Defense Technology Monitor No. 103
Seeking innovations in quantum material;
An AI satellite investigator;
The next generation of loitering munitions;
The air force streamlines its EW updates;
A success for space tracking
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Publications
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2643
In Russia, the war narrative is changing...;
...As revolt simmers in the ranks;
Another "undesirable," this time with a familiar name;
China Policy Monitor No. 1606
PRC hackers infect Russian government agencies;
China admits its ship destroyed key Baltic gas pipeline;
China’s AI-driven bot network aims to "deepens polarization";
U.S. adds 42 PRC firms to its trade restriction list;
Man punished for browsing overseas websites four years ago
Africa Political Monitor No. 35
Sudan peace talks commence despite absent parties;
Mali, Niger sever ties with Ukraine after Wagner group deaths;
Somalia-Ethiopia talks show progress;
Landmark trial finds LRA commander guilty of crimes against humanity;
Franco-Algerian tensions rise over Western Sahara dispute
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Has Revealed Russia’s Military Weakness
Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has taken its fight with the Kremlin onto Russian soil. Kyiv’s offensive consisted of a daring raid into Russia’s Kursk region designed to bring the fight to Russian forces and draw the Kremlin’s combat troops away from its own territory. Aside from a few headlines, though, Ukraine’s bold strategic gamble has gone largely unnoticed. That’s a shame because Kyiv’s initiative—and Moscow’s response to it—has made clear that persistent Western fears of Russian brinkmanship are overblown.
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 19
A Bangladeshi lash-up with the PRC...;
...As Dhaka's premier is shown the door;
India interdicts chemical agent flows to Pakistan;
More Indians in space
Information Warfare Watch No. 37
New Russian messaging maneuvers...;
...And a Kremlin coverup?;
Iran's AI-driven disinfo;
Giving Iranian propaganda a pass
China Policy Monitor No. 1605
American firms help China skirt U.S. chip bans;
Chinese criminals launder fentanyl cash for Mexican cartels;
China's industrial parks turn to cash to lure foreign firms;
China launches satellites to rival SpaceX's Starlink;
China-funded canal to connect Phnom Penh to the gulf of Thailand
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2642
Still more Soviet nostalgia;
Moscow keeps fathers at the front...;
...And goes after deserters;
A haven from Western "wokeness"
China Policy Monitor No. 1604
State pension funds dump PRC investments;
TikTok illegally collects children's data – U.S. Dept of Justice;
China issues new fentanyl regulations;
Less Chinese are getting married;
With debts mounting, localities chase back taxes
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2641
Cracks in Russia's fiscal facade;
Russian soldiers eye the exits;
Ukraine's new offensive…;
…And its immediate impact;
No room for non-Russians;
Russian profits, Kyiv's gain
A Political Inflection Point in Georgia
The Republic of Georgia faces a critical juncture ahead of parliamentary elections in October 2024 as escalating political tensions, driven by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party's increasingly authoritarian tendencies, threaten the country’s democratic future and its pro-Western trajectory. This situation demands a nuanced understanding of Georgia's complex political landscape and a strategic response from Western partners.
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 236
The Islamic Republic sets its sights on the Hashemite Kingdom;
Thinking beyond "Noor";
A new round of Iranian cyber-spying...;
...As Israel-Iran tensions go digital
Russia Has Already Lost in Ukraine
Whatever the cause, this sense of momentum has led the Kremlin to rebuff recent Ukrainian peace overtures, and to stake out a maximalist position as a prerequisite for any negotiations with Kyiv. But Moscow's triumphalism masks a more sobering reality—by almost every empirical measure, Russia's war of choice has proven ruinous for the Kremlin.
Defense Technology Monitor No. 102
Trust, trickery and A.I.;
High energy hurdles to overcome;
The unintended civilian consequences of electronic warfare...;
...May be solved by quantum tech;
Rethinking warp speed travel
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 18
India eyes the semiconductor market;
A political reshuffle in Nepal;
India banks on Megaport to reboot its Europe trade plans;
Modi heads to Moscow
China Policy Monitor No. 1603
A national internet I.D. system;
Loyalty training for Chinese pastors;
State-owned enterprises invest $414bn in new equipment;
Germany the latest to accuse China of cyberattacks;
State banks sign $50b in deals with Saudi wealth fund
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2640
How Russia is covering up its war losses;
Hard times for Moscow's mercs in Africa;
Russia's modern exiles
Washington Must Prevent A Saudi Nuclear Program
Under a landmark U.S.-Saudi security deal that the Biden administration is reportedly finalizing, the United States could be closer than ever to jumpstarting Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program –– and brushing off more than a decade of warnings not to.
Putin’s ‘War of Choice’ In Ukraine Could Mean Russia’s ‘Outright Ruin’
Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has experienced a massive population exodus.
Africa Political Monitor No. 34
Sudan displacement crisis worsens as war continues;
Turkey seeks uranium… in Niger;
Amid coups and corruption, African support for democracy wanes;
Saied announces re-election bid
China Policy Monitor No. 1602
Chinese and Russian bombers off Alaskan coast;
High-schools, universities further restrict foreign travel;
Manila shutters Chinese-run online gambling outfits;
Hong Kong helps Russia avoid sanctions;
China brokers Palestinian reconciliation deal
Information Warfare Watch No. 36
A surge of disinfo in South Asia;
AI deepfakes still a future problem – for now;
Finally, Moscow takes aim at YouTube;
Russia's revamped disinformation strategy
4 reasons everyone should oppose a Hamas-Fatah government
The new agreement between the terrorist group Hamas and Fatah, the political party of the Palestinian Authority, to form a unity government would — if implemented — threaten Israel, hurt the Palestinian people and create new obstacles to Israeli-Palestinian peace. No one who seeks peace should support it.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2639
The Houthis take aim at Moscow;
Sino-Russian cooperation in the South China Sea… and beyond;
Medvedev warns against Ukraine's NATO membership;
The cost of Russian crypto-mining
India’s Maritime Imperative
…supporting an enhancement of India's naval capabilities marks the logical next step. It aligns with America's interest in countering an increasingly assertive China, and it helps to deepen the already-robust bilateral ties between Washington and New Delhi.
How To Strike Back Against The Houthis
Up to now, Washington and its international partners have been loath to retaliate forcefully to Houthi aggression, fearful of precipitating a wider Mideast war. But the lack of a serious Western response has only emboldened the Houthis further, to the point where the group is now threatening to target America's regional presence directly.
China Policy Monitor No. 1601
U.S. Coast Guard shadows PLA Navy near Aleutian Islands;
Cheap robotaxis spark anxiety among cabbies;
China's population is 100M less than official data claims;
Cooking oil scandal prompts residents to buy oil presses;
China and Philippines reach deal to stop SCS clashes
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2638
Now, the Kremlin takes aim at Navaly's widow;
A new bargain with New Delhi;
New tradecraft for Russia's spies
Resource Security Watch No. 56
For Kyiv, necessity is the mother of (energy) invention;
The real state of food insecurity in the Gaza Strip;
Eastern Europe tilts back toward coal;
China's energy drive
Ukraine Reform Monitor No. 13
Assessing Ukraine's anti-corruption progress;
Speaking the language of commerce
Why Military-To-Military Communication With China Won’t Stop A War
As such, the current discussion about strengthening lines of communication is little more than political theater.
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2637
After Dagestan attack, a war on "Wahhabism";
Russia's secretive courts;
How the war has come to (some parts of) Russia;
Moscow tilts even further east
China Policy Monitor No. 1600
China and Belarus conduct military exercises on NATO's doorstep;
China the "decisive enabler" of Russia's war on Ukraine – NATO;
Germany bans Chinese telecom giants from 5G;
China builds a military base in Tajikistan;
PRC-state hackers behind online theft – Australia
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 235
SPECIAL ISSUE: A NEW IRANIAN PRESIDENT
More breathing room for Iranian society…;
…But no deviation from revolutionary principles;
A lack of confidence in the regime;
New nuclear diplomacy with the West?
China Policy Monitor No. 1599
United Front targets Taiwan's religious temples;
Taiwanese navy officer indicted for giving intel to China;
China cuts bankers' pay;
U.S. puts tariffs on PRC steel and aluminum routed via Mexico;
Japan to subsidize antibiotics to reduce reliance on China
Global Islamism Monitor No. 116
An Iranian hand in the October 7th atrocities…;
…And post-10/7 radical Islam;
Qatar's intolerant teachings;
A policy shift in Buenos Aires
Afghanistan Is Still There
Since the U.S.'s abrupt departure from Afghanistan, the Taliban government has opened exten- sive contacts with China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, and the Gulf States and some have elevated their ties to the ambassadorial level. No region has more at stake in Afghanistan's evolution than Central Asia and none follow developments there more closely. The U.S. should expand its C5+1 ties with Central Asia to include the sharing of information and discussion of policy choices re- garding Afghanistan. Europe and other friendly powers should do likewise.
Africa Political Monitor No. 33
Sahel military regimes cement break from ECOWAS;
China-backed pipeline project in Niger under threat;
Ramaphosa's coalition gamble;
Violence deepens crisis in Burkina Faso;
Washington seeks new allies amid African counterterrorism setbacks
Masoud Pezeshkian: Iran’s New ‘Moderate’ President Could Be A Disappointment
Nor would Pezeshkian be the first “moderate” Iranian president to disappoint those hoping for real change in Tehran.
Today’s Antisemitism Is a National Security Threat
Iran's involvement is just part of a much larger story. All of the available evidence suggests that today's "pro-Palestine" activism is an instrument of statecraft—one that is actively being weaponized against the U.S. by an array of hostile actors.
Indo-Pacific Monitor No. 37
Vietnamese President resigns amid anti-corruption campaign;
In break from pacifist principles, Japan approves plan to sell jets;
Malaysia rises as crucial link in chip supply chain...;
...While maintaining cooperation with Beijing;
U.S., Japan, Philippines plan joint South China Sea patrols
The Problems Still Plaguing NATO
This week’s NATO summit in Washington is, by any measure, a grand affair, full of the pomp and ceremony befitting the bloc’s 75th anniversary. It also offers up a useful opportunity to reflect on the state of the most successful military alliance in history.
At 75, The World Still Needs The NATO Alliance
Deterrence and containment are as critical to U.S. global strategy today as they were during the Cold War. NATO has been a lynchpin in that strategic effort.
Global Islamism Monitor No. 115
Now, the Gulf normalizes Hezbollah;
A dangerous blind spot in Moscow;
Flashpoint: Nigeria;
Iran seeks a broader anti-Israel front
Russia Policy Monitor No. 2636
Moscow's youngest victims;
Kakhovka, a year on;
Russian leadership: all in the family;
Moscow, Pyongyang make common cause;
Russian nuclear power translates to global influence
Reacting to Major Space Events at or Below Geostationary Orbit - After Action Report 1
This report details the outcomes of a series of high-stakes, seminar-style wargames conducted by a simulated National Space Council (NSpC) to address potential near-term space-related scenarios that could significantly impact U.S. public perception, resourcing, and policy.
Africa Political Monitor No. 32
Moscow makes gains in West Africa;
A historic shift in South African politics;
UN Security Council extends arms embargo on South Sudan;
Washington on the back foot in West Africa;
Tax protests roil Kenya
Information Warfare Watch No. 35
Russian disinfo targets France's election...;
...And the Summer Olympics;
Israel versus hostile media
South Asia Strategy Monitor No. 17
A chastened Modi starts his third term;
India leverages its ties to Bangladesh;
Pakistan's terrorism troubles;
The Taliban's drift toward international acceptance