Global Islamism Monitor No. 119
The Taliban's expanding international profile;
Palestinian public opinion begins to shift, finally;
Islamism surges in Somalia;
Flashpoint: West Africa
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Publications
America Needs To Revive the ‘Arsenal of Democracy’
Whoever ends up winning the White House next month will need to reframe the way America thinks about Great Power Competition in order to adequately respond to the collective threat now posed by Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. Doing so will begin by answering a fateful question—Is the United States still prepared to serve as the "arsenal of democracy"?
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2648
Thinking creatively about penalizing Russia;
Trouble in the Russian oil trade;
Moscow meddles in Armenia;
Russia is running out of resources
Africa Political Monitor No. 37
Harsh justice following failed Congo coup;
Islamist violence flares in Bamako…;
…As U.S. special forces make their way back to Chad;
Nigeria’s APC ekes out a political win;
In Burkina Faso, civilian casualties surge…;
…And conspiracy theories abound;
Clearing the political decks in Tanzania
China’s Instrusive VP Debate Antics
During the vice presidential debate between Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), viewers in the People’s Republic of China experienced a broadcast interruption. When the CBS moderators asked Gov. Walz about discrepancies regarding his story of being in China during the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the video feed throughout China cut to an error screen. This “error” was, of course, the latest instance of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) censors silencing speech about sensitive topics within China.
Global Islamism Monitor No. 118
A Houthi headache...;
...Amid muddled U.S. policy;
Sweden and Turkey turn the page;
Islamist trouble in Russia's heartland
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2647
A quid pro quo for Tehran: nuclear assistance;
A tussle over Tbilisi's political direction;
A scandal in Chisinau;
Moscow's ominous new nuclear doctrine
Reacting to Major Space Events on the Moon and in Cislunar Space - After Action Report 2
This report details the outcomes of a series of high-stakes, seminar-style wargames conducted by a simulated National Space Council (NSpC) to address potential near-term space-related scenarios that could significantly impact U.S. public perception, resourcing, and policy.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2646,
A step forward for the Kremlin in Africa;
The limits of Turkish support;
NATO beefs up arctic defenses against Russia;
Russia counterattacks in Kursk;
How Russian education is suffering
China Policy Monitor No. 1609
U.S. disrupts vast PRC hacking operation;
Fiji calls in Australia to thwart PRC hackers;
U.S. to ban Chinese software, hardware in vehicles;
As births fall and the economy slows, dairy farms swim in milk;
China fines PWC $62 million for auditing Evergrande
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 237
No country for journalists;
Iran's cyber-warriors target Iraq;
The long arm of the regime;
Tehran focuses on Israel's eastern flank;
New Iranian missiles for Moscow...;
...and a fresh framework for bilateral cooperation
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2645
Another casualty of Russia's war;
Putin swells the size of Russia's military...;
...And updates its nuclear posture
When Nations Clash, Children Suffer: Unpacking China’s Abortion Ban
On Sept. 4, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs announced that China would no longer carry out foreign adoption work, except for a few narrow exceptions. In turn, the U.S. Department of State notified American families, many of whom had already been matched with children in China years ago and were just waiting to bring their kids home.
With this devastating announcement, China has nullified the bond that American families had with their waiting children. For the families affected, it is a waking nightmare. For the U.S., it is the latest failure of Washington to tame the worst impulses of the Chinese Communist Party.
China Policy Monitor No. 1608
Ex-CIA officer who spied for China is sentenced to 10 years;
U.S. companies see record-low profits in China, cut investment;
ROK military removes PRC-made cameras from military bases;
Germany sails first warships through Taiwan Strait in 22 years;
China provides training and funds for Myanmar junta police
Africa Political Monitor No. 36
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive roils Russia's African presence;
UN accuses SAF and RSF of war crimes, calls for peacekeepers;
Mpox cases soar in Africa;
GERD dam a flashpoint between Ethiopia and Egypt;
A fraught election in Algiers
Global Islamism Monitor No. 117
Bangladesh frees terror leader...;
...As worries swirl over Dhaka's direction;
Germany expels Iranian religious leader;
A Hamas rebound in northern Gaza?;
Jordan's new political balance;
Preparing for a northern front
Information Warfare Watch No. 39
Turkey turns up the heat;
Russia blocks YouTube, finally;
Hamas weaponizes war messaging...;
...And manipulates Palestinian public opinion
Identifying the Next TikTok: Which Apps Could Washington Target Next?
Congress passed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (the Act). The Act specifically mentions ByteDance and TikTok, which means that they and their subsidiaries are required to divest. However, the law's scope is not limited to just TikTok and ByteDance. The Act broadly applies foreign ownership restrictions to apps operating within the United States. Specific attention is given in this paper to WeChat and Temu.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2644
Nationalist sentiment, regional divisions resurface;
Russia's youth rage against the war machine;
Nervous in Norway;
Europe draws a red line...;
...As Moscow leans into its alliance with Tehran
China Policy Monitor No. 1607
China should take its land back from Russia – Taipei;
Former aide to New York governors was a Chinese agent;
South Korean official sold secrets to China;
To build a "strong military," China merges its top shipbuilders;
China expands its polar presence
The US sends wrong signals on Israel and democracy
President Biden recently declared that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not doing enough to reach a deal with Hamas to free the hostages the terrorist organization has been holding since last Oct. 7. This pronouncement was both ill-targeted and ill-timed, proving once again that Washington often doesn’t know when and when not to meddle in the affairs of other nations.
Rising Stakes in Tbilisi As Elections Approach
As Georgia approaches parliamentary elections in October 2024, the South Caucasus state stands at a pivotal juncture. The growing authoritarian tendencies of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party threaten to derail the nation’s democratic progress, and its aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration. In this critical moment, the United States needs to act decisively by leveraging congressional measures to support Georgia’s democratic institutions and counter authoritarian influences there.
The Fight For Informational Freedom Is Moving To Space
The more nations there are connected to China's satellites, the smaller the global audience share left for Starlink or other Western conglomerates will be. Conversely, if Starlink succeeds in its current bid to make gains in places like Africa and Latin America, it will create an inherently pluralistic, open global media environment—one in which it will be much more difficult for the PRC to propagandize, isolate, and influence. Only one of those pathways benefits American security. It's up to policymakers in Washington to empower it.
Resource Security Watch No. 57
Sudan's humanitarian crisis deepens;
Economic collapse fuels starvation in Yemen;
A looming environmental disaster in the Red Sea;
Reinforcing northern NATO allies
Information Warfare Watch No. 38
The complicated case of Pavel Durov...;
...Upends the Kremlin's military comms;
Looking for deterrence in all the wrong places;
Iran sets its sights on the internet... again
Russians are waking up to Putin’s Ukraine folly
What all this might mean for Russia is still too early to tell. Policymakers in Moscow have initiated an array of measures in response to the Ukrainian incursion, ranging from declaring a state of emergency in Kursk as well as the neighboring Belgorod region, surging troops into the area, and creating new administrative units to manage the crisis). Still, as NATO officials have noted, Russia’s official response has been “slow and scattered” — at least so far. Whether it stays that way is still an open question.
Defense Technology Monitor No. 103
Seeking innovations in quantum material;
An AI satellite investigator;
The next generation of loitering munitions;
The air force streamlines its EW updates;
A success for space tracking
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2643
In Russia, the war narrative is changing...;
...As revolt simmers in the ranks;
Another "undesirable," this time with a familiar name;
China Policy Monitor No. 1606
PRC hackers infect Russian government agencies;
China admits its ship destroyed key Baltic gas pipeline;
China’s AI-driven bot network aims to "deepens polarization";
U.S. adds 42 PRC firms to its trade restriction list;
Man punished for browsing overseas websites four years ago
Africa Political Monitor No. 35
Sudan peace talks commence despite absent parties;
Mali, Niger sever ties with Ukraine after Wagner group deaths;
Somalia-Ethiopia talks show progress;
Landmark trial finds LRA commander guilty of crimes against humanity;
Franco-Algerian tensions rise over Western Sahara dispute
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Has Revealed Russia’s Military Weakness
Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has taken its fight with the Kremlin onto Russian soil. Kyiv’s offensive consisted of a daring raid into Russia’s Kursk region designed to bring the fight to Russian forces and draw the Kremlin’s combat troops away from its own territory. Aside from a few headlines, though, Ukraine’s bold strategic gamble has gone largely unnoticed. That’s a shame because Kyiv’s initiative—and Moscow’s response to it—has made clear that persistent Western fears of Russian brinkmanship are overblown.
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 19
A Bangladeshi lash-up with the PRC...;
...As Dhaka's premier is shown the door;
India interdicts chemical agent flows to Pakistan;
More Indians in space
Information Warfare Watch No. 37
New Russian messaging maneuvers...;
...And a Kremlin coverup?;
Iran's AI-driven disinfo;
Giving Iranian propaganda a pass
China Policy Monitor No. 1605
American firms help China skirt U.S. chip bans;
Chinese criminals launder fentanyl cash for Mexican cartels;
China's industrial parks turn to cash to lure foreign firms;
China launches satellites to rival SpaceX's Starlink;
China-funded canal to connect Phnom Penh to the gulf of Thailand
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2642
Still more Soviet nostalgia;
Moscow keeps fathers at the front...;
...And goes after deserters;
A haven from Western "wokeness"
China Policy Monitor No. 1604
State pension funds dump PRC investments;
TikTok illegally collects children's data – U.S. Dept of Justice;
China issues new fentanyl regulations;
Less Chinese are getting married;
With debts mounting, localities chase back taxes
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2641
Cracks in Russia's fiscal facade;
Russian soldiers eye the exits;
Ukraine's new offensive…;
…And its immediate impact;
No room for non-Russians;
Russian profits, Kyiv's gain
A Political Inflection Point in Georgia
The Republic of Georgia faces a critical juncture ahead of parliamentary elections in October 2024 as escalating political tensions, driven by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party's increasingly authoritarian tendencies, threaten the country’s democratic future and its pro-Western trajectory. This situation demands a nuanced understanding of Georgia's complex political landscape and a strategic response from Western partners.
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 236
The Islamic Republic sets its sights on the Hashemite Kingdom;
Thinking beyond "Noor";
A new round of Iranian cyber-spying...;
...As Israel-Iran tensions go digital
Russia Has Already Lost in Ukraine
Whatever the cause, this sense of momentum has led the Kremlin to rebuff recent Ukrainian peace overtures, and to stake out a maximalist position as a prerequisite for any negotiations with Kyiv. But Moscow's triumphalism masks a more sobering reality—by almost every empirical measure, Russia's war of choice has proven ruinous for the Kremlin.
Defense Technology Monitor No. 102
Trust, trickery and A.I.;
High energy hurdles to overcome;
The unintended civilian consequences of electronic warfare...;
...May be solved by quantum tech;
Rethinking warp speed travel
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 18
India eyes the semiconductor market;
A political reshuffle in Nepal;
India banks on Megaport to reboot its Europe trade plans;
Modi heads to Moscow
China Policy Monitor No. 1603
A national internet I.D. system;
Loyalty training for Chinese pastors;
State-owned enterprises invest $414bn in new equipment;
Germany the latest to accuse China of cyberattacks;
State banks sign $50b in deals with Saudi wealth fund
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2640
How Russia is covering up its war losses;
Hard times for Moscow's mercs in Africa;
Russia's modern exiles
Washington Must Prevent A Saudi Nuclear Program
Under a landmark U.S.-Saudi security deal that the Biden administration is reportedly finalizing, the United States could be closer than ever to jumpstarting Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program –– and brushing off more than a decade of warnings not to.
Putin’s ‘War of Choice’ In Ukraine Could Mean Russia’s ‘Outright Ruin’
Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has experienced a massive population exodus.
Africa Political Monitor No. 34
Sudan displacement crisis worsens as war continues;
Turkey seeks uranium… in Niger;
Amid coups and corruption, African support for democracy wanes;
Saied announces re-election bid
China Policy Monitor No. 1602
Chinese and Russian bombers off Alaskan coast;
High-schools, universities further restrict foreign travel;
Manila shutters Chinese-run online gambling outfits;
Hong Kong helps Russia avoid sanctions;
China brokers Palestinian reconciliation deal
Information Warfare Watch No. 36
A surge of disinfo in South Asia;
AI deepfakes still a future problem – for now;
Finally, Moscow takes aim at YouTube;
Russia's revamped disinformation strategy
4 reasons everyone should oppose a Hamas-Fatah government
The new agreement between the terrorist group Hamas and Fatah, the political party of the Palestinian Authority, to form a unity government would — if implemented — threaten Israel, hurt the Palestinian people and create new obstacles to Israeli-Palestinian peace. No one who seeks peace should support it.