Publications

South Asia Strategy Monitor No.9

July 17, 2023 Rehna Sheth

India, U.S. boost defense ties;
Pakistan cashes in on Russia's energy sell-off;
Counterterrorism worries push China, Iran, Pakistan together;
Nepal works to improve tepid ties to India...;
...As Delhi flexes its maritime muscle

China Reform Monitor No.1557

July 12, 2023 Ilan I. Berman

China's millionaire exodus;
China records fewest marriages in more than three decades;
China is recruiting Canadians online;
China and Pakistan sign $4.8 billion nuclear power deal;
U.S. files charges against Chinese fentanyl makers

US Needs More Holistic Response to Emerging Axis

July 12, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas The Messenger

With NATO’s latest gathering this week in Vilnius, Washington is understandably focused on what the United States and its allies should do next to help Ukraine rebuff Russia. Moscow’s invasion, however, is part of a larger, multi-nation challenge to which Washington has not yet developed a comprehensive response.

That challenge is the axis of deepening diplomatic, military, and economic cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran. Washington is responding to individual provocations in ways that seem to contradict one another.

The Fallout From Prigozhin’s Putsch

July 5, 2023 Ilan I. Berman The Messenger

[T]he long-term consequences of Prighozin’s power play are liable to be profound. Here are a trio of what could be the most consequential for Russian foreign policy — and for Western nations now marshalling a response to its aggression, both in Europe and beyond.

China Reform Monitor No.1556

July 5, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

China's Xi backs Palestine statehood;
China's gaokao exam tests Xi Jinping thought;
U.S., China revive drug control talks ahead of Blinken visit;
China expands open-source intelligence collection in the U.S.;
Thousands of Chinese entering the U.S. illegally

Indo-Pacific Monitor No.32

July 5, 2023

Washington solidifies Pacific presence;
Cambodia's Hun Sen throttles opposition parties again;
Malaysia snubs Western concerns, welcomes Huawei;
Canberra bolsters Manila's maritime awareness;
China boosts military cooperation with Laos

Turkey’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble

June 28, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

These are heady days for Turkey's president. Last month, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country's larger-than-life strongman, eked out an electoral win over opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu to secure a third five-year term in office. In the process, he dashed the hopes of many in the West for a more democratic turn on the part of NATO's only Middle Eastern member.

China Reform Monitor No. 1555

June 27, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

China has had spy base in Cuba since at least 2019;
Enforcers of One-Child Policy now seek a "birth-friendly society";
China's new conscription rules;
Asean to hold first joint military exercise in South China Sea; 
Diplomatic tensions with Seoul

End Game in Central Asia

June 26, 2023 S. Frederick Starr AFPC Insights

Central Asians have no intention to roll back their ties with their large neighbors, but seek rather to balance them with ties with the West... America now has before it what may be the last, best chance to prevent the region from being dominated by autocratic outsiders.

China Reform Monitor No. 1554

June 26, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

German fighter pilots are training PLA pilots in China; 

U.S. sanctions Chinese firms over fentanyl-making equipment; 

Thousands of China Muslims defend their mosque; 

Chinese fighter jet buzzes U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft; 

Chinese warship nearly collides with U.S. with U.S. destroyer in Taiwan Strait 

A Roadmap for Taking on Tehran

June 23, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas Newsweek

With Washington resuming indirect talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, opponents of the 2015 nuclear deal in the United States and abroad are raising legitimate fears that Washington will provide the Islamic Republic with sanctions relief while getting little, if anything, in return. And who can blame them?

China Reform Monitor No. 1553

June 19, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

North Korea builds China border wall;
China's youth unemployment hits record high;
China's spies sought to infiltrate Alaskan military bases;
Chinese hackers hit Kenya's government;
China simulates hypersonic strike on U.S. carrier group

China Reform Monitor No.1552

June 12, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

Missions in China warned over "propaganda" displays;
Canada expels PRC diplomat for gathering intel on MP's family;
Amsterdam should "push europe to uphold strategic autonomy";
China closes thousands of websites and removes dozens of apps;
Mexican President offers proof China shipping illegal fentanyl

Seeing Our Adversaries With Clear Eyes

June 9, 2023 Lawrence J. Haas 19fortyfive.com

To be sure, our leaders must engage not just with democratic allies but with autocrats in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and elsewhere. Presidents are wise to seek meetings in which to enunciate our values, delineate our priorities, glean what we can from our adversaries, and seek cooperation when possible.

The Ukraine Peace Offensive

June 2, 2023 James S. Robbins AFPC Insights

In some respects, the diplomatic peace offensive is as important as the Ukrainian ground offensive, because conflict termination will ultimately come from the bargaining table and not the battlefield. This phase of the conflict is critical.

New Rules in Israel’s North

May 16, 2023 Ilan I. Berman Newsweek

Between mid-March and mid-April, Israel's northern frontier experienced its worst spasm of instability in over a decade-and-a-half. On March 13, an armed extremist connected to Hezbollah infiltrated the country and blew up a car at the Megiddo junction, some 50 miles south of the Israeli-Lebanese border. Three weeks later, over the Passover holiday, the Hamas terrorist group launched a salvo of 36 rockets from Lebanese territory against towns and civilian populations in the western Galilee, wounding several and damaging local infrastructure. Two days after that, rockets were launched at Israel from Syria as well.

China Reform Monitor No. 1550

May 15, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

Hong Kong eliminates most elected seats;
Scholz's push for China port deal triggers pushback;
China cracks down on foreign firms, cuts their access to info;
Facing a lack of recruits, China revises conscription law;
U.S. Seeks to "De-risk" its relationship with China: Sullivan

China Reform Monitor No. 1549

May 11, 2023 Joshua Eisenman

Iran in talks with China to acquire sanctioned missile fuel;
China censors AI; 
India's villages program in Arunachal Pradesh angers China;
China's tightening grip on foreign firms hits investment;
China's expands its anti-espionage law