Russia Policy Monitor No. 2717
An African arms surge;
A new era without new start;
Russia, the spoilsport;
The cult of the "special military operation"
An African arms surge;
A new era without new start;
Russia, the spoilsport;
The cult of the "special military operation"
In February 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Budapest to herald a “new golden age” of relations, signing a major civilian nuclear deal and pledging a “financial protective shield” for Hungary. This visit followed President Trump’s “complete and total” endorsement of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who currently trails challenger Péter Magyar in the polls ahead of the April 12 election. Critics warn that making bilateral relations contingent on individual leaders turns long-term alliances into fragile transactional affairs. Furthermore, Orbán’s continued energy dependence on Russia and his security ties to China present a significant paradox for the administration’s broader “Great Power” strategy.
Is Russia sending military supplies to Cuba?;
Russians plan for austerity;
Russia's oil revenue plummets;
A coming Russian criminal wave?;
Europe isn't ready for a Russian incursion
After years of military involvement in the Syrian theater, America is understandably eager to turn the page. But doing so prematurely risks abandoning a known and capable counterterrorism partner for a still-untested arrangement. That is hardly a recipe for lasting stability.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has produced a paradox for US strategy: it has significantly reduced Russia’s strategic long-term power while hardening Moscow into a more dangerous, risk-tolerant adversary for the United States and its allies and partners in Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.
The January 2026 internet blackout in Iran, following protests that erupted on December 28, has exposed the deep failures of the National Information Network (NIN).
Concerns linger despite TikTok's sale;
Greek colonel caught selling Patriot systems data to China;
Panama voids CK Hutchison Port contract;
Chinese reporter caught spying in Prague;
Uzbek farmers surrender land to Chinese investors
China doesn’t need to invade America to control its farmland. It just needs to buy it. Through state-backed conglomerates, shell companies and global acquisitions, Beijing is doing just that, gaining fiduciary leverage over farmland across our nation and threatening America’s long-term food security. It is clear that more must be done to prevent the Chinese Communist Party, our foremost global competitor, from weakening America’s agricultural independence from within.
China's export controls spark protest from Japan;
...As Takaichi digs in;
Another flashpoint in Sino-Indian ties;
Despite ceasefire, Thai-Cambodian tensions persist;
China's new canal project for Southeast Asian trade
A helping hand from the PRC;
Russia's rare-earths strategy;
A Russian connection in the Epstein Files;
Russian imperialism looks North
A deal with Iran at this moment may prolong the unnatural life of the mullah’s regime.
Iranians negotiate like they’re in the bazaar,” a Middle East scholar once wrote. “Westerners negotiate like they’re shopping at Macy’s.”
A change in Russia’s government is more likely to take place than conventional wisdom allows.
All Uzbek eyes on telegram;
Shifting Syria policy...;
...Puts CentCom on guard...;
...And the SDF on the back foot
The strategic logic underpinning Israel's outreach to Somaliland, in other words, is compelling. It simultaneously provides the country with a strategic foothold opposite Yemen, greater proximity to the ongoing threat posed by the Houthis, a deeper stake in Red Sea security, and the potential to become a much bigger player in African politics. For those reasons, Israel's newest partnership is well positioned to endure.
The Organization of Turkic States has expanded beyond its cultural foundations to address regional challenges through green finance, digital innovation, and artificial intelligence initiatives. Led by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the OTS established the Turkic Green Finance Council and proposed collaborative AI networks, responding to economic pressures from sanctions and oil price fluctuations.
The Organization of Turkic States has evolved its approach toward Tajikistan, shifting from explicit support for Kyrgyzstan during border conflicts to more inclusive language. Early OTS statements emphasized brotherly solidarity with Kyrgyzstan while implicitly attributing blame to Tajikistan, prompting sharp criticism from Dushanbe. Following diplomatic progress culminating in the March 2025 Kyrgyz-Tajik border treaty, OTS rhetoric shifted significantly.
CPC, KMT revive a long-stalled party-to-party forum;
Xi-Starmer Beijing summit signals warming of PRC-UK ties;
China advances dual-use quantum sensing network;
Beijing threatens retaliation over potential Darwin Port seizure;
CSRC tightens cross-border investment flows amid surging demand
Russia's disposable foreign legion...;
...And dishonest recruitment tactics;
Preparing for the end of Kadyrov;
The state reaches into Russia's schools;
Rebuilding ties with the new Syria
Top general under investigation for "grave violations";
China expands power generation for AI;
China "shot itself in the foot" with the One Child Policy;
Peru's president had secret meetings with Chinese businessmen;
China buys more Indian goods, but large trade deficits persist
Today’s internet blackout in Iran, in other words, is merely the most visible manifestation of an accelerating information arms race. Iran’s radical regime is racing to consolidate digital control over its captive population. If it succeeds in doing so, Iran’s brave protesters will find themselves truly cut off from the outside world.
Despite many US inducements, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has turned away from normalization with Israel and broader US alignment in the Middle East.
Russia's shadow still falls over Venezuela;
Russia reemerges in Syria;
Spy nuns in Sweden;
Airline shortages and old aircraft
PRC reports largest ever trade surplus;
Chinese, Canadian leaders ink deals, slash tariffs;
State TV airs PLA "decapitation" strike drill on Taiwan;
China debuts "Drone Killer" weapons system;
China's East China Sea gas exploration fuels tensions with Japan
Canadian and European political leaders of various stripes seem to be tripping over themselves to articulate a sensible position on the escalating conflict between NATO allies over Greenland, a Danish colonial possession until 1953 that is now an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, and a territory the United States now seeks. However, this collective incoherence does nothing to reduce tensions, much less help overcome the danger we all face. As a Canadian, I propose an outside-the-box compromise solution that puts Canada First.
Big changes are afoot in Eurasia. Over the past several months, the region has undergone a series of tectonic shifts, as countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus have recalibrated their respective foreign policies and expanded ties with the West.
Beijing will pay $26B in pregnancy and childcare subsidies in 2026;
China, Russia, Iran hold naval drills in South Africa;
China's influence will grow, as trust in U.S. fades -- New poll;
Navy sailor gets 16 years for selling classified material to China;
Beijing installs loyalist to lead AIIB
Putin builds a new palace;
Russian energy continues to fuel Europe;
The targeting of Russia's military elite;
Ongoing questions about Kadyrov's health;
Russia's shadow fleet seeks new protections
To make sense of how Gamsakhurdia engaged with Georgian Christian mysticism, I organize his sources into two analytical categories—what I term the “Gelati current” and the “prophetic current.” These are, crucially, not divisions that Gamsakhurdia himself articulated, but rather, groupings that help illuminate the different functions these sources served in his thinking.
This piece is the second in a three-part series on the esoteric sources of Zviad Gamsakhurdia’s worldview. The first piece introduces the series and provides theoretical and historical context for its material and claims. This piece focuses on anthroposophy. The third piece will focus on Georgian Christian mysticism.
In these pieces, I begin (but certainly do not finish) the process of undertaking that engagement by tracing and examining the esoteric sources that shaped Gamsakhurdia’s worldview. To Gamsakhurdia, Georgia was not just a newly independent state among many newly independent states, but the bearer of an ancient history and a future mission of great significance. It was a chosen mediator between—and synthesizer of—worlds: Western and Eastern, earthly and divine.
A major loss of confidence...;
...And a problematic sector...;
...Fans worries in Europe;
Russia seizes on the corruption narrative...;
...As heads roll in Kyiv;
But at the end, Zelinsky's popularity rebounds;
Russia plans long-term nuclear investments;
More recruitment of ethnic minorities on the horizon;
Putin declares a holy war;
A Russian conspiracy discovered in Kyiv...;
...And another on the border with Norway
Shortly after space week in October, investment firm JP Morgan announced a $10 billion investment plan targeting industries critical for United States national security. In addition to things like nanomaterials, autonomous robotics and solar power, the announcement also focused on funding spacecraft and space launches.
President Donald Trump has been busy on the world stage of late—toppling Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro in a precision strike by U.S. forces, warning Tehran not to turn its guns on Iran’s protestors, and pushing for Russia-Ukraine peace.
Despite a lack of organization and vision for the future, the protests rocking Iran signal that the Islamic Republic is running out of time.
The new Executive Order on “ensuring space superiority” issued by President Trump is a milestone.
Yet another Russian General assassinated;
Russia's anti-Ukrainian lawfare;
Putin calls up reservists to protect infrastructure;
Russia's military continues to abuse its own soldiers
Wang Yi hosts Thai and Cambodian FMs for talks in Yunnan;
Russia vows to support China if it attacks Taiwan;
Beijing sanctions U.S. defense firms, seizes "non-existent" assets;
China proposes strict new rules to curb AI companion addiction;
Revised civil aviation law covers the "low altitude economy"
When it comes to a nation's potential, few factors matter more than demographics. The pace of a country's population determines a great many things, from the vibrancy of its society to its global competitiveness.
Understanding Russia’s Global War
The Informational Front in Russia’s War
Supply Chains and Security: Lessons from the Ukrainian Front
Ukraine and the Making of a Defense Innovation Industry
Understanding NATO’s New Mission
Just how widespread is domestic support for Russia's war on Ukraine, really?
The EU strikes back...sort of;
A return to the Russian Empire as Cossacks fight in Ukraine;
Russia's massive war spending;
Europe's plan B
The peripheral, energy-rich areas of Russia are bearing the brunt of the human and economic costs of the Ukraine War.
Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity will link Turkey and the West
Syria and the potential for instability
Algorithm-driven radicalization;
The morality police come to Chechnya;
Ra'am's murky furniture
U.S. approves $11 billion Taiwan arms package;
House Committee issues recs to deter China from attacking Taiwan;
China supports Venezuela amid U.S. pressure;
U.S. and China boost counternarcotics cooperation;
Chinese firms move to Singapore to avoid U.S. tariffs
The continued push for a Kremlin-backed messaging app;
Hamas hearts Al-Jazeera...
...As the BBC's bias is exposed;
Australia tightens social media guidelines;
U.S. army focuses on disinformation
The Ukraine war's criminal veterans;
Russia's unguided hybrid war;
No love lost in Russia;
MI6 warns the west
U.S. special forces seize Chinese military cargo bound for Iran;
Man pleads guilty to smuggling $160 million in AI chips to China;
PLA fighters lock radar on Japanese jets;
Chinese and Russian bombers hold joint drills near Japan;
China's $1T surplus prompts criticism...
... And levies from Mexico, Europe