulled off a major diplomatic coup when it brought together Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to ink a joint declaration formally ending decades of hostility between the two regional rivals. 

Why Russia’s Foreign Minister May Have A Murky Future

November 13, 2025 Ilan I. Berman Forbes

A regime stalwart who has long carried Putin’s water (and boosted his neo-imperial agenda), Lavrov has been conspicuously absent in recent days from a number of high-profile functions. The Foreign Minister, usually a fixture, failed to attend a meeting of Russia’s National Security Council on November 5th – purportedly “by agreement” (presumably with Putin). He was also cut out of Russia’s delegation to the upcoming G20 meeting in South Africa later this month, with a much more junior official, Deputy Chief of Staff Maxim Oreshkin, tapped to lead the Russian team instead. 

Africa Political Monitor No. 60

November 10, 2025 Sarah Way

Nigeria grapples with separatist protests...;
...As Trump threatens military action;
Tanzania's President declared election winner amid violent protests;
America eyes Liberia's critical minerals;
RSF takes key city of El Fasher from Sudanese military

China Policy Monitor No. 1652

November 10, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

Defunding RFA and VOA creates information void in Tibet;
Three PRC nationals arrested in Tbilisi for trying to buy uranium...;
...And three others busted for smuggling biological materials;
Chinese-made buses can be stopped remotely - Norway;
Xi commissions China's first supercarrier

Vladimir Putin’s Nuclear Threats Are Getting Old

November 4, 2025 Thomas Kent The National Interest

For decades, the Kremlin has sought to intimidate foreign powers by threatening to use nuclear weapons. In the current Ukraine war, nuclear threats have been a key way by which Russia’s government has sought to restrain Western aid to Kyiv. The efficacy of Moscow’s nuclear brinksmanship, however, seems to be waning.

China Policy Monitor No. 1651

November 4, 2025 Joshua Eisenman

China's ambitious new AI+ plan;
One Chinese firm aims to expand autonomous van fleet...;
...While another debuts humanoid child;
Economic troubles persist;
Beijing urges vigilance against "irrational competition"