South Korea martial law debacle leaves U.S. regional priorities in doubt;
Signs of a thaw between Washington and Phnom Penh;
Thailand has it both ways on space exploration;
North Korean soldiers confirmed dead in Ukraine;
Pacific Island nations tentatively open protected seabeds
Suddenly, Israel has a Syria problem. For years, officials in Jerusalem had banked on a relatively predictable balance of power with the neighboring regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Despite Assad's enduring hostility toward the Jewish state and the inherent weakness of his regime, a tenuous status quo had been struck between the two countries, making it generally possible to anticipate how the Syrian dictator would behave. This has served as a perverse source of comfort over the past 14 months, as Israel has found itself preoccupied with the threat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and more recently, that of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
When might meaningful change come to Iran, and how? Nearly 50 years after the country's last major political transformation – the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's radical Islamist revolt against the monarchy of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi – that question continues to bedevil policymakers, both in Washington and far beyond the Capital Beltway.
Beijing's forward-deployed fortress in the South China Sea;
Indonesia's agreement with Beijing muddies the waters;
U.S.-deployed task force in the Philippines revealed;
Taiwan remains an outsider in Pacific trade agreement
Seeking a post-Assad Modus Vivendi;
Subverting Ukraine from the inside;
Another use for Russia's shadow fleet;
More tyranny of the law
The question of why totalitarian regimes suddenly and unexpectedly collapse has long perplexed researchers, generating no shortage of post-mortems and scholarly analyses after the fact. Accurately predicting the longevity of such regimes is a risky enterprise, and the subject of this report – an examination of how close the regime created by Russian President Vladimir Putin might be to its downfall – is inherently speculative in nature. Yet, as a direct witness to the collapse of the Soviet Union, I have a clear sense of how the sudden collapse of seemingly unshakable power can occur. What follows is my best assessment of the current state of Putin’s regime, drawing on both general observations and extensive personal experience.
U.S., China Locked in AI Arms Race Where There are No Winners
Artificial Intelligence and its Influence in Chinese Military Thought and Operations
A New Age Of Deception In Warfare
The Dual-Use Dilemma in Military AI Advancements
How AI is turbocharging disinformation
U.S. efforts to curb China's access to advanced chips "inadequate";
PRC agents charged for interfering in California election;
PRC nationals caught in Guam before U.S. missile test;
U.S. citizen pleads guilty to running secret PRC police station;
China is creating fake stories about pro-Taiwan U.S. lawmakers
Biden approves $571 million in defense support for Taiwan;
Searching for revenue, China taxes influencers;
Foreign accounting firms now report to the Public Security Bureau;
U.S. citizens can visit China for up to 10 days visa-free;
PLA navy hosts Gulf of Guinea Security Forum
A Rising Cost of Living...;
...And a Growing Energy Crisis;
Tehran's Ties to October 7th;
Iran's Illicit Iraqi Fuel Scheme;
Tehran Loses Ground in Syria
President Xi Jinping has promoted the enhancement of strategic forces, stressing new developmental plans for the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). The U.S. maintains nuclear superiority, but China leads in conventional and hypersonic missile technology.
Somalia, Ethiopia reach historic deal to resolve port dispute;
ECOWAS advances unity with $15.6 billion coastal highway project…;
…And sets exit deadline for Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso
UN launches new effort to break Libya's election impasse;
Rwanda-Congo peace talks collapse
Spies hire Chinese teens to steal state secrets;
Paraguay expels PRC diplomat for Taiwan "interference";
Xi: China should use Mandarin in "border areas";
Canada sanctions eight PRC officials, citing human rights violations;
Accused Chinese spies plead not guilty in London
Assad gets asylum in Moscow...;
...as Moscow scrambles to preserve its Syrian presence;
Prisoners to the (war) front;
NATO mobilizes versus Russia;
Nazi sentiment makes a comeback;
Kadyrov's clout grows
Germany: a target of Russian hybrid war;
How AJ+ is manipulating the Mideast narrative;
AI turbo-charges Russian disinfo...;
...As Brussels gets more serious;
Overreach in El Salvador?
Cairo's kindler, gentler textbooks;
Hezbollah lives to fight another day;
ISKP takes a dim view of Hamas
For decades, the Greater Middle East has been a leading challenge to American foreign policy. This vast region - ranging from North Africa in the west to Afghanistan in the east, and from the borders of Central Asia down to the Horn of Africa in the south - has been a cauldron of turmoil that has affected not just American interests, but generated threats to the American homeland.
For years, Russia’s main tactic to compete with Western news media has been to create alternative outlets, like its television channel RT (previously Russia Today) and the Sputnik multimedia news agency. Now, however, Moscow is stepping up its efforts in two areas where Western media and foundations have long enjoyed an advantage: journalism training and fact-checking.
Biden visits Angola in final push to bolster U.S.-Africa ties;
Chad ends defense pact with France…;
…While Abuja and Paris strengthen economic ties;
Burkina Faso’s latest junta dissolves government;
Mali drone strikes target Tuareg leaders after rebels unite;
Xi visits Morocco, deepens economic ties
Kremlin worries over domestic unrest
Still more foreign fodder for Russia's war;
A delayed economic reckoning...;
...As Putin doubles down
Australia faces fresh extremist threats;
Morocco takes a stand on ties with Israel;
A fatwa against Hamas;
Libya tightens social control;
Baghdad aims to lower age of consent
Russian hackers target Europe...;
...And Japan;
Russia returns the favor;
An offensive against Ukrainian energy
What if Russia loses its war on Ukraine? Some consider the question frivolous because, as President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan has asserted, “Russia cannot be defeated in a military sense.” Such thinking has prompted Tokayev, as well as many in the West, to advocate for a deal with Putin, one that would more than likely result in Kyiv’s loss of land that the United Nations, the United States, and Europe all consider Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
Xi purges two top PLA Navy leaders;
China completes massive "green wall" around Taklamakan desert;
Record $83 billion gold deposit found in Hunan;
China warns New Zealand not to join AUKUSA;
Taiwan's new president transits Hawaii and Guam
The U.S. Congress still has a month of legislating ahead. If current conditions hold, China policy appears poised to dominate a significant portion of Capitol Hill’s time. In September, House Speaker Mike Johnson telegraphed his desire to restrict U.S. outbound investment to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and moves in this direction are expected this fall.
Pakistan edged out of BRICS
Modi, Xi meet to resolve border row, reset relations;
Dhaka's new government cleans house;
The Maldives navigates troubled regional waters
On November 28, 2024, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party explicitly announced a change in Georgia's foreign policy trajectory, despite overwhelming public opposition to turning away from European integration.
As Georgia approaches parliamentary elections in October 2024, the South Caucasus state stands at a pivotal juncture.
Moscow takes aim at "childfree propaganda"...;
...And works to isolate its internet;
China's spy agency wades into the media fight...;
...As google fights Chinese fake news;
Iran's latest propaganda offensive, exposed
When the second Trump administration takes office next month, it will face a thoroughly crowded Mideast agenda. Near-term priorities for the new White House include helping Israel to wind down its war in Gaza, resuscitating the Abraham Accords, and reviving a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran. But arguably the most pressing item confronting Team Trump will be changing the status quo in the Red Sea.
The U.S. Space Force’s plan to deorbit Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) satellites presents a strategic opportunity to advance defense partnerships.
Jakarta walks fine line with military exercises...;
...While Laos doubles down on cooperation with Beijing;
Australia, Pacific Islands respond to China's police presence;
Tokyo takes steps to shore up territorial control;
Manila takes a stand
FSB claims tactical victory in Crimea;
A Western warning regarding the emerging axis...;
...As cracks appear in Russo-Iranian cooperation;
Is Russia's opposition organizing?;
Moscow messes with Baltic communications;
Russia on Israel's doorstep
China launches $3.5 billion megaport in Peru;
China is making armed drones for Russia to use in Ukraine;
The Ministry of State Security's growing power and purview;
PRC hacks telecom data of senior U.S. officials, campaign staff...;
...As Chinese hackers target Tibetan websites
Western observers are neglecting important developments: Judging by what is being said on Russia’s home front, Putin has already lost the war and the only question is what face-saving measures can be extracted through a settlement.
The Biden administration has loosened some restrictions on how Ukraine can use U.S.-supplied missiles in its ongoing war with Russia. But this move is too little, too late.
UK sanctions Russian mercenaries in Africa;
Mozambique election sparks protests, crackdown;
Russia expands military footprint in Equatorial Guinea;
Alliance of change wins big in Mauritius;
UN again calls for a ceasefire in Sudan;
Opposition leader clinches victory in Somaliland's presidential election
President-elect Trump will likely transform U.S.-Israeli relations — and U.S. relations across the Middle East — by providing more military and diplomatic support for Israel, working to weaken Israel’s adversaries and pursuing more Arab-Israeli peacemaking.
America is often called a nation of problem-solvers. So it's not surprising that, virtually from the start of Israel's war with Hamas last fall, U.S. officials have been pressing Israel to lay out a plan for a "day after" in the Gaza Strip.
Moscow, Minsk make strategic plans;
A Russian terror plot?;
Moscow makes strides in Latin America;
Target: Seoul;
A mounting human cost...;
...Drains regional coffers
PMG balances China and Australia;
Market risk boosts southeast Asia as semiconductor hub;
Washington seeks improved relations with Bangladesh;
U.S. turns to Asian allies for ship-building capacity;
China exports surveillance tech to Myanmar
How Moscow is helping the Houthis;
Mounting signs of economic malaise;
Turmoil in the Caucasus;
A radical in the ranks
The incoming administration has a unique opportunity to cultivate a dynamic partnership with Africa that transcends conventional diplomacy, intensifies economic ties, balances security commitments, and revitalizes development efforts
China invests $50 billion in Hainan's military infrastructure;
Huawei obtains advanced AI chips despite U.S. export controls;
China's military uses Meta's Llama to build an AI model;
China tightens its grip on rare minerals needed to make chips;
Indonesia wants more high-speed rail financing from China
New sanctions target Hamas fundraising;
Israel eyes a Somaliland base to counter the Houthis;
Russia ponders how to deal with extremists...;
...amid fear and loathing in the Caucasus;
The ISIS marriage trade
Russian propaganda targets Africa's health sector;
South Africa downgrades its Taiwan diplomacy;
Kenya's political shakeup;
Hungary makes a deal with Chad…;
…While Chad launches military operation
The campaign of terror carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, succeeded in denting Israel's aura of military invincibility, while the resulting conflict in Gaza helped isolate Jerusalem on the world stage. Israel's normalization with the Gulf States, which had started to profoundly marginalize the Islamic Republic, also seemed to be a casualty of the new war. Meanwhile, timid American regional policy, and the Biden administration's overriding fear of a wider Mideast war, led to a persistent failure on Washington's part to hold Tehran accountable for its regional troublemaking.